Interesting bit of observation Friday night at the Fremont factory at around 7-8pm. There were a stream of transport trucks leaving one after another. The strange thing is the ones I saw leaving were not the regular type of double-decker transports. They were boxed and has sufficient length to carry 3. I saw couple of them had promo graphics of transporting exotic cars. So I wonder if there weren't enough of regular transport trucks for hire that Tesla had to hire other car transport companies/drivers to deliver...
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tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
Aha, maybe that explains why Tesla hasn't found a transport truck to travel 900 miles and return my S to me (it's been sitting outside at the service center for seven weeks, idle) and collect this loaner X. But, I digress.
You've been spared the worst of the academic crowd. I've met some, a few were famous, some were colleagues and thus mere nuisances, as they must have viewed me. All are dead.
How many is a stream?
It is hard to imagine that even if M3 were indeed inside those trucks that they could be delivered by the end of September, unless Destination for these trucks was local.
Maybe Tesla will report a large in-transit number of M3s for the end of the qtr.
Well, as much as I would love to see that in their deliveries press release, a typical covered carrier holds 6 cars. So even if stream of trucks was 20 strong, it was just 120 cars.
It seems to me that Baird's estimate of M3 deliveries is right on the money. I also think that MS/MX deliveries will be super strong.
The huge question is how market, with all the anti-Tesla manipulation and generally misinformed participants will react.
It seems to me that Baird's estimate of M3 deliveries is right on the money. I also think that MS/MX deliveries will be super strong.
The huge question is how market, with all the anti-Tesla manipulation and generally misinformed participants will react.
Maybe a wealthy Tesla investor thinking about Christmas presents this year ordered 613 Model 3s, which would bring us to... let's see... 521+613= 1134
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Paracelsus
Active Member
That would be one HELL (1134) of a Christmas present
You can only order two.
I happened to order four because of confusion, but ultimately Tesla said NO and refunded the two extra deposits.
So no matter how wealthy, there is no order of more than two.
It will have to be another, more reasonable wish.
At least we should have some more European delivery numbers to chew on tomorrow before the press release. If anyone is considering some short term plays.
bdy0627
Active Member
How the market reacts is probably going to come down to whether or not the deliveries clearly beat guidance/expectations. From everything I have gathered, Model S/X deliveries should be a solid beat. Not a shocking beat but a solid beat nonetheless. Will that move the stock? Hard to say really. Especially if this current dip is related to market perception of Model 3 production hell. I don't think the stock has struggled of late due to fears of decreasing Model S/X sales. That fear, if it is one, is well below the fear of serious production issues with the 3. It appears that Model 3 deliveries will likely come in below guidance (1,500) but perhaps above consensus speculation (300-500). I have a hard time seeing the media spin that as a clear positive since it is below guidance. The media is not going to do Tesla any favors here, as usual. The wildcard is an indication that Tesla is getting to the other side of production hell and the numbers are about to climb rapidly. It seems to me, everyone on the sidelines would then be thinking they better get in soon. So, I think if there is some sort of positive clarity about the ramp, the stock will react favorably. Without that and with the numbers mentioned, I think investors may continue to wait on the sidelines for a bit longer. That's just my WAG. In my opinion, very risky for a short term bet right now.
Just to clarify, 1500 was **not** a delivery guidance, but an estimate of cars **produced** in Q3.
Mike Smith
Active Member
On last week's the Tesla Show Caleb said he saw a lineup of empty transport vehicles at Fremont that was so long it was blocking the highway.
Yeah, @bdy0627 the metric is decent production on m3 NOT deliveries. Deliveries are not the metric this time. The bar is way lower. So if they have ~1000 mostly finished that should be considered a victory and I think the market will see it as such. Also, we are alreDy trading at a technical bottom so the deck is stacked in our favor here.
Free alternative to CarFax: Check Any VIN - It's Free | Free VIN Check and Vehicle History
The site limits you to about a dozen searches a day (its probably easily spoofed with a VPN to mask IP)
I discovered the following valid vins:
5YJ3E1EA9HF001134
5YJ3E1EA0HF001135
5YJ3E1EABHF001136
5YJ3E1EADHF001137
5YJ3E1EAFHF001138
My current theory is that the Check Digit (underlined) climbs sequencially 1-9,0,B,D,E,F...every other letter, recycle the list.
Next valid VIN should be 5YJ3E1EAHHF001139
The site limits you to about a dozen searches a day (its probably easily spoofed with a VPN to mask IP)
I discovered the following valid vins:
5YJ3E1EA9HF001134
5YJ3E1EA0HF001135
5YJ3E1EABHF001136
5YJ3E1EADHF001137
5YJ3E1EAFHF001138
My current theory is that the Check Digit (underlined) climbs sequencially 1-9,0,B,D,E,F...every other letter, recycle the list.
Next valid VIN should be 5YJ3E1EAHHF001139
Last edited:
Mike Smith
Active Member
None of these numbers will matter. Q4 guidance is everything.
Cheery Q4 guidance won't be believed if Q3 numbers are too low.
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