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Could you please elaborate?
Could you please elaborate?
If you look back at parts orders for the beginning of the Model 3 ramp you can see that Tesla will place orders to do its best to try to ensure that parts supplies will not be a roadblock in production. But inevitably some suppliers will fall short in terms of volume or quality and the ramp can only progress as fast as the worst performing supplier. (Elon has explained this in the past but I don’t have time to look it up.) And that assumes no problems ramping the production line.
So I would view 10K/wk by mid-2018 as much more optimistic than even the “impossible” July 2017 date for the start of Model 3 production.
More broadly, getting out ahead of Tesla’s own (usually optimistic) projections on this is very likely to prove wrong. Tesla has said 10K/week production some time in 2018. Until I hear otherwise I am assuming December 2018, and in my mind that would be a massive home run.
I have 10,000 per week in dec as well. Just wanted to make sure last night's supplier comments didn't change that.
Went back to read the Taiwan supplier article carefully and found a handful of info not talked much here:
1. Seat issue: Model 3的座椅沒有設計可放置文件的背袋,也沒有扶手,甚至連座椅也太短,對身材較高大的男性而言,並不舒服,更無法滿足企業老闆或貴賓的需求 "Model 3 seat has not pocket for holding documents, no handrails, and even the seat is too short, taller men, Boss or VIP needs."
2. "至於供應鏈部分,沈國榮說,目前問題出在部分供應鏈廠商的產品良率,無法達到特斯拉要求,雙方還在磨合中,以致於產量開不出來。"As for the supply chain part, Shen Guorong said that the current problem in some of the supply chain manufacturers product yield rate, can not meet the requirements of Tesla, the two sides are still running, so that production can not be opened out."
Shen Guorong's title is Chairman of the Board of 和大集團 ( Google translation has it "and large group," wronged too much), which I believe equivalent to CEO and Chairman and President, all together, i.e. the #1 guy.
From the attached table, 和大集團 provides 减速齿轮箱 (something like reduction gearbox) to Tesla.
Anyone knows how many of these "reduction gearbox(es)" each Model 3 needs?
3. 但Model 3接單量大,特斯拉為確保零組件供應如期交貨且分散風險,採取「雙供應商」做法,即一家為舊供應商,另一家為新供應商。"But Model 3 orders a large amount, Tesla to ensure that the supply of goods on schedule delivery and risk diversification, to take "double supplier" approach, that is, one for the old supplier, the other for the new supplier."
tl;dr:
Seat design not satisfactory, could be redesigned
The boss of that Taiwanese supplier believes that the bottleneck could be partially due to supplier quality issue
Tesla employs "Double supplier" approach, i.e. two suppliers for the same parts to spread risk
BTW, it definitely talks about "per week"
That seems premature to me, although the new info does suggest Tesla still has some cushion left to hit 10K in December 2018 even factoring in some additional delays.
That seems very positive to me.
Agreed. I have 350k model 3's in 2018, so 7,000/week avg for 50 weeks. And 100k to 125k combined model s/x.
I don't understand the seat thing. In every Model 3 interior I've seen, the front seat backs have pockets.
Maybe it is not for the seat in the front, but the back.
In China the Boss / VIP has a driver.
Wouldn't that kind of person be riding in an S or X?
So, the original article in Chinese has some very interesting information. Apparently the 5k/week level was set for October. Temporary adjustment to 3k/wk in December. Going to 10k/wk in late Q2 2018. Says something about supplier problems.
Can someone with Chinese language skills provide a better translation?
I agree — I am optimistic about the prospects for 2018 but was pleasantly surprised by that.
I'm from India and even people driving compact economy cars (by US standards - Civic, Corolla etc.) sometimes have drivers.Wouldn't that kind of person be riding in an S or X?
NASDAQ up 1% but TSLA down 2.5%. This tells us a few things. Market is woefully behind us. We thought 3k/wk is positive because we are coming from a much worse/unpredictable perspective, which Mr.Market was apparently not aware at all.
I also think the risk is to the downside in terms of further delays. Note that the 3K/wk supplier rate is also a prediction, just the same way the earlier 5k/wk rate was also a prediction. Nobody knows if they will hit that prediction, at least until the line is actually moving. Currently the line is entirely stalled based on VIN sightings. So all in all when market discovers that the production is much worse than the news implied, stock price could further tank.
People who are holding out some firepower might find some good deals.
On a related note, each season we seem to get a go-go bull-troll of our own. JC utterly polluted these threads in the X era, pushing people to make ever crazier bets. This time around we got TT. Moral of the story, don't fall for the trolls.
I look at the supplier's comment as an estimate, I doubt Tesla has placed order out to 2018. They might've originally been told by Tesla to expect an order as large as 10K/wk by March. And now with this 5K->3K/wk reduction in Dec, the supplier may have guessed that Tesla's schedule is pushed back by 2 months. I didn't get an impression that the new 10K/wk in May/Jun timeframe came from Tesla.Moving up the date seems premature to me, although the new info does suggest Tesla still has some cushion left to hit 10K in December 2018 even factoring in some additional delays.
That seems very positive to me.
What am I missing here?Musk’s Plant Makeover Even More of a Long Shot as Model 3 Lags
By Dana Hull and John Lippert on Bloomberg Tech, today at 5am
Congrats to you and wife on pulling out and getting back in after a correction. Bet you had a hard time with fomo 6 weeks ago.Me too. Just went all in with June $340's and J19 $350's.
No, this time they are on time:
Now, will we actually be able to achieve volume production on July 1 next year? Of course not.
The reason is that even if 99% of the internally produced items and supplier items are available on July 1, we still cannot produce the car because you cannot produce a car that is missing 1% of its components.
Nonetheless, we need to, both internally and with suppliers, take that date seriously, and there need to be some penalties for anyone, internally or externally, who does not meet that timeframe. This has to be the case because there's just no way that you have several thousand components, all of whom make it on a particular date.
The reality is that the volume production will then be some number of months later, as we solve the supply chain and internal production issues.
the combination of a dread (where are the Model 3s?) and downward pressure on the SP by serious manipulations by the shorts yields a long downward run.
Fair warning everyone, this week's candle is shaping up to be really ugly. 2015 topped in a similar manner (though compressed timeframe between peaks compared to 2017).
Granted, there's a lot of catalysts coming up, but once there's downward momentum shorts tend to regain confidence and the last month or two of progress can be quickly erased...
Not calling it downward momentum yet. However, ending the week <370 will look like a topping red candle on weekly. Anymore downside next week (another Monday morning downgrade, etc) will easily make for some downward momentum - which would "confirm" this week's candle, and closing next week below $356 will additionally make for an ugly red topping candle on monthly. Anything less than an awesome delivery report in early October will only serve to embolden shorts further after that. And all that is even assuming macro doesn't act up too much...
Guess what I'm saying is, with low market volumes and no major positive news on TSLA, short manipulation becomes way easier. Without some positive surprise or two, (TSLA Friday beast mode, "material" news next week, something surprising in Australia, and/or awesome Q3 deliveries), it's very possible we could end up back in the lower $300's again before $400, perhaps when public Model 3 deliveries start to pick up in November/Dec.
tl;dr: be careful, $350 or less very well could happen before $400.