2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[dennis]

In case you missed this upthread:

2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

The supplier appears to make reduction gears. So probably 1 part per car.

It is quite possible that the dual motor requires two reduction gears. Which would explain the doubling of the parts order in early 2018. Which would explain the small delay since going through production hell is likely to result in a small delay in the production of dual motor M3's. Which would mean that the doubling of orders from this particular supplier would have nothing to do with upping production to 10K/week.

 

[mongo]

What would also be interesting to know is whether they need to solve all the bottlenecks to speed up the production and as long as there is an existing bottleneck the production can't go faster, or each bottlenecks solved means faster production ?

Line can only go as fast as slowest operation. That said, if the problem is supply of a part vs assembly on the main line, the line could be tweaked and optimized such that, when parts are available, it runs at the optimized rate.

 

[Lump]

Will post my technical thoughts on SP sometime over the weekend
I still hold all my position with no intent to sell
20% SP correction is pretty routine for TSLA
I mean seriously SP fell to $303 on July 2017
No big deal
If you can’t handle the heat get the hell out of kitchen

Need a tracker for the number of times you have left TMC & said you were never coming back & yet here your are once again.

 

[Lessmog]

Will post my technical thoughts on SP sometime over the weekend
I still hold all my position with no intent to sell
20% SP correction is pretty routine for TSLA
I mean seriously SP fell to $303 on July 2017
No big deal
If you can’t handle the heat get the hell out of kitchen

... or get s'more?

 

[JRP3]

If you can’t handle the heat get the hell out of kitchen

Need a tracker for the number of times you have left TMC & said you were never coming back & yet here your are once again.

Seriously. I'm amazed at the number of people who don't see his behavior for what it is and actually think he has something to add to this board.

 

[Lump]

Seriously. I'm amazed at the number of people who don't see his behavior for what it is and actually think he has something to add to this board.

At least he is not as long winded as Julian Cox & hasn't threatened anyone with physical violence.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

It is quite possible that the dual motor requires two reduction gears. Which would explain the doubling of the parts order in early 2018. Which would explain the small delay since going through production hell is likely to result in a small delay in the production of dual motor M3's. Which would mean that the doubling of orders from this particular supplier would have nothing to do with upping production to 10K/week.

Can anyone confirm that the dual motor requires two reduction gears?

 

[everman]

Shameless plug for my long post in the general thread, I found some Panasonic production line estimate numbers from a guy who claims to have friends/family working for Panasonic. Appears to support the previous Panasonic battery line issues we've heard.

2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

This is a brilliant post, and probably spot on. I work in high tech high volume semiconductor manufacturing the process engineering side. I’m a part of regular production meetings along with equipment engineering as necessary support to the production team. All three of these teams are crucial to making production ramp goals.

I suppose my comment is just to commiserate, and to say that all this information sounds completely accurate. The comment about lines being down for months waiting for a 3c o-ring may not be precise, but tools (and therefore lines) down for parts with long lead times is a regular occurrence when bringing up first in fab or custom tools.

We have been trying to ramp our fab by 40% from January run rates all year, and are only about half way there. This is in a fab that is 20 years old and have very established tooling, procedures and parts. Supplier issues requiring second source part qualifications routinely plague us, and training large amounts of staff while promoting the experienced staff off the floor creates huge experience vacuums.

Suffice to say this post has triggered flashbacks, and has completely opened my mind to what is really happening in a huge brand new factory. We should all be focusing on the GF and watching closely for the Panasonic + Tesla partnership to work through these issues as a top priority, but also realize these type of bottlenecks are structural and will not be ‘solved’, only gradually improved.

Silver lining: EVERY other company attempting a huge new high volume battery factory will likely encounter almost the exact same challenges. These are unfortunately inherent to the complexity of the task. While our ramp may be slowed, no other company will be able to simply leap-frog us as a result. Based on my experience, the advantage will come from the company with the most supportive company culture, as the sheer output required from employees will burn through humans like tissue paper. Panasonic’s culture is the wild card in this equation.

Thank you again for such an eye opening post!!

 

[GoTslaGo]

Seriously. I'm amazed at the number of people who don't see his behavior for what it is and actually think he has something to add to this board.

I for one, appreciate his TAs. Some good perspective and insights on how he approaches his TAs. Also how he balances fundamentals and TAs.

I do wish @TrendTrader007 would use the tech analysis sub forum more as it would dovetail nicely with things over there. And make it easier to find and reference....

so I can draw more unicorns!

 

[bdy0627]

Seriously. I'm amazed at the number of people who don't see his behavior for what it is and actually think he has something to add to this board.

