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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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What I find funny about his presentation is that he attributes the rise to the 100 Semi order.
Let me remind everyone that 100 Semi will bring about as much revenue and profit as 300 Model 3.
With over 450k M3 reservations, the Semi is at the level of noise, a rounding error.
Semi reservations will become material when they reach the same order of magnitude in effect, ie around 150 thousand, so 100 Semi order should have the power of moving the stock by ~$0.03 and not by $30.

Sure, monetarily, it's not overly significant. But I think it has significant psychological value.
 
Max Pain | Maximum-Pain.com
now it shows $330
SP seems to be pushed hard towards it

It's Triple Witching Day, the quarterly expiration of stock index futures, stock index options and individual stock options. While TSLA also has monthly and weekly options (not all stocks do), its quarterly options generally have greater open interest including investors who are not typically day traders. So hedge funds and market makers will target retail investors to make owning the options unprofitable and writing them profitable to the greatest degree possible. This can lead to manipulative gyrations in the share price as the options approach expiration. The Max Pain of $330 may be tough for them to nail today, so $340 could be their more reasonable target.

BTW, the term was Triple Witching Day when first devised, then the marketing department at one of the exchanges started calling it Quadruple Witching Day to promote a new product. Those who are more knowledgeable are aware that witches in mythology and literature (including Shakespeare) typically came in threes, not fours. So using the original term demonstrated some erudition. Some in the media have been repeating this Quadruple nonsense, but many of us have maintained the usage of the classier term Triple Witching Day.
 
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U.S. News spreading the fake news. No place to leave comments so I left out the link, just the clickbait headline.

Is Tesla On the Brink of Disaster?
The man who predicted Enron's fall sees a similar path for Tesla.
85

By Wayne Duggan, Contributor |Dec. 15, 2017, at 6:55 a.m.

You'd hope that in a couple of years, Chanos's public image of "he who foresaw Enron's collapse" will be replaced with "he who rode his Tesla short all the way up to $2000" and we would be spared enduring his droning stupidity on CNBC every other day.

Alas, for some reason, the world doesn't work that way. Remember that guy who famously explained to us "home gamers" how to avoid being "scorched" by TSLA in the IPO by "getting out after the first day"? You know, the one who told us "Bear Stearns is fine! Do not take your money out!"? He still has one of the highest-rated financial shows on TV (at least he's entertaining).

In the end, the only thing that actually matters is the $score. Or as the saying goes, reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.
 
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U.S. News spreading the fake news. No place to leave comments so I left out the link, just the clickbait headline.

Is Tesla On the Brink of Disaster?
The man who predicted Enron's fall sees a similar path for Tesla.
85

By Wayne Duggan, Contributor |Dec. 15, 2017, at 6:55 a.m.

Clickbait rule of thumb: if the headline contains a question, the answer is always No.
 
I guess that sounds a lot more serious than: The man who predicted the downfall of Caterpillar, Alibaba, and the Chinese economy sees a similar path for Tesla.

I submitted the following message to the Editor at US News and World Report:

I recommend dropping Wayne Duggan from your writing staff. His articles are embarrassingly hackneyed and don't reflect well on your organization. Most readers are now aware that any article title framed as a question is basically disingenuous fake news. Case in point: "Is Tesla On the Brink of Disaster?"

With regards,

Matt Fishbach
Ventura, CA
 
You'd hope that in a couple of years, Chanos's public image of "he who foresaw Enron's collapse" will be replaced with "he who rode his Tesla short all the way up to $2000" and we would be spared enduring his droning stupidity on CNBC every other day.

Alas, for some reason, the world doesn't work that way. Remember that guy who famously explained to us "home gamers" how to avoid being "scorched" by TSLA in the IPO by "getting out after the first day"? You know, the one who told us "Bear Stearns is fine! Do not take your money out!"? He still has one of the highest-rated financial shows on TV (at least he's entertaining).

Judging just by these two videos, this junk is just so so stupid. How did he made his fortune?
 
Judging just by these two videos, this junk is just so so stupid. How did he made his fortune?
In fairness, I personally don't think Cramer is stupid at all. In fact, I think he's highly intelligent.

First, as he said on other occasions, anyone whose main job is to call stock prices day in and day out is bound to make plenty of bad calls; it's just that he's the one shouting them on TV (and I really give him credit for that). To me, this only illustrates how neither intelligence, nor experience, track record, or even constantly being exposed to insiders and other highly informed people, can substitute for the ability to look at reality free of emotion and personal biases. I don't think he's stupid or malicious, but rather with as much experience as he has with the markets, it can become really difficult to step back and maintain a beginner's mind.

Second, to answer your question, he made his money by being a really good professional trader. Trading behind a real trading desk, backed by a real organization, is quite different, and he proved to be able to play that game quite well. While I think he doesn't hold a candle to say, Andrea James, when it comes to analyzing a new player that is changing the game, it's quite possible that Andrea couldn't compete with him as a trader.

Chanos, on the other hand, doesn't strike me as very bright at all. He's only an average, conventional thinker who got lucky.
 
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Musk Says Tesla Is Building Its Own Chip for Autopilot

ROCKETS, ELECTRIC CARS, solar panels, batteries—whirlwind industrialist Elon Musk has set about reinventing one after another. Thursday, he added another ambitious project to the list: Future Tesla vehicles will run their self-driving AI software on a chip designed by the automaker itself.

“We are developing customized AI hardware chips,” Musk told a room of AI experts from companies such as Alphabet and Uber on the sidelines of the world’s leading AI conference. Musk claimed that the chips’ processing power would help Tesla’s Autopilot automated-driving function save more lives, more quickly, by hastening the day it can drive at least 10 times more safely than a human. “We get there faster if we have dedicated AI hardware,” he said. He didn’t say how far along Tesla is in developing a chip, or when it will start shipping inside vehicles.


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[...] $TSLA short interest is 31.9 million shares, around 24% of the float. $10.78 billion of short interest - up $1.15 billion in December. Shorts are down $929 million in mark-to-market losses during December's rally [...]

So assuming the powers to be are trying to keep the value of their shorted stock at about $10b, but the stock rises to push it to $11b, are they going to buy $1b worth of stock back?
 
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