2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Chickenlittle]

Musk Says Tesla Is Building Its Own Chip for Autopilot

ROCKETS, ELECTRIC CARS, solar panels, batteries—whirlwind industrialist Elon Musk has set about reinventing one after another. Thursday, he added another ambitious project to the list: Future Tesla vehicles will run their self-driving AI software on a chip designed by the automaker itself.

“We are developing customized AI hardware chips,” Musk told a room of AI experts from companies such as Alphabet and Uber on the sidelines of the world’s leading AI conference. Musk claimed that the chips’ processing power would help Tesla’s Autopilot automated-driving function save more lives, more quickly, by hastening the day it can drive at least 10 times more safely than a human. “We get there faster if we have dedicated AI hardware,” he said. He didn’t say how far along Tesla is in developing a chip, or when it will start shipping inside vehicles.

<Snip>

Will chips in model3 sold now need to be replaced for full autonomy?

 

[SteveG3]

So assuming the powers to be are trying to keep the value of their shorted stock at about $10b, but the stock rises to push it to $11b, are they going to buy $1b worth of stock back?

What's been consistent in the 5.5 years I've been closely following Tesla is short position of 25% give or take a few percentage points, not a fixed dollar amount. In 2012, that was under $1 billion.

As I've mentioned before, the fact that the short position fell only to 18% (still way on the high end of the %short bellcurve) when Tesla's stock exploded in 2013 is consistent with this speculative scenario of a "fossil fuel-plus cash machine defending" short position. It just occurred to me there was another 2013 event consistent with this scenario... the stock fell from $180 to $120 over a few weeks when 3 Model S fires occurred in very quick succession which received wall-to-wall media coverage. I imagine the historical data is available somewhere, but, fwiw, I have no recollection of any spike in the short position beyond its normal range at the time.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Anyone want to change their vote?

2017 Q4 Deliveries

15,000 Tesla Model 3 Configuration Invites? (Customer Report) | CleanTechnica

 

[Richgoogol]

Republican tax bill retains U.S. electric vehicle tax credit

 

[Dwdnjck]

Lipstick On a Pig.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Will chips in model3 sold now need to be replaced for full autonomy?

In theory, if things go to plan, no - they'll just use their custom AI chips to save costs (and lower energy usage) once they're available.

However, if they do need to replace the AP "brain", they designed all AP2/2.5 cars (and will continue for any newer revisions) such that replacing the "brain" is easy, and have implied (not sure if promised) that if it's needed, they will do it for "free" (in relation to the cost of FSD - in other words, the cost of any FSD hardware upgrades will be just a reduction in margin on FSD option, not an increase in price to the customer).

Time will tell of course, but I wouldn't expect the per-unit cost of upgrade including labor to be more than 500, more likely less than 300 $, so even if they do end up passing the costs on to the customer, in the scheme of things, its not a great expense. The existing AP2/2.5 hardware module is likely costing Tesla much more than $500/unit due to it's use of Nvidia GPU hardware for compute, versus a purpose optimized design.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I'm hopeful for MX & MS deliveries of 27000 Q4, evenly split.

Great to see a lot more M3 sighting proving production is ramping. With all the talk here on TMC of production numbers, it will mean very little to mass media and Mr.Market. They will jump on the delivery numbers which will disappoint and give the bears reason to be, well...bears. Ironic that Tesla is the only auto manufacturer that only counts final deliveries instead of production when reporting their numbers. With only a week to go before Christmas holidays, I'm hopeful for M3 deliveries of 1500 Q4. Tesla is only now getting out of the flat part of the exponential ramp curve and I believe after Q4 earnings release, the heavy anchor grounding TSLA will be cut loose.

Wishing a very Merry Christmas and a happy and prosperous New Year to all those at TMC.

Daniel

 

[bdy0627]

I personally do not expect much of a selloff, if any, based upon the Q4 delivery numbers. With indications that the Model 3 ramp is starting to go well, I believe too many investors won't want to dump the stock just a few weeks before it likely starts to really climb.

 

[avoigt]

I personally do not expect much of a selloff, if any, based upon the Q4 delivery numbers. With indications that the Model 3 ramp is starting to go well, I believe too many investors won't want to dump the stock just a few weeks before it likely starts to really climb.

We should take into account that Q4 will be another cash burn quarter with likely even the highest we have seen so far. Thats a prediction. We all know what the media will do with that information. So, be prepared for all the shorts claiming that this is another prove of a unsustainable business model and what they said this before disregarding S+X delivery and discrediting 3 delivery numbers and anticipated ramp in Q1.

For the Media the negative messages sells much better versus Tesla is doing well and bottlenecks are solved. Click rates count for them and not the complex truth underneath.

A larger move of the SP is rather happening once large investors realize that cash burn is very soon be reduced significantly and that the 3 is going to have an attractive GM and sells like bread.

Smart investors though don't care when exactly that will happen and use weakness to get in to be positioned well for a nice run in 2018. Most uninformed investors will wait until the sentiment in the media does shift which will happen after large investors went in and good numbers can't be argued. Than its too late.

Hope I am wrong and we see a continuing run from here but won't be surprised if we stay for another 1-2 months in the range between 290 and 389. A break out will make that logic redundant as at that stage the irrational market will take over ....

