2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[jelloslug]

Good news. Thanks

But, 246 produced in 16 days. Are we suppose to watch for things that end in 6?

EDIT: Thanks @geneclean55 ...fixed weeks to days..my bad

Your post was number 22360. That's all we need right there...

 

[Turing]

So after months of being bearish on TSLA the great trader and legendary chartist Dan Zanger has turned bullish on TSLA and believes that TSLA is forming a small base ready to launch up on ER with a TBA $360
Dan Zanger for those who don't know is the absolute top technical trader in the world and one of the all time greatest traders on the entire history of stock market trading. I don't have enough words to praise his expertise
This is a highly thrilling news to me!
Shorts r in deep deep trouble!!!

Is there a link for this or is it a newsletter?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Your post was number 22360. That's all we need right there...

And second sentence in your post is 6 words long...

 

[sunhelm]

Can you clarify what "TBA $360" means?

Technical buy area: Dan Zanger on Twitter

 

[ValueAnalyst]

These two data points, do not confirm, but support my view that Model 3 production ramp is about two to three weeks behind "tweet schedule," and they are also in-line with Elon's prediction that "December will be a big month."

If my hypothesis is correct, I would expect additional VINs to emerge by Friday, further acceleration (i.e. dozens) in the last week of October, VIN 1134 to be delivered by mid-November, Tesla to be producing 1,000 Model 3's per week by end-November, and 13,000+ deliveries in December, for a total of 15,000 deliveries in 4Q17.

This hypothesis is the primary reason why I expect TSLA to start rising by the end of October and into year-end.

Step 1 ‎✔ Tesla is delivering more Model 3 vehicles as customer delivery deadline approaches

Tesla is still guiding for its first Model 3 deliveries to regular customers to happen by the end of the month despite all the recent talks of delays in the production ramp.

We have recently received reports of several new Model 3 deliveries across the US as Tesla expands the range outside of California and near Fremont factory.

It’s still singificantly below the 1334 Model 3 VINs registered with NHTSA last month.

@FredLambert - SP "significantly"

-----

I'll be watching @vgrinshpun's posts on max registered VIN like a hawk (see below). Hopefully by the end of this week, we should see a jump. Could there be a delay between Tesla registering more VIN's and this being reflected on the website?

There is one indication that pretty much kills this possibility. There is only 1100 VINs registered with NHTSA. If production would have been behind by only by 2 to 3 weeks, Tesla would have produced much more that 1100 cars by now. Since we now know that a M3 VIN is registered with NHTSA some time before the car enters production, Tesla is definitely more than 2-3 weeks behind.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Step 1 - check.

Tesla is delivering more Model 3 vehicles as customer delivery deadline approaches

Tesla is still guiding for its first Model 3 deliveries to regular customers to happen by the end of the month despite all the recent talks of delays in the production ramp.

We have recently received reports of several new Model 3 deliveries across the US as Tesla expands the range outside of California and near Fremont factory.

It’s still singificantly below the 1334 Model 3 VINs registered with NHTSA last month.

@FredLambert - SP "significantly"

-----

I'll be watching @vgrinshpun's posts on max registered VIN like a hawk (see below). Hopefully by the end of this week, we should see a jump. Could there be a delay between Tesla registering more VIN's and this being reflected on the website?

To be precise, only 1100 VINs were registered with NHTSA as of midnight EST yesterday. The highest VIN registered was 1134. Fred Lambert should know the difference.

 

[D-egg-O]

This is the sixth indication that Model 3 production ramp is behind by only two to three weeks.

I note that the 3,005 unit prediction by Oppy (see below), after a recent management meeting, is an indication of a longer delay.

It's still too nebulous to word it as such. We don't know what Tesla's initial delivery target was to Mr. Mouse. For all we know, it their initial delivery target could have been beginning of September. I think the bolded statement should be, by at least two to three weeks.

 

[elasalle]

It's still too nebulous to word it as such. We don't know what Tesla's initial delivery target was to Mr. Mouse. For all we know, it their initial delivery target could have been beginning of September. I think the bolded statement should be, by at least two to three weeks.

One delivery to Mr Twig Mouse based on expected delivery rate is frankly "Mouse Nuts"

 

[geneclean55]

A test of the 50 day sma would be nice today.

 

[erthquake]

xkcd: Color Pattern



Looking for some Lloyd (Green Ninja) action in the market tomorrow.

