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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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It appears to me that these charges are not brand specific. If Tesla really wanted they could make an adaptor.... I'm not sure what plug type Tesla uses in Europe. The chargers are only good news for Tesla owners.
Yes, standard is good. (What made Ford possible.)

Tesla uses the Type 2 contact in Europe because it is standard. But the signalling is specific, so even if some people have plugged in their VW on a Supercharger and tried to charge, it fails because they lack the secret handshake. Tesla keeps track of the individual car connecting, so they can get paid for power and/or for staying after charging completed.

I guess it would be possible to extend this functionality to an adapter, but not trivial. Probably easiest to make the adapter responsible for payment?
 
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Trading on open was a robust 259,000 shares. TSLA dipped just prior to 10am when the NASDAQ dipped, but both are rising now. I'm watching for either a climb that that is not a reflection of the NASDAQ and encourages more buying as a positive catalyst or another dip of the NASDAQ in the lower volume afternoon, which shorts could leverage as a negative catalyst.
 
TSLA is hanging above 250 SMA line.
I've noticed in the past that it reacts to 250 line on the shorter timescales. Not sure there is any significance on the daily, but it's a line :)

teslahangingonthe250line.JPG
 
Model 3 Owners Club on Twitter

Based on this poll it looks like they could lose ~25% of US M3 reservations due to the $7500 tax incentive disappearing. Right now they have ~450K reservation, if 1/2 of those are US, and losing 25% of those, they would lose ~55K, and end up with ~400K. Tack on a 80% take rate guesstimate in general on reservations, we're still looking at over 300K M3s. It would take a very successful ramp to satisfy that demand in 2018.
Which is ridiculous because most of those people were never going to get the full credit to begin with.
 
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New to this forum ... I've been a TSLA investor for a little over a year now ..... bought in around 165. Mostly long term holding although I did sell at one point and bought back in again after the stock went from 230ish to under 200 in short order .... got lucky.

I've been a LONG time investor in Apple and have done very well .... I see many of the same parallels with the two companies in terms of products ... not so much in terms of management styles unfortunately. Elon really needs to understand the idea of UPOD but I will say he is quite the visionary and maybe those two traits don't go well together. Regardless .... the MOST important thing to me is product and in that regard Tesla is in very good shape. Once you have a product people want, the rest can be worked out with patience and hard work .....

In addition to being on the waiting list for a Model 3 , I'm also in the middle of installing solar on a new house we built using Solarcity/Tesla energy. Also being the kind of investor who likes to use the products I invest in I will often make trips into the stores just to chat and find out how things are going .... unfortunately I've been VERY disappointed in Tesla staff as well as my Solar City rep. I find them mostly to be very uninformed and often times people have just flat out given me incorrect information .... such as:

Tesla employee told me in the store that I would not like a model 3 because I was too tall ... I'm 6'1" .... Elon is taller than me. Now, he had not even sat in the car !!! This same genius told me that I could qualify for the $7500 tax credit on a USED model S ... assuming the previous owner had not claimed the credit .... I don't think so. He also told me that he would never buy a first gen product ... such as a Model 3 .... If I heard any of this and was a manager I would have thrown him out on his ass in 2 seconds flat. Complete idiot.

My Solarcity rep showed up in a Ford Leaf and wanted to show it to me ???? I told him he should be in a Tesla and if he wasn't why the hell would he want to show me another maker's EV ??? He also tried to get me to buy the Powerwall which I would love to do but my city doesn't have any tiered pricing nor does it charge peak time and it gives me a 1 to 1 credit for all the energy I create .... I literally took me 45 mins on the phone to explain this to my rep ... who had to ask his "boss" several questions about how it worked ..... he's a nice guy but really .... I'd fire him as well. Pitiful sales people who seem so uninformed. Now I'm a Tesla shareholder and I LOVE everything the company stands for so it's really painful for me to have these experiences.

In any case, I just wanted to share my thoughts on the Federal Tax credit ..... It should be noted that manufacturers only get 200,000 cars worth of credit each and I believe they have sold somewhere close to that in S and X models already ... maybe just a little shy of that. Regardless, anyone buying the Model 3 should expect NOT to receive this credit and I don't think this will affect purchases very much at all ... in fact other makers have sold quite a few LESS cars and that would mean the Model 3 would be competing against cars that do qualify for the credit so pulling that credit could actually HELP model 3 sales as the other cars would no longer have that advantage.

Best to all on the forum ... I'll chime in if and when I have something relevant to say.
 
China is not a great country, far from it. their workers are earning dirt low salary. A country that has 4x bigger population and also lower GDP than the US, the resource is not high if you distribute to among all its people. no foreigners would want to work in a country for 300-400 USD a month.

I think you take a traditional, income approach, neglecting ppp. Check out Bob Gates, former Defense Secretary, on Charley Rose a few nights ago. That Republican stalwart is fearful the rest of the world has a low opinion of our "Democracy," and eyes more positively China where the ruling party despite its hierarchical, top-down status, is committed to real reforms benefitting and expanding the middle class. The Republican Party and old Democratic leadership after the Donna Brazile (sp?) reveal is more interested in serving the rich donor class. That is clear in the results of the 2016 primary battles.
 