 

[bdy0627]

We should take into account that Q4 will be another cash burn quarter with likely even the highest we have seen so far. Thats a prediction. We all know what the media will do with that information. So, be prepared for all the shorts claiming that this is another prove of a unsustainable business model and what they said this before disregarding S+X delivery and discrediting 3 delivery numbers and anticipated ramp in Q1.

For the Media the negative messages sells much better versus Tesla is doing well and bottlenecks are solved. Click rates count for them and not the complex truth underneath.

A larger move of the SP is rather happening once large investors realize that cash burn is very soon be reduced significantly and that the 3 is going to have an attractive GM and sells like bread.

Smart investors though don't care when exactly that will happen and use weakness to get in to be positioned well for a nice run in 2018. Most uninformed investors will wait until the sentiment in the media does shift which will happen after large investors went in and good numbers can't be argued. Than its too late.

Hope I am wrong and we see a continuing run from here but won't be surprised if we stay for another 1-2 months in the range between 290 and 389. A break out will make that logic redundant as at that stage the irrational market will take over ....

I bolded what I think is the key point. Certainly, we will see volatility with some sizeable drops along the way. I view it as risky though to wait to add until the Q4 ER thinking the stock price will be lower than it is today. It may go down at that point but it may be coming down from much higher. Disclosure: I'm fully invested. If there is a big drop then I will sell some other stuff to add some more but at this point, I like where I'm at with my TSLA allocation.

 

[dm28997]

We got our Model 3 invite yesterday and ordered with EAP/AP2.5. We reserved on the first day possible and have owned two Teslas but traded one in. We live in N. CA several hours from the Factory. This will be my wife's Tesla but she promises to let me tqke it out once in while.
So happy

 

[neroden]

Last night I had a dream that I fixed my time machine.
I traveled into the future to December 16, 2017.

I was dumpster diving behind a Starbucks in Manhattan.
Found a New York Times with the weekly stock listings.
Looked at a coffee stained listing of Tesla closing at 362 or maybe 367.
The 6 even looked like an 8.

Does the Times still print the stock prices in the Saturday edition ?

No.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

And there you go, record quarter for Tesla in Norway, 2365 and still counting (17Q3 was 2359)

Thanks to Tesla Registration Stats

View attachment 266540

Worth updating:

Source: Tesla Registration Stats

Norway 4Q17 is already 12% higher than the previous record set in 3Q17, adding 100 per day, with two more weeks to go. Bananas.

At this rate, and assuming some slowdown between Christmas and New Year's, Norway 4Q17 deliveries may be 3,800, or 60% QoQ growth.

 

[neroden]

For @Curt Renz :


✔@larry_kudlow


FIFO, the back door capgains on individuals, has been removed from tax bill.

5:46 PM - Dec 13, 2017

This simplifies my life considerably, thank you. I have shares with basis from the 30s to the 300s and if I have to sell this would have been a big pain.

 

[MitchJi]

I'm hopeful for MX & MS deliveries of 27000 Q4, evenly split.

Great to see a lot more M3 sighting proving production is ramping. With all the talk here on TMC of production numbers, it will mean very little to mass media and Mr.Market. They will jump on the delivery numbers which will disappoint and give the bears reason to be, well...bears. Ironic that Tesla is the only auto manufacturer that only counts final deliveries instead of production when reporting their numbers. With only a week to go before Christmas holidays, I'm hopeful for M3 deliveries of 1500 Q4.
Daniel

For Q4 M3 deliveries are completely irrelevant.

The only thing that counts is the production numbers. Tesla has promised to include the production numbers when they report the numbers in the first three days of January.

 

[Manton]

Has the market got too excited this week? 10% increase on some good news but nothing solid. Really thinking it'll drop 5% this coming week. Tempted to sell Monday. Thoughts?

 

[Lessmog]

Has the market got too excited this week? 10% increase on some good news but nothing solid. Really thinking it'll drop 5% this coming week. Tempted to sell Monday. Thoughts?

Do your own thing. Best advice I can give. Taking it myself. Good luck.

 

[BornToFly]

Has the market got too excited this week? 10% increase on some good news but nothing solid. Really thinking it'll drop 5% this coming week. Tempted to sell Monday. Thoughts?

I never do that. With high income taxes on anything I sell, that I've held for less than a year, there has to be a really big drop for a sell and then lower re-entry to be profitable. I sell puts 10-20% below the currently SP level, or just add stock/calls after a drop to increase my total portfolio. I could be wrong, but with the Model 3 ramp about to take off, I think a SP over 400 in the beginning of April is likely.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Has the market got too excited this week? 10% increase on some good news but nothing solid. Really thinking it'll drop 5% this coming week. Tempted to sell Monday. Thoughts?

Exactly my thoughts. I actually liquidated all my calls and 3/4ths of my stock near the close on Friday and will liquidate the remainder at the open on Monday

 

[Curt Renz]

Has the market got too excited this week? 10% increase on some good news but nothing solid. Really thinking it'll drop 5% this coming week. Tempted to sell Monday. Thoughts?

I bought my first Tesla shares and joined TMC nearly five years ago. I've seen essentially the same question repeated here countless times, including early 2013. I have repeatedly suggested to shareholders that they keep holding until money is needed for some specific purpose. I sold a third of my Tesla shares 17 months ago to pay cash for a new home. Then 13 months ago I bought more Tesla shares, and now own more than I ever did. But you must decide on your own how to do what seems most suited for your comfort zone.