2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Intl Professor]

He needed to read himself some Indian mythology.

True for all of us and I would add aboriginal mythology from everywhere. In my old age I even appreciate the Greeks more. I once moon lighted in the Humanities Department offering a one-time course titled "Future Mythology." Carried, of course, by some interesting students; one was a professional astrologer.

 

[bdy0627]

With today being a green day, TSLA has just traded red-green-red-green for the past 9 sessions in a row. If the pattern continues, tomorrow would be a red day and Wednesday a green day.

Now this is some TA that I can actually understand!

 

[bdy0627]

Thinking about it a bit more.. and I totally agree. But Elon is also pissed at all the negativity and bashing of him personally has his company (employees) in general. Statements like "They really want us die so bad they can taste it" makes me think that Elon is going to be spiking the ball in the end zone soon. This ramp is going to be big a giant middle finger to all the naysayers and FUDsters. Normally I wouldnt think he would care but recent comments like the one above lead me to believe he wants a big win here. This is another reason for a beat on the original guidance. I am not talking bout big beats, just a smoother ramp to 4-5K a week by Dec.

Elon Musk on Twitter

I tend to agree with this. I believe he has laid out expectations for the M3 ramp that he is very confident will be beat, perhaps substantially.

 

[Turing]

Thinking about it a bit more.. and I totally agree. But Elon is also pissed at all the negativity and bashing of him personally has his company (employees) in general. Statements like "They really want us die so bad they can taste it" makes me think that Elon is going to be spiking the ball in the end zone soon. This ramp is going to be big a giant middle finger to all the naysayers and FUDsters. Normally I wouldnt think he would care but recent comments like the one above lead me to believe he wants a big win here. This is another reason for a beat on the original guidance. I am not talking bout big beats, just a smoother ramp to 4-5K a week by Dec.

Elon Musk on Twitter

Using a poker analogy, Elon has essentially created the perfect image to show up with nuts on the model 3 ramp. Wallsteet and even the bullish analysts have all assumed significant delays and slower model 3 ramp than Tesla is aiming for. This of course requires hard execution on the ramp and no "force majeure" bad luck. So who knows if they can pull it off, but the setup is there.

 

[Krugerrand]

I guess this is our buy the rumor sell the news kickoff?

Really tempted to buy a put in a day or two (I'm expecting a bloodbath after the ER). I'll not sell my stock of course. Anyone feel similarly or feel like talking me out of it?

I agree. It feels very much buy the rumor/sell the news. Although, you'll have to define 'bloodbath' for me. Sometimes the stock drops $10 and we lose half the crowd to angina. $10 doesn't even get me cracking an eyelid. It has to drop at least $30 just to get me to yawn.

 

[erthquake]

Using a poker analogy, Elon has essentially created the perfect image to show up with nuts on the model 3 ramp. Wallsteet and even the bullish analysts have all assumed significant delays and slower model 3 ramp than Tesla is aiming for. This of course requires hard execution on the ramp and no "force majeure" bad luck. So who knows if they can pull it off, but the setup is there.

Big floppy (non-mouse) nuts.

 

[neroden]

So that was an interesting day of market action. Straight up in the first six minutes.

Fits with the breakout of an ascending triangle. I think the sellers who were trying to keep the stock under $330 -- probably shorts if Papafox is correct -- ran out of liquidity to do so.

 

[Ameliorate]

Now this is some TA that I can actually understand!

Gambler's fallacy would say tomorrow should be a green day

 

[Waiting4M3]

Using a poker analogy, Elon has essentially created the perfect image to show up with nuts on the model 3 ramp. Wallsteet and even the bullish analysts have all assumed significant delays and slower model 3 ramp than Tesla is aiming for. This of course requires hard execution on the ramp and no "force majeure" bad luck. So who knows if they can pull it off, but the setup is there.

Buy and hold, it's the closest thing to playing as the house. In the short term luck may swing one way or the other, wait long enough, the house always wins

 

[TrendTrader007]

I was fully anticipating an up move this week after last week's constructive consolidation
Pay special attention to MACD crossover today
I daresay SP can't wait to cross $400 in short order and $500+is definitely in sights
This is exactly the time for me to be super aggressive
This is a no lose situation for me and the more I bet the more I'll make
I couldn't resist buying another XXXX @ $340 today to round it up
bring it on baby!
( of course don't take me seriously I'm writing all this pulp fiction for purely entertainment purposes only and this is definitely NOT an advice)

 

[TrendTrader007]

You've got to be an idiot of special kind to bet against this long term chart
Shorts are screwed

 

[TrendTrader007]

Further you've got to be a rare breed of moron totally ignorant of all TA to disregard this totally super awesome cup with handle on quarterly charts which is screaming buy me to short this stock
I predict that shorts are about to get a painful lesson in shorting and betting against EM
This chart plainly states that $1000 a share is coming over the next several quarters

 

[everman]

THERE you are! Great to see you TT007!

 

[TradingInvest]

View attachment 237661 I was fully anticipating an up move this week after last week's constructive consolidation
Pay special attention to MACD crossover today
I daresay SP can't wait to cross $400 in short order and $500+is definitely in sights
This is exactly the time for me to be super aggressive
This is a no lose situation for me and the more I bet the more I'll make
I couldn't resist buying another XXXX @ $340 today to round it up
bring it on baby!
( of course don't take me seriously I'm writing all this pulp fiction for purely entertainment purposes only and this is definitely NOT an advice)

TT007, thanks for all the great posts! For years I read almost every piece from shorts and longs. I follow a list of big shorts, they all stated their reasoning why they shorted TSLA. I found TSLA shorts are basically a bunch of idiots. It's natural for idiots to lose in intelligence games.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

View attachment 237661
I couldn't resist buying another XXXX @ $340 today to round it up

Wait, why would you buy today at $340 when it's been available for the last couple weeks for less than $330? I mean, I think it's a good buy at $340, but it was an even better buy at $320 or even $310.

 

[MitchJi]

I agree. It feels very much buy the rumor/sell the news. Although, you'll have to define 'bloodbath' for me. Sometimes the stock drops $10 and we lose half the crowd to angina. $10 doesn't even get me cracking an eyelid. It has to drop at least $30 just to get me to yawn.

Today the paper value of our portfolio (100% options) increased by $50.6k, which might or might not be worth more than a yawn.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I tend to agree with this. I believe he has laid out expectations for the M3 ramp that he is very confident will be beat, perhaps substantially.

I doubt it. Elon never sandbags his targets. He has usually stated aggressive targets to motivate his staff. It is unlikely that this process has changed. My guess is that he probably has a few kinks left in the manufacturing line or the supply chain and that is why he stated low numbers for a couple of months along with a fast ramp to around 5k per week in December. This is telling his employees and suppliers how long they have to fix the problem.

 

[Alketi]

I doubt it. Elon never sandbags his targets.

This. He's always late because his impossible internal schedule is also his public schedule.

From his biography:

He will pick the most aggressive time schedule imaginable assuming everything goes right, and then accelerate it by assuming that everyone can work harder.

 

[Tslynk67]

We used to have a saying when I was a kid - "Red sky in morning, shepherds warning. Red sky at night, shepherds delight".

I think this can be adapted to "Red chart approaching, myusername posting. Green chart at close, TrendTrader verbose"...

 

[elasalle]

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

So today is gonna be a day of short covering ..