2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Papafox]

Tuesday you mean? Not really. Shows up to me as tons of selling. Over the rest of the day, algos were big buyers, dark pools net sellers. Not much insight from accumulators that day. Price was a better tell. (gapping down, but closing green with an engulfing candle)

Thanks for input. Yes, I meant Tuesday. I based my volume statement on at least one moment when over 100,000 shares were traded in a single minute. We had at least one spike that high and lots of other particularly large one-minute trading spikes. My working thesis has been that some big buyer(s) (institutions?) kept the Tuesday morning open dip from going as deep as shorts had hoped by loading up and this participation changed the outcome of the day. I imagine that algos were indeed big buyers as the day progressed, but I was really focused on the first hour or two of trading. It may be impossible to reliably quantify who the buyers were during the high-volume early trading on Tuesday.

 

[erthquake]

Semi unveil moved back three weeks to fix Model 3 bottlenecks and help Puerto Rico with more batteries.

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[austinEV]

Semi unveil moved back three weeks for fix Model 3 bottlenecks and help Puerto Rico with more batteries.

Elon Musk on Twitter

Crap. Glad I didn't buy plane tickets. First reaction is there will be less Oct enthusiasm for the event. On the other hand, more Oct enthusiasm for getting stuff fixed quickly.

 

[Mkorpal]

Semi unveil moved back three weeks to fix Model 3 bottlenecks and help Puerto Rico with more batteries.

Elon Musk on Twitter

A little weird. I can' imagine some PR people are really all that necessary for fixing problems on a production line.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

View attachment 252298

Elon Musk on Twitter

This shouldn't affect SP much, if at all, but it may create a good opportunity for 2020 LEAPs.

A little weird. I can' imagine some PR people are really all that necessary for fixing problems on a production line.

It may be manager/executive level priority/attention shift.

 

[EinSV]

Semi unveil moved back three weeks to fix Model 3 bottlenecks and help Puerto Rico with more batteries.

Elon Musk on Twitter

Seems like the right call. Semi will probably make an even bigger splash if Model 3 is ramping nicely by then and opportunity to help PR out of a crisis is a potential game changer for both the people of PR and TE.

 

[T3slaTulips]

So the talk with Puerto Rico's Governor must have gone well then.

 

[FutureTSLACEO]

Crap. Glad I didn't buy plane tickets. First reaction is there will be less Oct enthusiasm for the event. On the other hand, more Oct enthusiasm for getting stuff fixed quickly.

Same here with the initial reaction, but this is a rare opportunity to buy on any dip. Seems like the talk with PR governor went well and Elon and team are going to ramp up battery storage installation. Looking great for Q4 ER here. He also mentioned "other affected areas"... Tesla Semi can wait, b/c we know it's going to be a blast. Q3 ER still in line for a breakout.

Seriously, it would baffle me if people are selling shares now given that Elon is postponing Tesla Sem unveil in exchange of ramping up both Model 3 and battery storage production faster. I think the tweet is excellent.

Nonetheless, the altruism he displayed is outright respectable.

 

[FredTMC]

Another WSJ hit piece out

In the article there's this:


"In a statement, a Tesla spokeswoman declined to answer questions for this article and said, "For over a decade, the WSJ has relentlessly attacked Tesla with misleading articles that, with few exceptions, push or exceed the boundaries of journalistic integrity. While it is possible that this article could be an exception, that is extremely unlikely." The Journal disagrees with the company's categorization of its journalism."


Ha. Good for you tesla.

 

[Intl Professor]

snip
Nonetheless, the altruism he displayed is outright respectable.

When you are a good person the temptation to do good when it is needed is irresistible. Rather unusual for a Titan of industry, although even Carnegie came around.

 

[Mkorpal]

Wow, Elon is in a tweety mood today.

 

[2virgule5]

Wow, Elon is in a tweety mood today.

Yes, I invite everyone to look at his answers following the tweet about delaying Semi unveil, like opening design studio to regular consumers in 6 to 8 weeks (that's much more than hoped here), being deep into production hell, and Semi specs exceeding what was reported so far (that is good ;-)

 

[Mkorpal]

Yes, I invite everyone to look at his answers following the tweet about delaying Semi unveil, like opening design studio to regular consumers in 6 to 8 weeks (that's much more than hoped here), being deep into production hell, and Semi specs exceeding what was reported so far (that is good ;-)

He also dropped a hint that the "spy shot of the semi" may not have been the semi.

