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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Interesting, finally someone who does understand that this company is very much different to an pure Automaker and should be evaluated in a different way. Also of interest ist that even with conservative output estimates they conclude with a high SP target of $500.

Still some value areas are missing and should be taken into account that can and likely will drive substantial revenue e.g. Data, Supercharger, Energie, Shared Vehicles a.o.
 
Interesting, finally someone who does understand that this company is very much different to an pure Automaker and should be evaluated in a different way. Also of interest ist that even with conservative output estimates they conclude with a high SP target of $500.

Still some value areas are missing and should be taken into account that can and likely will drive substantial revenue e.g. Data, Supercharger, Energie, Shared Vehicles a.o.
I aways thought being an analyst is a slightly icky job/career path. But at least some of these analysts get it.
I wonder how the likes of Tamberinno will feel a few years from now, ethically and morally, after berating a pioneering American company which has noble goals.
 
The mood on Reddit is that TSLA will fall tomorrow.

Based on the stock market’s tendency to behave unpredictably and inflict pain on all sides, I’m going to guess that TSLA goes up and that people will be tearing their hair out as to why.

The most useful post from last night.

(much to @myusername 's dismay)

They (myusername) predicted TSLA would fall to $316-$317 based on their chart yesterday: 2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

TSLA now trading at $351 after hours. If this was Wallstreetbets - "It's like 4chan found a bloomberg terminal" • r/wallstreetbets I’d start bragging about buying a yacht... and making other comments that would 100% guaranteed get me banned here :D (In all seriousness though, I will *never* afford a Yacht on TSLA holdings, and a big boat is a waste of money IMO anyways).
 
Any thoughts on WHEN tesla will clear the Model 3 assembly line "bottlenecks"?

My view is ~3 weeks.

To put it another way, Tesla MUST inducate on Q3 Earnings Call in Early November that the bottlenecks have been resolved and ramp is underway
(Otherwise, WallStreet will have issues)
"It is important to emphasize that there are no fundamental issues with the Model 3 production or supply chain. We understand what needs to be fixed and we are confident of addressing the manufacturing bottleneck issues in the near-term" I don't know what the bottlenecks actually are or what they mean exactly by near-term. My guess is the near term is less than a month too, it should be evident with Oct sales numbers but who knows maybe not if they are waiting on one last thing. I crunched some numbers and it seems like they have ample time to get to 5,000 a week. They only have to make 32 next week if you use a straight line method. The multiplier is 1.59. It won't be a straight line of course, it should grow faster with each problem corrected.
20
32
51
80
128
203
323
514
817
1,299
2,065
3,284
5,222
 
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Hoping you all will celebrate a small victory for me today! Got it really close to the daily low! Now hoping that stays a low from here on out!
 
I don't know what the bottlenecks actually are

If I had to guess it would be quality standards are not satisfied yet when increasing the production speed. So you have to stop, assess, fix, try again. Rinse and repeat until quality standards are met at new production speed. This process is repeated every time you want to crank up the speed. And since you never really know how it's going to go until you try, it's difficult to predict. This is why Elon (my interpretation) was so hesitant to give an official guidance.
 
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I don't know if it's toast, but it seems like it's probably going to take some heat over the next year or so:)

Back to "market action", up 1% after hours, not bad, wonder if it will continue tomorrow?

I think days like this, especially with the Nomura price target, I don't see how it can't. But never say never!

I'm playing the long game with a moderate amount of margin, large amount of goodwill with clients (i.e. staying power), and some LEAPs.
 
If I had to guess it would be quality standards are not satisfied yet when increasing the production speed. So you have to stop, assess, fix, try again. Rinse and repeat until quality standards are met at new production speed. This process is repeated every time you want to crank up the speed. And since you never really know how it's going to go until you try, it's difficult to predict. This is why Elon (my interpretation) was so hesitant to give an official guidance.
That's a good point, I was thinking about part issues, but "bottlenecks" is more in line with things like tweaking machines and quality issues. I hope National Geographic or someone is doing a whole show on this ramp, it'd be kind of interesting to see exactly what they mean by bottlenecks and so forth. But that's how manufacturing of anything goesI guess, you just keep fixing problems until you're cranking out what you need to be. It probably helps when you've got like 10,000 people or however many are directly involved solving problems. No tweet's of Musk's sleeping bag so things must be going pretty well.
 
zero margin calls despite my being on margin close to $7
my margin equity did fall to 44% but no worries
how much stock are you holding?
don't have to state if you don't want to
it's all good
I am tempted to buy even more but too scared to do so
Sorry, if you didn't have any margin calls on this drop then you certainly weren't pushing the limits. That's a good thing, but very different from what you've been posting.

Also, I don't know what kind of translation code you are using to describe holdings so I can't describe mine in your language. In any case, I'm not sure that publicly describing the size of one's portfolio serves any purpose. I can say that it's over triple what it was at the start of this year. And I could buy a fleet of Teslas with my winnings. TSLA has been good to me.
 
That's a good point, I was thinking about part issues, but "bottlenecks" is more in line with things like tweaking machines and quality issues. I hope National Geographic or someone is doing a whole show on this ramp, it'd be kind of interesting to see exactly what they mean by bottlenecks and so forth. But that's how manufacturing of anything goesI guess, you just keep fixing problems until you're cranking out what you need to be. It probably helps when you've got like 10,000 people or however many are directly involved solving problems. No tweet's of Musk's sleeping bag so things must be going pretty well.

At this point he is building the machine that builds machines...I don not think they are concerned with building cars at this point. They are concerned with building the best production line they can, They still need to ramp up production of production lines and gigafactories.

We need a new thread tracking the progress of all the M3 and Y production lines....
 
At this point he is building the machine that builds machines...I don not think they are concerned with building cars at this point. They are concerned with building the best production line they can, They still need to ramp up production of production lines and gigafactories.

We need a new thread tracking the progress of all the M3 and Y production lines....
and GGF#3/4/5/6
 
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