TT007 made what turned out to be an amazingly accurate call on the stock movement going into Q2 ER. Everyone else was mired in doom and gloom, including me. His was a very welcome perspective. On the other hand, how many dozens of times can someone add the very last shares they are going to add? I have to admit to adding leverage at one point, partly based upon TT007's enthusiasm, when we were up pretty close to an ATH. I ended up regretting it and I'm not as naive now. Ultimately, I enjoy his posts but also take them with a few grains of salt.

 

[jelloslug]

Can anyone confirm that the dual motor requires two reduction gears?

On the S&X it does.

 

[Lessmog]

Can anyone confirm that the dual motor requires two reduction gears?

Isn't that pretty obvious? One for each motor?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Isn't that pretty obvious? One for each motor?

Sounds obvious but the wording below is "quite possible" and I'm not a car guy, so asking for help.

It is quite possible that the dual motor requires two reduction gears. Which would explain the doubling of the parts order in early 2018. Which would explain the small delay since going through production hell is likely to result in a small delay in the production of dual motor M3's. Which would mean that the doubling of orders from this particular supplier would have nothing to do with upping production to 10K/week.

@dennis - I think your post is assuming all cars produced in or after 2Q will be dual motor...

If dual motor requires two reduction gears, and if reduction gear order is doubled, and if dual motor production comprises less than all of production in 2Q and beyond, then it's still a significant increase in cars produced.

 

[mongo]

Can anyone confirm that the dual motor requires two reduction gears?

If indeed they are gears are the motor to differential set.

Isn't that pretty obvious? One for each motor?

To be fair, it is only conjecture that the gears in question are the main drive reduction and differential set AFAIK. I recall an issue with a gear driven pump supplier earlier, in which case the pump may only exist on the rear DU.

Edit typo

 

[Lessmog]

If indeed they are gears are the motor to differential set.

To be fair, it is only conjecture that the gears in question are the main drive reduction and differential set AFAIK. I recall an issue with a gear driven pump supplier earlier, in which case the pump may only exist on the rear DU.

Edit typo

Oh absolutely, we are in the dark guessing wildly here. We even have to guess what exact product the Taiwan company makes in quantities of 3k, 5k or 10k per week. But the question here was whether two drive motors need two reduction gears, and to me that answer is a no-brainer.
Edit: Not a car guy either.
Sorry to add to the noise, just trying to clear up some unneeded confusion.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Need a tracker for the number of times you have left TMC & said you were never coming back & yet here your are once again.

Great idea. Would also advocate a counter on how many times DaveT has threatened to leave. What’s good for one is good for all

 

[TradingInvest]

TT007 came at it from an entertainer point of view. Not many folks have signed up to be interviewed by DaveT. And now our beloved entertainer is gone, and we are stuck with all the negative Nancys.

I feel on average this board doesn't have enough experience to deserve TT007. He is really good based on my private conversation with him. He knows what he is doing and posts his thoughts as is. There are a few other great investors/traders on this board too.

Normal investors who don't have the time and experience to research companies, should stay with index. If you know you have the skill and energy to beat the index, you should put about 20% into each holdings. You can allow it to grow into a larger percentage. This small diversification is very important for your account's safety, performance and your sleep quality. If you are not sure about this part, study the views from Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and Philip Fisher.

Again for normal investors: Don't use borrowed money. Don't use margin. Don't gamble. If you want to do options, do a small amount only when technical, fundamental, market, and everything else lined up perfectly so you are very sure about the direction and timing. At this moment, I am not sure about the direction nor the timing. For long term I am pretty confident Tesla's market cap will be several fold larger than $54B.

One more word from Warren Buffett: "for those who know what they are doing, diversification doesn't make any sense." I totally agree with him.

 

[Intl Professor]

Nobody likes a cry baby
Wall Street 2

Except for some voters.

 

[mongo]

Oh absolutely, we are in the dark guessing wildly here. We even have to guess what exact product the Taiwan company makes in quantities of 3k, 5k or 10k per week. But the question here was whether two drive motors need two reduction gears, and to me that answer is a no-brainer.
Edit: Not a car guy either.
Sorry to add to the noise, just trying to clear up some unneeded confusion.

I know, right.
Each DU has a reduction gear set and some type of differential. Who makes it, how many suppliers, is there a gear driven pump?

SO MANY QUESTIONS!

 

[3Victoria]

Can anyone confirm that the dual motor requires two reduction gears?

Yes, each motor needs a reduction gear ... BUT the rear and forward motor/reduction gear are very likely different beasts. Both the motor (in terms of power, speed/efficiency) and gear (ratio of gears) are likely different so that the car can maximize efficiency at different speeds.