New to this forum ... I've been a TSLA investor for a little over a year now ..... bought in around 165. Mostly long term holding although I did sell at one point and bought back in again after the stock went from 230ish to under 200 in short order .... got lucky.

I've been a LONG time investor in Apple and have done very well .... I see many of the same parallels with the two companies in terms of products ... not so much in terms of management styles unfortunately. Elon really needs to understand the idea of UPOD but I will say he is quite the visionary and maybe those two traits don't go well together. Regardless .... the MOST important thing to me is product and in that regard Tesla is in very good shape. Once you have a product people want, the rest can be worked out with patience and hard work .....

In addition to being on the waiting list for a Model 3 , I'm also in the middle of installing solar on a new house we built using Solarcity/Tesla energy. Also being the kind of investor who likes to use the products I invest in I will often make trips into the stores just to chat and find out how things are going .... unfortunately I've been VERY disappointed in Tesla staff as well as my Solar City rep. I find them mostly to be very uninformed and often times people have just flat out given me incorrect information .... such as:

Tesla employee told me in the store that I would not like a model 3 because I was too tall ... I'm 6'1" .... Elon is taller than me. Now, he had not even sat in the car !!! This same genius told me that I could qualify for the $7500 tax credit on a USED model S ... assuming the previous owner had not claimed the credit .... I don't think so. He also told me that he would never buy a first gen product ... such as a Model 3 .... If I heard any of this and was a manager I would have thrown him out on his ass in 2 seconds flat. Complete idiot.

My Solarcity rep showed up in a Ford Leaf and wanted to show it to me ???? I told him he should be in a Tesla and if he wasn't why the hell would he want to show me another maker's EV ??? He also tried to get me to buy the Powerwall which I would love to do but my city doesn't have any tiered pricing nor does it charge peak time and it gives me a 1 to 1 credit for all the energy I create .... I literally took me 45 mins on the phone to explain this to my rep ... who had to ask his "boss" several questions about how it worked ..... he's a nice guy but really .... I'd fire him as well. Pitiful sales people who seem so uninformed. Now I'm a Tesla shareholder and I LOVE everything the company stands for so it's really painful for me to have these experiences.

In any case, I just wanted to share my thoughts on the Federal Tax credit ..... It should be noted that manufacturers only get 200,000 cars worth of credit each and I believe they have sold somewhere close to that in S and X models already ... maybe just a little shy of that. Regardless, anyone buying the Model 3 should expect NOT to receive this credit and I don't think this will affect purchases very much at all ... in fact other makers have sold quite a few LESS cars and that would mean the Model 3 would be competing against cars that do qualify for the credit so pulling that credit could actually HELP model 3 sales as the other cars would no longer have that advantage.

Best to all on the forum ... I'll chime in if and when I have something relevant to say.
What's a Ford Leaf?
 
New to this forum ... I've been a TSLA investor for a little over a year now ..... bought in around 165. Mostly long term holding although I did sell at one point and bought back in again after the stock went from 230ish to under 200 in short order .... got lucky.

I've been a LONG time investor in Apple and have done very well .... I see many of the same parallels with the two companies in terms of products ... not so much in terms of management styles unfortunately. Elon really needs to understand the idea of UPOD but I will say he is quite the visionary and maybe those two traits don't go well together. Regardless .... the MOST important thing to me is product and in that regard Tesla is in very good shape. Once you have a product people want, the rest can be worked out with patience and hard work .....

In addition to being on the waiting list for a Model 3 , I'm also in the middle of installing solar on a new house we built using Solarcity/Tesla energy. Also being the kind of investor who likes to use the products I invest in I will often make trips into the stores just to chat and find out how things are going .... unfortunately I've been VERY disappointed in Tesla staff as well as my Solar City rep. I find them mostly to be very uninformed and often times people have just flat out given me incorrect information .... such as:

Tesla employee told me in the store that I would not like a model 3 because I was too tall ... I'm 6'1" .... Elon is taller than me. Now, he had not even sat in the car !!! This same genius told me that I could qualify for the $7500 tax credit on a USED model S ... assuming the previous owner had not claimed the credit .... I don't think so. He also told me that he would never buy a first gen product ... such as a Model 3 .... If I heard any of this and was a manager I would have thrown him out on his ass in 2 seconds flat. Complete idiot.

My Solarcity rep showed up in a Ford Leaf and wanted to show it to me ???? I told him he should be in a Tesla and if he wasn't why the hell would he want to show me another maker's EV ??? He also tried to get me to buy the Powerwall which I would love to do but my city doesn't have any tiered pricing nor does it charge peak time and it gives me a 1 to 1 credit for all the energy I create .... I literally took me 45 mins on the phone to explain this to my rep ... who had to ask his "boss" several questions about how it worked ..... he's a nice guy but really .... I'd fire him as well. Pitiful sales people who seem so uninformed. Now I'm a Tesla shareholder and I LOVE everything the company stands for so it's really painful for me to have these experiences.