That's, La-Loyd.

And who does that make Lord Garmadon? MarkBS?

 

[DaveT]

So after months of being bearish on TSLA the great trader and legendary chartist Dan Zanger has turned bullish on TSLA and believes that TSLA is forming a small base ready to launch up on ER with a TBA $360
Dan Zanger for those who don't know is the absolute top technical trader in the world and one of the all time greatest traders on the entire history of stock market trading. I don't have enough words to praise his expertise
This is a highly thrilling news to me!
Shorts r in deep deep trouble!!!

Does Dan Zanger share his price target of what he thinks happens after TSLA breaks out of base?

 

[geneclean55]

A test of the 50 day sma would be nice today.

Someone was listening

 

[ValueAnalyst]

To be precise, only 1100 VINs were registered with NHTSA as of midnight EST yesterday. The highest VIN registered was 1134. Fred Lambert should know the difference.

Yep. I think we all agree that @FredLambert does an incredible job, but yes there are small mistakes here and there sometimes, which is normal given the amount of information with which he keeps up. I think we can help him by pointing the key ones out to him here, and he does a nice job of fixing them very quickly.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

It's still too nebulous to word it as such. We don't know what Tesla's initial delivery target was to Mr. Mouse. For all we know, it their initial delivery target could have been beginning of September. I think the bolded statement should be, by at least two to three weeks.

I'd like to put a reasonable min-max on it; an 80% confidence interval type of thing. I'll change it to three to six weeks for my next article.

Model X was more of a 3 to 6 month delay after production start, so I don't see how this is comparable to Model X either.

 

[zdriver]

Tesla employees detail how they were fired, claim dismissals were not performance-related -- Several current and former employees told CNBC that Tesla's recent round of firings was not targeted at low-performing employees, but appeared to be a cost-cutting measure. --CNBC


Tesla employees detail how they were fired, claim dismissals were not performance-related

Convenient timing of this article release. Algos successfully sunk price over a buck, straight from HOD.

 

[DaveT]

I'd like to put a reasonable min-max on it; an 80% confidence interval type of thing. I'll change it to three to six weeks for my next article.

Model X was more of a 3 to 6 month delay after production start, so I don't see how this is comparable to Model X either.

At this point nobody knows when Tesla will be able to fix their bottlenecks and be able to ramp production into 1000s/week. Everybody is just guessing.

But I would say that the chances that Tesla starts customer deliveries by the end of this month is slim to none.

 

[Hogfighter]

Tesla employees detail how they were fired, claim dismissals were not performance-related -- Several current and former employees told CNBC that Tesla's recent round of firings was not targeted at low-performing employees, but appeared to be a cost-cutting measure. --CNBC


Tesla employees detail how they were fired, claim dismissals were not performance-related

Convenient timing of this article release. Algos successfully sunk price over a buck, straight from HOD.

I've never fired a poor-performing employee who admitted as much. Like ever.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

At this point nobody knows when Tesla will be able to fix their bottlenecks and be able to ramp production into 1000s/week. Everybody is just guessing.

But I would say that the chances that Tesla starts customer deliveries by the end of this month is slim to none.

I'd agree with that. I'm curious to see when and if Tesla will change its delivery estimates and by how long.

 

[Snapdragon III]

Tesla employees detail how they were fired, claim dismissals were not performance-related -- Several current and former employees told CNBC that Tesla's recent round of firings was not targeted at low-performing employees, but appeared to be a cost-cutting measure. --CNBC


Tesla employees detail how they were fired, claim dismissals were not performance-related

Convenient timing of this article release. Algos successfully sunk price over a buck, straight from HOD.

Based on my personal experience in every work place I have ever been involved in, I find it shocking that the lowest performing employees self reported that "I am the best"! I have never encountered anything like that.

Edit- Hogfighter beat me to it.

 

[hobbes]

Tesla employees detail how they were fired, claim dismissals were not performance-related -- Several current and former employees told CNBC that Tesla's recent round of firings was not targeted at low-performing employees, but appeared to be a cost-cutting measure. --CNBC


Tesla employees detail how they were fired, claim dismissals were not performance-related

Convenient timing of this article release. Algos successfully sunk price over a buck, straight from HOD.

Doesn´t make sense to me. Even if the main motivation is to save money, you´d still fire the low performance employees, no?
Also with lots of other jobs reportedly listed as open...