2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[RobStark]

CR providing a bad review for a car they haven’t even driven

CR did not provide a bad review of a car they had not driven.

CR gave Tesla the benefit of the doubt because 2017 Model S improved over 2016 Model S to better than average reliability and predicted FIRST YEAR reliability for the all new Model 3 would be average.

I will be doing an Irish jig if Tesla produces over 200k 2018 Model 3s with average reliability as rated by CR surveys.

 

[Navin]

Bought a sizable position in shares

 

[myusername]

But, but, but, ... What happened to The Line ? You know, the $1/day rise manipulation theory ?
Shouldn't we be well over $400 by now ?
Got replaced by the "bounded by sixes horizontal trading" ?

Nah, this is much more boring, please draw us some nice lines instead !

i said at the turn of the quarter it was over and I was hunting for the next trend... and I just watched it bounce around on $346.

 

[koolkool]

Man, F*** this stock. Takes a month to climb to 360 and that's all undone in 2 days. Rolling forward my vertical credit spreads for a loss of $60,000 USD.

 

[notsosure]

No value to this post, but have to vent. That was an ugly week! FUDsters really won out. Seems like that $360 range really scared them and they pulled out all stops. Oh well. The reality is the near-term price of this stock will come down to what is said during the earnings call, how the semi is received, and getting past M3 “bottlenecks.”

 

[MitchJi]

Ask Trump, or anyone else, on both sides, driving divisive wedge-issue politics. The us-versus-them mentality creates separate ideological "bunkers" until something on the magnitude of WWII or 9/11 comes along to unite both sides.

Or (we can hope) climate change.

 

[MitchJi]

CR did not provide a bad review of a car they had not driven.

CR gave Tesla the benefit of the doubt because 2017 Model S improved over 2016 Model S to better than average reliability and predicted FIRST YEAR reliability for the all new Model 3 would be average.

I will be doing an Irish jig if Tesla produces over 200k 2018 Model 3s with average reliability as rated by CR surveys.

I hope that they will deliver over 350k M3's with at least average reliability.

The problem with CR's ratings is that they don't consider the context with EV's or Tesla. Early Model S motor replacements for example were weighted like a gas car motor replacement. That ignored the fact that Tesla was replacing motors due to attempting to trouble shoot a noise. These were not typical failures and Tesla was doing that to get customers on the road as quickly as possible.

The noise was obviously not a positive, but the strategy of replacing the motors should have been regarded as a positive and the motor replacement should not have weighted like ice motor failures. With an ICE the level of noise that was a problem with an EV would probably have been inaudible!

And how can they remove the MS from their list of recommended models due to reliablility issues when Tesla had the highest percentage of owners that loved their cars? That's probably at least partially due to the fact that Tesla doesn't attempt to make money from maintenance which their model doesn't capture either. Would you rather have better reliability with a dealer network that is trying to rape you on maintenance?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Tesla - Current Report

Warehouse limit increased

Item 1.01. Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement.

On October 18, 2017, certain subsidiaries of Tesla, Inc. (“ Tesla ”) that are respectively parties to (i) an Amended and Restated Loan and Security Agreement (the “ A&R 2016 Warehouse Agreement ”) and (ii) a Loan and Security Agreement (the “ 2017 Warehouse Agreement ,” and together with the A&R 2016 Warehouse Agreement, the “ Warehouse Agreements ”), each dated August 17, 2017 with Deutsche Bank AG, New York Branch as administrative agent and the other parties named therein, entered into an amendment to each of the Warehouse Agreements (together, the “ Amendments ”).

The Amendments increased the shared aggregate lender commitments across the Warehouse Agreements from $600 million to $1.1 billion and added additional lenders, among other things. As a result, the commitments under the A&R 2016 Warehouse Agreement and the 2017 Warehouse Agreement were $511,125,806 and $588,874,194, respectively, as of October 18, 2017. The Warehouse Agreements provide that the lender commitment under the A&R 2016 Warehouse Agreement may from time to time be reduced and reallocated to the 2017 Warehouse Agreement in a corresponding amount.

 

[Wenche]

Man, F*** this stock. Takes a month to climb to 360 and that's all undone in 2 days. Rolling forward my vertical credit spreads for a loss of $60,000 USD.

Short term is risky. What was your bet? I feel more confortable with longer options, and Deep ITM.

 

[koolkool]

360 / 350 PUTS DEC 2017 rolled forward to March.