In any case, I just wanted to share my thoughts on the Federal Tax credit ..... It should be noted that manufacturers only get 200,000 cars worth of credit each and I believe they have sold somewhere close to that in S and X models already ... maybe just a little shy of that. Regardless, anyone buying the Model 3 should expect NOT to receive this credit and I don't think this will affect purchases very much at all ... in fact other makers have sold quite a few LESS cars and that would mean the Model 3 would be competing against cars that do qualify for the credit so pulling that credit could actually HELP model 3 sales as the other cars would no longer have that advantage.

Best to all on the forum ... I'll chime in if and when I have something relevant to say.

important to get these bad experiences out in the open so they can be fixed.

about the 200.000 cars. your wrong in this.

wheb 200k is reached, the clock counts down. but credit is not instantly zero.

they have 1q+1q (?) with full credit, no matter how many cars. then it is stepped down. based time. not cars delivered. so if they ramp up and time properly they can deliver another 2-300k cars with large credits.

(will edit, might be some inaccuracies here)
 
In my experience, sales people are just that. Sales people, and not tech people. It’s the reason why for tech companies there are positions called “sales engineer” where the sales person actually knows the product, but then there’s another sales person that does all that people person stuff that is techies generally don’t care for as much. ;)
For any kind of retail situation, if I’m genuinely interested in a product, I generally know more than the salesperson about it.
 
important to get these bad experiences out in the open so they can be fixed.

about the 200.000 cars. your wrong in this.

wheb 200k is reached, the clock counts down. but credit is not instantly zero.

they have 1q with full credit, no matter how many cars. then it is stepped down. based on 1q at a time. not cars delivered. so if they ramp up and time properly they can deliver another 2-300k cars with large credits.

(will edit, might be some inaccuracies here)

US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker

"Each independent automaker’s eligible plug-in vehicles receive a federal credit (up to $7,500) federal credit – until the 200,000th plug-in is registered inside the US, when a countdown for phaseout of the credit begins.

At the time of the 200,000th sales, and so as not to disrupt/confuse those buying the EVs, that full $7,500 credit continues through the end of the current quarter and to the completion of the next quarter. After this period ends the “phase-out” begins, meaning the credit is reduced to $3,750 for the next 6 months, then to $1,875 for the next 6 months before expiring completely.

During any part of the phase-out process (between sale #200,000 and the calendar expiry date), the OEM is free to BUILD AND SELL AS MANY EVS as they can/want, receiving the applicable incentive amount"
 
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Sorry ... I meant Nissan Leaf ..... with regards to the tax credits .. Runarbt, thanks for the information I'm going to check up on this as I had understood there was no partial credit. I'm hoping I'm wrong and maybe somehow I'll get some money back on my Model 3 but I highly doubt it as I'm not high on the list. Of course, with our current administration and new tax proposal the point could be moot.
 
Automaker supercharger initiative plans 20 chargers in Europe in 2017, 100 next year ....

Carmakers plan 400 Europe car charging stations by 2020

Joint ‘ultra-fast’ electric car charging network unveiled by BMW, Mercedes, Ford and Volkswagen

Good news that they finally wake up .... but:

- today they have not a single car in the market that can be charged with 350 kw (Porsche may be the first one with that technology)
- the ramp sounds very slow given the combined investment power of Porsche, Audi, Ford, Daimler, VW (400 units in 2020)
- Large batteries are required to profit as a consumer from fast chargers and they still need to be developed from the industry
- Investment is really small with 4 M€ for 2017 and 16 m€ in 2018. A part of those is even paid by governments

Although I appreciate the effort it sounds really more like marketing and half hearted than a serious effort to make a change. Give the timeline they won't have anything that scales available until 2020 - 2025.

Still good to see that they go up to 350 kW...... although it will be worthless unless you buy a not yet available Porsche.
It reminds me of this Kill Bill moment (starts at ~6:03 mark in the video). They got Tesla surrounded but they're afraid to fight.

 
Model 3 Owners Club on Twitter

Based on this poll it looks like they could lose ~25% of US M3 reservations due to the $7500 tax incentive disappearing. Right now they have ~450K reservation, if 1/2 of those are US, and losing 25% of those, they would lose ~55K, and end up with ~400K. Tack on a 80% take rate guesstimate in general on reservations, we're still looking at over 300K M3s. It would take a very successful ramp to satisfy that demand in 2018.

It is currently at 13%. It is also a bad poll, it forces you to vote in order to see results.
 

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It is currently at 13%. It is also a bad poll, it forces you to vote in order to see results.
Yes I wouldn't place too much trust in the exact number. Also those who voted to buy MS/X are still Tesla customers, but since Q4 MS/X demand is already filled up (sense I got from Tesla's conf call), this group may not help add more car delivery to Q4. So for M3 delivery, I only counted people who say that they want to keep the reservation, which is 73%.
 
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