2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[DurandalAI]

It's obviously Phrenology. Isn't that how all the rest of you also pick your stocks based on the lumps in your head? All those other things are fake pseudoscience.

Dr. Krieger picks his CEOs, and thus his stock picks that way.

 

[Bobbyducati]

not a great start. still waiting on that breakout...

 

[JRP3]

Is this what a short squeeze is supposed to look like?

 

[Richgoogol]

Seems like the SP won't go anywhere today..we'll be lucky if it holds above 360

 

[Waiting4M3]

not a great start. still waiting on that breakout...

Is this what a short squeeze is supposed to look like?

Not until we've had our morning dip

 

[jhm]

Blind Faith Price Targets

Twelve-month median BFPT is $435 to $484.

$350 is a great price to accumulate, too soon to pay over $400.

Keep the Faith!

 

[MitchJi]

@mulder1231, do you know whether Jonas attributes any value to Tesla Semi in this valuation?

Tesla's Autonomous Tractor Trailer Will Be the Biggest Thing to Happen in Trucks


"We believe Tesla's truck reveal in September will be one of the biggest catalysts the trucking industry has seen in decades. We also expect Tesla will announce carrier/shipper partners," Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a note on Monday.

Jonas added, "If Tesla opens up its order books and picks up a large number of orders in a short time-frame (we note that relatively unheralded Nikola Motor picked up 8,000 orders in just 6 months), it could set off an arms race among both carriers and incumbent OEMs to get electric, autonomous trucks to market."

Tesla Inc. is developing a long-haul, electric semi-truck with autonomous driving capabilities that move in "platoons" and automatically follow the direction of a lead vehicle, Reuters reported recently.

The electric carmaker is said to be nearing the completion of a prototype of the trucks, according to an email obtained by Reuters between Tesla and the Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles.

Edit Addition:
How can incumbent OEM's possible compete with Tesla on semi's? Maybe if they purchase the batteries from Tesla. It sounds like Jonas is on drugs.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Blind Faith Price Targets

Twelve-month median BFPT is $435 to $484.

$350 is a great price to accumulate, too soon to pay over $400.

Keep the Faith!

@jhm - What is the annual dilution assumed in this twelve-month median BFPT range?

Edit: I see now that you used a range of 4% to 8% annual dilution.

FWIW - I estimate 1-3% per year as employee/CEO stock options vest, partially offset by minimal buybacks starting in 2019.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Weekly Pulse Check: Are y'all still doubting my short squeeze call?

LIKE = Bring it on!

FUNNY = You are nuts!

DISLIKE = I want my mommy! (reserved for FUDsters)

Dividend poll has been postponed until further notice.

RESULTS ARE IN!

The ~15 people who voted are dead even in their rating of my expectation of a short squeeze in the coming months.

This represents a deterioration from a 2:1 split between Likes and Funny/Disagree votes on August 8.

I find this very interesting, because since August 8, the stock price has not retracted from a substantial rise following the latest earnings release, and the recent very positive bond issuance has, in my opinion, greatly increased the company's intrinsic value, which should increase the chances of a short squeeze: no more equity secondaries = limited number of available shares that shorts can use to cover their positions.

I should also note that T. Rowe Price, Fidelity, and Morgan Stanley, which sold a combined 10.5 million shares in 2Q17, do not seem to agree with me on my short squeeze expectation.

 

[Reciprocity]

Tesla's Autonomous Tractor Trailer Will Be the Biggest Thing to Happen in Trucks


"We believe Tesla's truck reveal in September will be one of the biggest catalysts the trucking industry has seen in decades. We also expect Tesla will announce carrier/shipper partners," Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a note on Monday.

Jonas added, "If Tesla opens up its order books and picks up a large number of orders in a short time-frame (we note that relatively unheralded Nikola Motor picked up 8,000 orders in just 6 months), it could set off an arms race among both carriers and incumbent OEMs to get electric, autonomous trucks to market."

Tesla Inc. is developing a long-haul, electric semi-truck with autonomous driving capabilities that move in "platoons" and automatically follow the direction of a lead vehicle, Reuters reported recently.

The electric carmaker is said to be nearing the completion of a prototype of the trucks, according to an email obtained by Reuters between Tesla and the Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles.

Edit Addition:
How can incumbent OEM's possible compete with Tesla on semi's? Maybe if they purchase the batteries from Tesla. It sounds like Jonas is on drugs.

The profit is not in the batteries, its in the charging. Tesla would sell the batteries, but no one else will make an actual semi that works, so its a non starter. Tesla wants viable products in the market place, that is why they are making them. They still hope others will follow, keyword being follow.

 

[bdy0627]

not a great start. still waiting on that breakout...

His update today:
$tsla mission critical today. Remember 5/10 ma deviating in terms of up ratio? IF power through 367, see big b/o to 374, then 377.

So, it comes with a pretty big "if" apparently

 

[Bobbyducati]

His update today:
$tsla mission critical today. Remember 5/10 ma deviating in terms of up ratio? IF power through 367, see big b/o to 374, then 377.

So, it comes with a pretty big "if" apparently

working our way back positive... i think if macro stays positive we can hold above. lets see where the day takes us...

 

[bdy0627]

The morning dip is one of the most tradable trends with TSLA. Amazing how it just keeps on happening.

 

[Doit]

We might have the low of the week. Next: $400 by end of September.

 

[Starno]

We might have the low of the week. Next: $400 by end of September.

Logically yes, but I got burned a lot those past few months making that kind of assumptions.

So I'd just say : it depends of the mood of the market, which can be extremely unrelated to fundamentals. On the short term.

 

[bdy0627]

Logically yes, but I got burned a lot those past few months making that kind of assumptions.

So I'd just say : it depends of the mood of the market, which can be extremely unrelated to fundamentals. On the short term.

Yep, very true. Don't assume anything short term.

 

[esk8mw]

Extremely low volume day. Price has been totally pinned for about an hour how. Seems like we will be waiting a while for a catalyst (Sept Semi reveal).

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Extremely low volume day. Price has been totally pinned for about an hour how. Seems like we will be waiting a while for a catalyst (Sept Semi reveal).

TSLA moves when you least expect it.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Since it's a slow news day:

POLL DU JOUR: On which day will Tesla hold its Semi event?

Like: Friday, September 29

Funny: Any day but September 29

Disagree: Anybody who thinks I'm going for most likes/funnies because, unbeknownst to me, the best rating on TMC clearly wins something!

 

[Irishjugg]

@jhm - What is the annual dilution assumed in this twelve-month median BFPT range?

Edit: I see now that you used a range of 4% to 8% annual dilution.

FWIW - I estimate 1-3% per year as employee/CEO stock options vest, partially offset by minimal buybacks starting in 2019.

Buybacks and dividends aren't things that are likely to happen.

Musk has been explicit about this at least in the dividend front. A few people have tried to tell you, but I don't have the interview videos handy. Dividends won't happen with Musk at the helm. Buybacks are extremely unlikely as well. Buybacks are a mechanism of stock price manipulation and don't have any positive effect on the actual company or mission, as such they will continue to be ignored (as they should be)