2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[zdriver]

TSLA

Full GS report from this morning.

Appears someone may have caught wind of the Nomura upgrade a bit early. Finished rolling most of my J19's down to various J18 strikes upon seeing that. Have a few random weekly and monthly (Friday & Oct 20) calls too from around noon, but nothing overly big. Trading capital kinda got obliterated recently...


ninjaedit - graph above is market pressure, in this case, buying pressure may be an easier way to think of it.

 

[elasalle]

Up 6.61% and and 0.96% AH. The pattern is just so obvious!

this ain't the 6.61% and and 0.96 ($666 )i was referring to ... so still waiting ...

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Looks like somebody got this really short-term upside prediction right. At this point, with the Tesla Semi and Q3 ER coming up, I am incredibly bullish for both short and long-term trends. 5 ma crossing 10 ma soon. Enjoy the ride up to 380-400 by end of month.

Just in case... I got VIX calls as a hedge.

Nice handle... say... were you at the shareholders meeting a couple years ago?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Anybody know how to short BMW? I feel kinda bad for anyone buying a 3 series right now unless it's the plugin, like buying a typewriter instead of a laptop.

Shorting provides max potential return of 100%.

Capital better deployed long the industry disruptor. You're taking on the same risk anyway: the success of the disruptor.

 

[Krugerrand]

what am i... a f***** soothsayer?... or is this stock a sham?... time to bring this down to basic logic.

No.
No.
Been waiting since your arrival for some logic from you. Not holding my breath for it any longer than I did when you proclaimed next stop $270.

 

[racer26]

Shorting provides max potential return of 100%. Capital better deployed long the industry disruptor. You're taking the same risk anyway: success of the disruptor.

Valid point, I suppose.

 

[zdriver]

 

[elasalle]

Shorting provides max potential return of 100%. Capital better deployed long the industry disruptor. You're taking the same risk anyway: success of the disruptor.

?? Not if you use margin right .....

 

[Krugerrand]

Please invite me to the party when it happens

Why you asking him? It was my idea.

 

[FutureTSLACEO]

Nice handle... say... were you at the shareholders meeting a couple years ago?

Thanks! Wife thought about it for me since I'm all about Tesla and Elon these days. No, I watched the meetings remotely.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

?? Not if you use margin right .....

Shorting with margin is basically asking for it. And technically speaking, all shorting is done with margin because you're "borrowing" the shares.

Look at what BlackBerry stock did after iPhone came out and before it went down by 90%. It doubled!

Traditional automaker stocks are trading at deep value multiples, which you do not want to short!

Sure some people will make money shorting or buying puts against some traditional automakers, but I like TSLA risk/return profile much better.

 

[elasalle]

Shorting with margin is basically asking for it. And technically speaking, all shorting is done with margin because you're "borrowing" the shares.

Look at what BlackBerry stock did after iPhone came out and before it went down by 90%. It doubled!

Traditional automaker stocks are trading at deep value multiples, which you do not want to short!

Sure some people will make money shorting or buying puts against some traditional automakers, but I like TSLA risk/return profile much better.

Your previous statement was not about any particular stock ...

 

[ValueAnalyst]

View attachment 251560

This is significant. Note, however, that Nomura's forecast is very conservative, but even then: $500 target price!

Finally a sell-side analyst who's DCF model actually works!

Your previous statement was not about any particular stock ...

My point applies both in general and in shorting Tesla's competitors.

The one chance traditional automakers have is if they can get to autonomous fleet with ICE before Tesla can grow to meaningful market share.

That can buy them profitable time. This is why it's so important for Tesla to accelerate subsequent Gigafactories and achieve Level 4/5 ASAP.

 

[NicoV]

View attachment 251560

Nice summary, but this still implies only one extra gigafactory and one extra Fremont size plant by 2025. WIth talks about multiple gigafactories, there is still a lot of upside to this prediction.

 

[tander]

Shorting provides max potential return of 100%. Capital better deployed long the industry disruptor. You're taking the same risk anyway: success of the disruptor.

Not if using options. I don't know much about Euro options but BMW puts might be cheaper than Tesla calls.

 

[tander]

Shorting with margin is basically asking for it. And technically speaking, all shorting is done with margin because you're "borrowing" the shares.

Look at what BlackBerry stock did after iPhone came out and before it went down by 90%. It doubled!

Traditional automaker stocks are trading at deep value multiples, which you do not want to short!

Sure some people will make money shorting or buying puts against some traditional automakers, but I like TSLA risk/return profile much better.

A significant chunk of BMW is the 3 series, 100k-ish a year are sold in the U.S. Tesla has 400k reservations, and is going to be making something like 5k a week. So the m3 will beat all of BMW 3 series US yearly sales in 5-6 months (that's if you very generously assume sales in 2018 will be the same as 2016). Probably not all m3 buyers would also be 3 series buyers, but plenty of them are, and 40k cars get a lot more attention than phones, it will be obvious pretty much as soon as the m3 is cranking. BMW might double in a few years, but it's probably going to be a rough road since they are just now starting to get serious about going electric, and I'm not sure where they are with autonomy.

3 series sales dropped about 25% last year in the US, that was partly just because of the m3 announcement.
BMW 3 Series - Wikipedia

The Blackberry comparison is an interesting parallel though, because like BMW, they had a very strong following in Canada, it was basically the highest profile Canadian company, just like BMW or VW is to Germany. Most of 3 series sales are outside the US, and it's fair to expect Germans to keep buying a lot of German cars, but the model 3 is pretty much to the 3 series as the iPhone was to Blackberries, at least BMW/VW are steering in the right direction.

 

[everman]

what am i... a f***** soothsayer?... or is this stock a sham?... time to bring this down to basic logic.

I love reading this thread from market open to close in its entirety after the market closes... sometimes it’s just GOLD!

 

[kenliles]

Nomura:

NO...

Everything else:
YES

 

[ValueAnalyst]

A significant chunk of BMW is the 3 series, 100k-ish a year are sold in the U.S. Tesla has 400k reservations, and is going to be making something like 5k a week. So the m3 will beat all of BMW 3 series US yearly sales in 5-6 months (that's if you very generously assume sales in 2018 will be the same as 2016). Probably not all m3 buyers would also be 3 series buyers, but plenty of them are, and 40k cars get a lot more attention than phones, it will be obvious pretty much as soon as the m3 is cranking. BMW might double in a few years, but it's probably going to be a rough road since they are just now starting to get serious about going electric, and I'm not sure where they are with autonomy.

3 series sales dropped about 25% last year in the US, that was partly just because of the m3 announcement.
BMW 3 Series - Wikipedia

The Blackberry comparison is an interesting parallel though, because like BMW, they had a very strong following in Canada, it was basically the highest profile Canadian company, just like BMW or VW is to Germany. Most of 3 series sales are outside the US, and it's fair to expect Germans to keep buying a lot of German cars, but the model 3 is pretty much to the 3 series as the iPhone was to Blackberries, at least BMW/VW are steering in the right direction.

I agree with you fundamentally that BMW is toast, probably.

This, however, is not enough for me to short it, especially if it means moving capital away from TSLA.

 

[tander]

I agree with you fundamentally that BMW is toast, probably.

This, however, is not enough for me to short it, especially if it means moving capital away from TSLA.

I don't know if it's toast, but it seems like it's probably going to take some heat over the next year or so

Back to "market action", up 1% after hours, not bad, wonder if it will continue tomorrow?