2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[winfield100]

Do you only hang out in TMC? lol if so, you won't get all accurate information. You are entitled to your opinion if you think yours are better than mines or that I don't have a say in this forum. I am providing my version of perception here.. I don't always reflect everything about Tesla negatively.

We know more about Tesla than you. Then tell me what you know about it. I would like to hear if the stock is going up or down tomorrow or next week. Lets see, if you really know ALOT about Tesla. lol

@justin w are you one of the troll shortz from SA that have transferred Billions of dollars to the longs? If so, i thank you in part for my subsidized lifestyle compliments of the TSLA shortz. If you ever get to Kaua'i, I highly recommend the bakery near Lihue called "MonkeyPodJam" and try the baklava, my recipe developed over 40 years, then relax
happy investing
Alohaha

 

[jackdillio]

Monday it is... =]

Now we can focus back on real Tesla topics.

In this forum, most of us have positions in Tesla or waiting for model 3 or both...

No Tesla trash talk.. No Tesla bashing.. No hatin...

Tesla is ready to raise to the top and dominate the world. It is determined to conquer each and every part of this planet.

ALL HEIL TESLA!!

 

[Intl Professor]

Monday it is... =]

Now we can focus back on real Tesla topics.

In this forum, most of us have positions in Tesla or waiting for model 3 or both...

No Tesla trash talk.. No Tesla bashing.. No hatin...

Tesla is ready to raise to the mother fukin top and dominate the world. It is determined to conquer each and every part of this planet.

ALL HEIL TESLA!!

Mod Edit: Warned about profanity. Also, from my viewpoint, any reference to the Nazis as though associated with Tesla or TMC is "beyond the pale." There might be consequences beyond my power.

 

[Intl Professor]

Mod Edit: Warned about profanity. Also, from my viewpoint, any reference to the Nazis as though associated with Tesla or TMC is "beyond the pale." There might be consequences beyond my power.

Should you object to this interference, again with all due respect to Goldwater, sarcasm as defense of any kind of profanity is not a virtue.

 

[Lessmog]

Should you object to this interference, again with all due respect to Goldwater, sarcasm as defense of any kind of profanity is not a virtue.

Referencing Goldwater also comes close to the line, but I'll let it pass.

 

[2virgule5]

Please please - make sure to get this to the press quickly. This is actually an exponential rise coming off the 222 Q3 production. Four times the rate is 300% growth in a month alone. (though I had read elsewhere about registration of a Vin # in the 2000+ area).

VIN counting is not an exact science as they are not issued sequentially, for all we know they may have produced no more than 500 total. We need to see more of these in the days ahead.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Monday it is... =]

Now we can focus back on real Tesla topics.

In this forum, most of us have positions in Tesla or waiting for model 3 or both...

No Tesla trash talk.. No Tesla bashing.. No hatin...

Tesla is ready to raise to the mother fukin top and dominate the world. It is determined to conquer each and every part of this planet.

ALL HEIL TESLA!!

And off you go to the list that makes it impossible for me to see your further 'contribution'

 

[3Victoria]

And off you go to the list that makes it impossible for me to see your further 'contribution'

Unfortunately my list has had remarkable growth over the last week ... like a rocket.

 

[hobbes]

VIN counting is not an exact science as they are not issued sequentially, for all we know they may have produced no more than 500 total. We need to see more of these in the days ahead.

Repeating this over and over does not make it any more true (not by you, by many people). In general, VINs are issued sequentially - see the plot below I made in 2015 from the spreadsheet where people report their VINs, when they got them and when they got the cars. Is it an exact science? Certainly not, but is it worth looking at? You bet. Thing is, if you just take 2 VINs and their date and accidentally pick outliers, you are way off. That happened to some people a while ago and ever since, many people think the VINs are somehow scrambled. They´re not (at least not through last year when I last did this analysis).

Applying this to the current situation with Model 3, my take is that they delivered something like 500 cars of which there were many sightings. After that, they probably kept building but didn´t complete the cars due to missing parts (battery packs?). So they stored them. That explains why there are way more VINs registered with the NHTSA than VIN sightings (VINs assigned at beginning of production). So now we suddenly see a M3 with VIN in the 800 range. Does that mean they delivered another 300 over night? Obviously not. Looks like for some reason this is the first car that got a battery pack out of those stored (if my theory is right). So if they start getting more packs, we might see lots of new cars delivered in a very short time, as they just have to mount the battery.