 

[Curt Renz]

Seems like the right call. Semi will probably make an even bigger splash if Model 3 is ramping nicely by then and opportunity to help PR out of a crisis is a potential game changer for both the people of PR and TE.

Indeed. Over the weekend while the financial news media is relaxing, the general news media will likely cover Elon and the Puerto Rican governor working together to bring Powerpacks to the island, while the Model 3 bottleneck and semi-truck unveil delay are ignored. They're always looking for good stories to fill time on otherwise slow weekends.

That could boost TSLA stock on Monday morning, and make some of today's after-hours traders appear foolish in their haste to sell. They're probably the same type, that in response to the production numbers, sold during after-hours Monday and into Tuesday morning prior to the run-up for the rest of Tuesday and the week.

The semi-truck will still be coming, even if the unveil is slightly delayed for a reason unrelated to that project. Of greatest importance is relieving the Model 3 bottleneck. I spoke with a local Tesla employee yesterday who still expects 5000 Model 3's to be produced per week by December.

 

[Lessmog]

Another WSJ hit piece out

In the article there's this:


"In a statement, a Tesla spokeswoman declined to answer questions for this article and said, "For over a decade, the WSJ has relentlessly attacked Tesla with misleading articles that, with few exceptions, push or exceed the boundaries of journalistic integrity. While it is possible that this article could be an exception, that is extremely unlikely." The Journal disagrees with the company's categorization of its journalism."


Ha. Good for you tesla.

So, it must be the old hit piece from Andrea's time? Recognise her wording, I think. Digging deep for any dirt, WSJ!

 

[MitchJi]

Tesla Semi unveil now Nov 16. Diverting resources to fix Model 3 bottlenecks & increase battery production for Puerto Rico & other affected areas.


When do you expect the design studio for the 3 to go live for initial non-employee reservation holders?
I am continuously refreshing MyTesla...


Probably 6 to 8 weeks.

Fred Lambert:

That's a delay? Tesla is currently still guiding 'late October' first customer deliveries.

Bear in mind that the production ramp is an exponential curve. Late Oct is possible, but not certain. Literally every day makes a big difference.


I mean that '6 weeks' for design studio to non-employee customers leads people to believe actual deliveries won't happen until ~December.i

Elon:being a wise guy:

There is only one config being built right now, so the only question is "What color?". Don't need a configurator for that.

Fred again:

Fair enough .So I understand customers could confirm orders without config going public so it's not a good indicator of start of deliveries?

Assume the worst. Now I need to get back to work...

That tweet will definitely make some headlines .

I put his answer in bold above (I'm pretty sure that this isn't the first time you have heard about "exponential ramps")!

Wonder what he means by "assume the worst". Is that "get off my back, just use the latest time you are imagining" or "we are really ****ed up over here."

 

[elasalle]

Tesla Semi unveil now Nov 16. Diverting resources to fix Model 3 bottlenecks & increase battery production for Puerto Rico & other affected areas.


When do you expect the design studio for the 3 to go live for initial non-employee reservation holders?
I am continuously refreshing MyTesla...


Probably 6 to 8 weeks.

Fred Lambert:

That's a delay? Tesla is currently still guiding 'late October' first customer deliveries.

Bear in mind that the production ramp is an exponential curve. Late Oct is possible, but not certain. Literally every day makes a big difference.


I mean that '6 weeks' for design studio to non-employee customers leads people to believe actual deliveries won't happen until ~December.

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk 2m2 minutes ago
There is only one config being built right now, so the only question is "What color?". Don't need a configurator for that.

 

[austinEV]

Yes, I invite everyone to look at his answers following the tweet about delaying Semi unveil, like opening design studio to regular consumers in 6 to 8 weeks (that's much more than hoped here), being deep into production hell, and Semi specs exceeding what was reported so far (that is good ;-)

Also it sounds like the leaked semi photo wasn't legit, or wasn't their product.

 

[erthquake]

Also it sounds like the leaked semi photo wasn't legit, or wasn't their product.

It matches Tesla's teased photo too well to not be semi-legit, especially the headlights and lack of side mirrors. Could be an early prototype though.

 

[austinEV]

Wonder what he means by "assume the worst". Is that "get off my back, just use the latest time you are imagining" or "we are really ****ed up over here."