Funny thing is that this was, by my standards, long term. I opened this position 8 months ago thinking it was a pretty sure thing.

I could've rolled forward for profit on Wednesday but I told myself to wait until Friday. On Wednesday, I would've got a 10k credit for rolling. Two days later, it's at a 60k loss. Arrrgghhhh.

Then, every single time the SP got close to $380 over this year, it just continuously got dragged back down over and over. So frustrating.

 

[Wenche]

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/consu...stands-positive-model-3-rating-20171020-00845

Consumer Reports new reply to Tesla on Tesla Model 3, report; This is a positive report.

 

[Lessmog]

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/consu...stands-positive-model-3-rating-20171020-00845

Consumer Reports on Tesla Model 3; This is a positive report.

And Brutus was an honorable man. (No comparison however)

EDIT: So is Mugabe now, apparently. WHO?

 

[Mkorpal]

What's the point of registering VIN's incrementally? Why doesn't Tesla just register 100,000+ VIN's?

Well, it's the government, so I'm just going to assume there is a fee to register vehicles with them.

 

[RobStark]

I hope that they will deliver over 350k M3's with at least average reliability.

The problem with CR's ratings is that they don't consider the context with EV's or Tesla. Early Model S motor replacements for example were weighted like a gas car motor replacement. That ignored the fact that Tesla was replacing motors due to attempting to trouble shoot a noise. These were not typical failures and Tesla was doing that to get customers on the road as quickly as possible.

The noise was obviously not a positive, but the strategy of replacing the motors should have been regarded as a positive and the motor replacement should not have weighted like ice motor failures. With an ICE the level of noise that was a problem with an EV would probably have been inaudible!

And how can they remove the MS from their list of recommended models due to reliablility issues when Tesla had the highest percentage of owners that loved their cars? That's probably at least partially due to the fact that Tesla doesn't attempt to make money from maintenance which their model doesn't capture either. Would you rather have better reliability with a dealer network that is trying to rape you on maintenance?

CR has reliability surveys AND satisfaction surveys which measure different things. CR reports high Tesla satisfaction numbers and that 92% of customers would buy again and/or recommend to family/friends.

CR doesn't give granular reliability reports on each make and each car. It tells us what it is. They have changed their rankings from problems per 100 cars to a weighted average. You could buy the magazine and see the difference between major and minor problems. And ratings in some sub categories. And that engine failure and infotainment screen freeze counted as one "problem" also was a deficiency in the CR rankings. But now they have moved to weighted rankings.

 

[SBenson]

Once we get Model 3 deliveries get into the 2XXXs it's a good sign that bottlenecks are resolved. Until then, "expect the worst".

This makes a lot of sense. It’s almost pointless predicting any kind of delivery numbers for the month or quarter or whatever until we get to the 2K mark.

The good news is that the market doesn’t seem to be in a hurry. Very much looks like range bound until we have clarity.

 

[elasalle]

This makes a lot of sense. It’s almost pointless predicting any kind of delivery numbers for the month or quarter or whatever until we get to the 2K mark.

The good news is that the market doesn’t seem to be in a hurry. Very much looks like range bound until we have clarity.

IMHO .. Requesting for 2 batch of VINs, most likely means first batch of VINS almost completed. So I think by earnings we can get update that like 1000-1100 M3 were produced. End of Month, we should/could see a slight pick up in VINs and sightings.

 

[larmor]

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/consu...stands-positive-model-3-rating-20171020-00845

Consumer Reports new reply to Tesla on Tesla Model 3, report; This is a positive report.

Just my opinion, but CR report on reliability for a car that has not been provided for review or any short or long term reliability data is only put out for pure clickbait. Clicks drive the advertising market and anything linked to M3 is hot, esp for car shoppers who cross shop reliability surveys.

 

[D-egg-O]

Still hoping for a large employee delivery event. Fingers crossed.

 

[Mkorpal]

IMHO .. Requesting for 2 batch of VINs, most likely means first batch of VINS almost completed. So I think by earnings we can get update that like 1000-1100 M3 were produced. End of Month, we should/could see a slight pick up in VINs and sightings.

Really though, I don't think it really means much. Considering it's the government, it's entirely possible those VINs were submitted months ago. Who knows.

 

[DaveT]

Still hoping for a large employee delivery event. Fingers crossed.

Less than 1% chance that is happening. Not worth hoping for.