 

[TNEVol]

In addition the lack of batching for international delivery makes VIN counting more likely to be accurate.

 

[electracity]

After that, they probably kept building but didn´t complete the cars due to missing parts (battery packs?).

Not likely, as that would be really inefficient. If they are building incomplete finished car they have no confidence in a decent production ramp any time soon.

 

[mongo]

Not likely, as that would be really inefficient. If they are building incomplete finished car they have no confidence in a decent production ramp any time soon.

IIRC, during the call, they said they are doing burst runs on the assembly line. These would give good confidence in the processes they are able to test. It also means they need to either pass them through line stages that aren't operating or pull them off to make space for the next vehicle.

Regarding VINs, if the are running the first section of the line, storing the partially completed vehicles until they have packs available, and then reintroducing them to the line, they might be queued in LIFO (last in first out) order. So they would exit the line in reverse VIN order.

 

[Snapdragon III]

IIRC, during the call, they said they are doing burst runs on the assembly line. These would give good confidence in the processes they are able to test. It also means they need to either pass them through line stages that aren't operating or pull them off to make space for the next vehicle.

Regarding VINs, if the are running the first section of the line, storing the partially completed vehicles until they have packs available, and then reintroducing them to the line, they might be queued in LIFO (last in first out) order. So they would exit the line in reverse VIN order.

I think if they were stockpiling finished cars without the battery packs, they would have mentioned it on the call. This would have assured people that the battery module was the main problem.

 

[mongo]

I think if they were stockpiling finished cars without the battery packs, they would have mentioned it on the call. This would have assured people that the battery module was the main problem.

They can't be finished cars due to the increased integration of the battery pack. It has more electrical connections on top that need to be mated before the rear seats go in.

Could possibly pull then off line before that step though.

 

[geneclean55]

They went into reasonable detail discussing burst runs of the other main components of the car.
Elon also seemed fairly upbeat about thousands in December.
So you could put those 2 pieces of info together and...

 

[2virgule5]

Repeating this over and over does not make it any more true (not by you, by many people). In general, VINs are issued sequentially - see the plot below I made in 2015 from the spreadsheet where people report their VINs, when they got them and when they got the cars. Is it an exact science? Certainly not, but is it worth looking at? You bet. Thing is, if you just take 2 VINs and their date and accidentally pick outliers, you are way off. That happened to some people a while ago and ever since, many people think the VINs are somehow scrambled. They´re not (at least not through last year when I last did this analysis).

Applying this to the current situation with Model 3, my take is that they delivered something like 500 cars of which there were many sightings. After that, they probably kept building but didn´t complete the cars due to missing parts (battery packs?). So they stored them. That explains why there are way more VINs registered with the NHTSA than VIN sightings (VINs assigned at beginning of production). So now we suddenly see a M3 with VIN in the 800 range. Does that mean they delivered another 300 over night? Obviously not. Looks like for some reason this is the first car that got a battery pack out of those stored (if my theory is right). So if they start getting more packs, we might see lots of new cars delivered in a very short time, as they just have to mount the battery.

View attachment 258126

Thx. I'm not arguying that VIN counting does not have value. It is obvious that even if cars are NOT getting built exactly in the VIN order, there is a strong correlation that gets closer to the total amount of car built over time, particularly as the number gets very high, which your great graph clearly shows.
What the graph doesn't show are the first few weeks and months of the model S ramp, so I'm trying to say that, being this early in the ramp for m3, we don't really know (do we?). Just a word of caution to our overly optimistic forum (and our recent new members) that a VIN in the 800s certainly does not mean 800 produced. I'm speculating like you about 500s, which would mean about the same amount of cars produced in Oct vs Sept, which does not yet show an exponential improvement.
More importantly, I'll be glad like many others here to be completely wrong ;-)

 

[geneclean55]

On the flip-side, early VINS are not subject to the vagaries of VIN assignment overlaid onto international geographical batching.

 

[Words of HABIT]

TSLA has been reset. IMO SP will not return back to ATH until Tesla confirms 5000/week M3 production, hopefully by Q1 results announced April '18. Semi reveal, TE, Solar Roof, Truck reveal, GF announcements shouldn't budge the needle as their mass production and profit scenarios are too far (years) in the future, and require extensive CapEx in the interim. With continued M3 production bottlenecks, Q4 results will likely be disappointing.

