2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[SunCatcher]

For a company that says it makes 50 changes a week to their current production cars, what are the chances that they aren’t going to be making a lot of last-minutes changes with the M3, and that those changes are also one of the reasons for the delay.

Let's also remember that Elon once said that if they waited to go into production until all improvements and changes were made, they'd never make any cars. At some point they'll need to get on with it, produce an awesome car; knowing that improvements will never stop, and that their products will never cease to evolve towards perfection. And as that perfection is reached, all it will take is another day for something newer and better to replace it.

 

[Off Shore]

First outside-of-Tesla/SpaceX-employee configurations should start soon. The only options to choose are wheels, color, and Autopilot/FSD. No need for a configurator, just locking in orders.

I keep seeing this sentiment, but really: Tesla/SpaceX have ~39,000 employees, and any of them who've ordered the configurations currently available will get them before the general public. Do we really believe T/S employees have only ordered ~1000 of these cars?

 

[madodel]

My BS Technical tea leaves show “short term” we will close out the day strong

Strong in which direction?

 

[Chickenlittle]

I keep seeing this sentiment, but really: Tesla/SpaceX have ~39,000 employees, and any of them who've ordered the configurations currently available will get them before the general public. Do we really believe T/S employees have only ordered ~1000 of these cars?

Yes I do. Remember the D not available yet as is the smaller battery option. I suspect 1000 taking the current configuration about right

 

[schonelucht]

I am pretty sure this does not apply to Model 3 when it is in the initial ramp up phase.

Why not? In fact, the recent blog post by their former VP explicitly calls out the benefit of insourcing as a means to get rapid turnover during the launch of a new product

Launching a new product presents a team with thousands of small decisions. If you choose to outsource a component, you often need to send people to live in the factory for a prolonged period of time. This means accepting that it’s going to be harder to make choices and to influence outcomes.

..

Start by building the product with your own small manufacturing operation, ideally in the same building as your engineers, designers, and product teams. Use this pilot line to learn quickly, iterate, and develop an understanding of what it takes to build your product.

To me this sounds like rapid evolution is important right from the very first car you manufacture.

 

[Snapdragon III]

First outside-of-Tesla/SpaceX-employee configurations should start soon. The only options to choose are wheels, color, and Autopilot/FSD. No need for a configurator, just locking in orders.

I know this comes from Elon on Twitter, but it seems weird to me. Is the implication that they can not finish the web programing to build the Configurator page? Why wouldn't they just release a configurator that let customers pick, color, wheels, self driving? It seems like it is just a web page, and they can put whatever information they want on it. I don't get it, but I suspect it boils down to customer deliveries in Oct are a total fantasy. The only other explanation, that I always hope for, but never happens, is that the whole discussion is part of an elaborate trap they are setting for short sellers.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I keep seeing this sentiment, but really: Tesla/SpaceX have ~39,000 employees, and any of them who've ordered the configurations currently available will get them before the general public. Do we really believe T/S employees have only ordered ~1000 of these cars?

This exact thing has been puzzling for me for a while as well.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I keep seeing this sentiment, but really: Tesla/SpaceX have ~39,000 employees, and any of them who've ordered the configurations currently available will get them before the general public. Do we really believe T/S employees have only ordered ~1000 of these cars?

Good point, and remember that employees can also order two Model 3's...

 

[Mkorpal]

I keep seeing this sentiment, but really: Tesla/SpaceX have ~39,000 employees, and any of them who've ordered the configurations currently available will get them before the general public. Do we really believe T/S employees have only ordered ~1000 of these cars?

Let's do some math. Why don't we assume that 75% of the employees are even interested in the car. That would make it 29,250. Now let's make an assumption that half of those interested are currently willing and able to buy the car. Now we are at 14,625. And now consider that maybe half of those who are interested, and willing and able to purchase, are interested in the long range, single motor configuration. That would be 7,312.

And I'm likely being quite generous on the number who are willing and able to buy right now. Not everyone at Tesla makes 6 figures, you know.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Why not? In fact, the recent blog post by their former VP explicitly calls out the benefit of insourcing as a means to get rapid turnover during the launch of a new product

To me this sounds like rapid evolution is important right from the very first car you manufacture.

To me he was talking about pilot production of components. I believe that at this time M3 design is locked out and there is moratorium on any changes until they reach steady state production post the ramp.

 

[schonelucht]

Right now it looks like 2136 is the highest. I've tried spot checking by 10s above that without any luck... might have missed a few numbers though.

Excellent. Unfortunately seems like the numbers are registered in lumps so won't be super detailed information in speed of ramp going forward.

 

[DurandalAI]

Neither is AAPL. Luckily my wife never asks how our investments are doing so I don't have to tell her about the $100k or so lost today. It's all just paper/electrons. Come on 310. I want another shot at buying some more with TT007. We need more poetry.

Lol. I only tell my wife when my investments are up.

 

[vgrinshpun]

No, it's just a play on the imbalance market. And yes, contracts are awarded in minutes at a time. For now, storage in itself is the least interesting proposition for grid scale battery storage (capacity is just too low to matter except in rare circumstances like islands). It's all about the ability to soak up and deliver power instantaneously. Wind is good in soaking up capacity (just turn the blades), but obviously not good at all at providing instant power. Batteries fix that part of the equation. Natural pairing right there.

This is mostly not true. I will have to take a rain check explaining why as it will take more time that I currently have...

 

[jhm]

Wouldn't it be nice if he was alluding to the number of Model 3's produced?

Elon Musk on Twitter

"Now at 6400 hats …"

Looks like Boring Co will be posting $256k revenue this year.

 

[Mkorpal]

Looks like Boring Co will be posting $256k revenue this year.

Way more profitable than Tesla
*ducks for cover

 

[sunhelm]

This is very positive. Very very positive.

What does 2136 spell upside down? I literally just walked around my table to look down on my screen, but couldn't figure it out.

I did look like an idiot though...

Geiz... it's like telling us geez, guys, go play outside, no worries here.

 

[Turing]

I keep seeing this sentiment, but really: Tesla/SpaceX have ~39,000 employees, and any of them who've ordered the configurations currently available will get them before the general public. Do we really believe T/S employees have only ordered ~1000 of these cars?

How many holding out for dual motors?

 

[Rarity]

Let's do some math. Why don't we assume that 75% of the employees are even interested in the car. That would make it 29,250. Now let's make an assumption that half of those interested are currently willing and able to buy the car. Now we are at 14,625. And now consider that maybe half of those who are interested, and willing and able to purchase, are interested in the long range, single motor configuration. That would be 7,312.

And I'm likely being quite generous on the number who are willing and able to buy right now. Not everyone at Tesla makes 6 figures, you know.

Don't forget those Tesla employees who are oversees.

 

[techmaven]

I keep seeing this sentiment, but really: Tesla/SpaceX have ~39,000 employees, and any of them who've ordered the configurations currently available will get them before the general public. Do we really believe T/S employees have only ordered ~1000 of these cars?

Remember that only the $49,000 version of the car is available. Plenty of those workers do not want that particular version, either because it is more expensive than they can afford, or they want a later version. Also, employees have first dibs on used Model S/X. So we're down to U.S. employees that have not bought a S/X new, or used that want and can afford the initial Model 3 version. I can believe that's around 1,000 or 2 or so.

 

[Mkorpal]

Don't forget those Tesla employees who are oversees.

I wasn't sure if Tesla would make some right hand cars for those and ship them, or if they would skip them during the employee phase.