Long term TSLA bull, common shares only, not selling, still believe in Tesla Motors and their mission statement, M3 reservation holder, however am resetting my expectations:

End of '17 - +-$300/sh (expect 4Q 4000 M3, 12500 MS, 12500 MS)
April '18 +-$380/sh (expect 5000/wk M3, 1100/wk MS, 1100/wk MX)
April '19 +-$500/sh (expect 10,000/wk M3, 1200/wk MS, 1200/wk MX)

When I first started reading the TMC investment threads in late 2012, most posters were ahead of the curve and informative. This last quarterly report was a big miss by Tesla and a big miss by TMC posters including me (MMD and Username got it right this time though). This thread now has 10X the posts with one post worth reading for every ten posted. Insightful meaningful posts (both bull and bear thesis) are drowned out by so much noise. It was nice to see DaveT return here recently. I'm taking a break from this soap opera, more time to spend with family and friends. I'll be sure to check back at the above three time frames mentioned and compare my estimates with actual results, and I'll let you know when I pick up my M3 reserved April 1/17 (current delivery schedule unchanged at late 2018).
Wishing the best to all.
Daniel

 

[hobbes]

Thx. I'm not arguying that VIN counting does not have value. It is obvious that even if cars are NOT getting built exactly in the VIN order, there is a strong correlation that gets closer to the total amount of car built over time, particularly as the number gets very high, which your great graph clearly shows.
What the graph doesn't show are the first few weeks and months of the model S ramp, so I'm trying to say that, being this early in the ramp for m3, we don't really know (do we?). Just a word of caution to our overly optimistic forum (and our recent new members) that a VIN in the 800s certainly does not mean 800 produced. I'm speculating like you about 500s, which would mean about the same amount of cars produced in Oct vs Sept, which does not yet show an exponential improvement.
More importantly, I'll be glad like many others here to be completely wrong ;-)

I agree as produced means "finished production" I guess. However, I´d argue that 800 or more cars have started production. It is also true that in the early stages, things are much more messy and while later on the order in which VINs are assigned is mostly the order in which cars are finished/delivered, that is much less the case in early production.

 

[justin w]

TSLA has been reset. IMO SP will not return back to ATH until Tesla confirms 5000/week M3 production, hopefully by Q1 results announced April '18. Semi reveal, TE, Solar Roof, Truck reveal, GF announcements shouldn't budge the needle as their mass production and profit scenarios are too far (years) in the future, and require extensive CapEx in the interim. With continued M3 production bottlenecks, Q4 results will likely be disappointing.

Long term TSLA bull, common shares only, not selling, still believe in Tesla Motors and their mission statement, M3 reservation holder, however am resetting my expectations:

End of '17 - +-$300/sh (expect 4Q 4000 M3, 12500 MS, 12500 MS)
April '18 +-$380/sh (expect 5000/wk M3, 1100/wk MS, 1100/wk MX)
April '19 +-$500/sh (expect 10,000/wk M3, 1200/wk MS, 1200/wk MX)

When I first started reading the TMC investment threads in late 2012, most posters were ahead of the curve and informative. This last quarterly report was a big miss by Tesla and a big miss by TMC posters including me (MMD and Username got it right this time though). This thread now has 10X the posts with one post worth reading for every ten posted. Insightful meaningful posts (both bull and bear thesis) are drowned out by so much noise. It was nice to see DaveT return here recently. I'm taking a break from this soap opera, more time to spend with family and friends. I'll be sure to check back at the above three time frames mentioned and compare my estimates with actual results, and I'll let you know when I pick up my M3 reserved April 1/17 (current delivery schedule unchanged at late 2018).
Wishing the best to all.
Daniel

Your post has more logic than any other posters. Most of them dropped their balls on this ER news, especially TrendTrader007 said price will hit 500 next month. Some posters even try to polish a turd then present it as gold.

Until Tesla fixes this one giant model 3 mess, stocks will not go UP, UP, UPPITY. Tesla is basically a Model 3 company. No one cares about model S and X as much. All eyes are on model 3 production. If model 3 production sucks or stall, stock will go down. vice versa

my formula: MASSIVE BUYER + MASSIVE PRODUCTION = SUCCESS (STOCK UP)