2017 P100D X and 2018 P100D S - does battery day make them obsolete?

[Drkmttr]

Basically thinking about selling either or both of these cars while they still hold some value before battery day erases significant value from current and last gen Tesla’s.

I really think that right after battery day the new x and s will probably start getting shipped with new batteries and we definitely won’t be able to replace existing battery packs with new ones so what’s the point in keeping it when we can sell now for more than we can sell on a few months?

 

[ucmndd]

Do they still hold a charge and drive? If so, how
could they be obsolete?

At any rate, you’ve already taken a bath on the cars you own. As you’ve undoubtedly noticed, the market for rich peoples’ playthings has basically dried up for the time being, and depreciation on luxury goods and emerging technology is devastatingly punishing even in the best of times.

In short, there is no scenario where you dump your current cars now to come out ahead by buying a new one in some number of months.

Finally, I think the idea that “right after battery day” they’ll be shipping the new batteries is a complete pipe dream, unless Tesla has secretly constructed billions of dollars of new battery manufacturing lines in secret factories without anybody noticing or spilling the beans.

 

[Drkmttr]

Well I guess let me be more pointed...


When the model 3 came out with its new tech and spilling into the y obviously the model c and s owners got left out of:

1. Wide screen for infotainment (small gripe but would rather Netflix on bigger screen)
2. Speed of charging (Before corona completed a trip from Ontario to Florida and watched all the model 3’s charge faster and that sucked
3. Seems like prices are going to go down within a year or at least range/battery will significantly improve in the vehicles and definitely want to have longer range
4. Can easily sell the s and x now for similar prices and get a 3 and y and still come out on top for resale later as opposed to significant declines to come in value of my older s and x

 

[Drkmttr]

And - China is already going to be or using the new battery tech in the model 3’s and it’s just a bit of time until they show up here (North America) in the whole lineup

 

[ucmndd]

Sounds like you’re looking for an excuse to sell your cars and buy new ones.

If you want to, then by all means, go for it. But don’t try to fool yourself or anyone else into thinking it makes financial sense.

 

[dannycamps]

1. Wide screen for infotainment (small gripe but would rather Netflix on bigger screen)
2. Speed of charging (Before corona completed a trip from Ontario to Florida and watched all the model 3’s charge faster and that sucked
3. Seems like prices are going to go down within a year or at least range/battery will significantly improve in the vehicles and definitely want to have longer range
4. Can easily sell the s and x now for similar prices and get a 3 and y and still come out on top for resale later as opposed to significant declines to come in value of my older s and x

1. This is a personal preference and I hardly see it as an upgrade/enhancement. I prefer the two screen layout in the S/X but purely a subjective opinion.

2. Only if you were witnessing charging taking place on a V3 supercharger in the best of circumstances. On V1 and V2, Model 3, S, X are all limited by the max speed of the supercharger (or throttling for older S packs).

3. While Teslas do appear to hold value a little better than other cars, they are still subject to depreciation that begins the moment you drive off the lot.

4. Probably true but I (again - personal choice) would not view a 3 or a Y as an upgrade to an S or X respectively.

 

[Drkmttr]

Well, it’s a fact that my value on the x and s keeps dropping by ridiculously high numbers month to month and it’s a fact that 3s and Ys will hold their value better due to newer tech so I’m really not understanding your logic here bud nor am I trying to sell my cars just thinking longer term

if you don’t see the logic then please enlighten me as to why it’s better to keep these cars

trying not to subscribe to the sink cost fallacy and be real

 

[Drkmttr]

meant "sunk cost fallacy"

 

[ucmndd]

it’s a fact that 3s and Ys will hold their value better due to newer tech

This is an interesting fact. What makes you think the current 3/Y is going to hold up any better 3 years from now given the pace of innovation? What data do you have to suggest this is holding true now?

Like I said, you do you. Get a 3/Y if that’s your thing. You came to a Tesla forum and registered an account to list the reasons why you think you should buy new Teslas. Seems like you might be looking for a specific answer.

As for me, I’ve found making decisions with today’s money on something Tesla is rumored or promised to do in the future is a losing proposition every time.

Unless you’re buying the stock - apparently that shiz is invincible.

 

[dannycamps]

it’s a fact that 3s and Ys will hold their value better due to newer tech

There is no guarantee of this. I don't subscribe to Elon's belief that these cars will one day appreciate in value (I could always be wrong). Newer technology is coming out all the time rendering things more obsolete. That in and of itself would impact value far less than condition, mileage, etc...

Case in point: right now 2017 P100D Xs are selling between $78.6k and $92.3k (source: EV-CPO). The bulk of the depreciation happened in the first year of ownership. Can you sell your X right now for $78k and buy a performance Y for $62k? Sure but without a crystal ball, there is no saying what that Y will be worth in three years. There is also no saying that you would buy a Y and then two months later, Tesla finds some real battery tech breakthrough that changes the game completely.

 

[Drkmttr]

I'm definitely ALL IN when it comes to Tesla, don't think that i'm not. Had a 2017 S 90D, got the 2017 X P model after that then the 2018 S P model when I trade my 90D in.

And, I have a powerwall on the way, like being installed in a month.

And have two cybertrucks on order.

Wife even says if I spent all this cash on tesla stock.......

Well, I think in a few months, probably fall/winter 2020, new battery tech is going to emerge in the S/X/3/Y (the new cells) and those cells are end game for Elon due to the million mile achievement and lifespan of the batteries themselves, etc. Those batteries will be the ones to have for quite some time and earlier generation Tesla's with older chemistry is going to drop in value so maybe its best to sell, wait a few months, then get the new battery tech until I can get my cybertrucks.

Meh.

Even have FSD on both cars.

Oh well. Just hate paying for the monthly payments when the pace of innovation is so fast and my wallet just can't keep up.

Been in the Tesla game long enough to know that a month later you will be obsolete but I really think that if the battery chemistry is as big a deal as Elon is touting then what i've said is true about earlier models losing their value even more. Of course, to the less discerning buyer of a used Tesla maybe they won't even realize that.

Honestly would just love it if we could only upgrade our batteries. That would make this entire threat moot, but unfortunately cannot.

 

[VaztheDad]

Basically thinking about selling either or both of these cars while they still hold some value before battery day erases significant value from current and last gen Tesla’s.

Battery Day, Cutting edge tech, most current announcements... these are all things WE as enthusiasts adore. The vast majority of Tesla owners haven't a clue about any of this, nor care. In their mind, they have shifted to electric and are doing what is right for them. Because of that the vast majority of owners (and buyers) are not going to impact the cars value.

Nerds (like myself) will strongly prefer the newest tech, but I'm succumb to accepting I'm in a vast minority.

 

[Jabbahop]

Well something big has to happen on the S/X by the time the cybertruck tri-motor comes out with a 500+ mile range @ $70K

 

[2101Guy]

But based on history of Elon's promises of something compared to the date where it actually arrives...how soon do you really think new batteries are going to be installed into cars?

 

[viper2ko]

They are already reporting model 3 and Y have dual way on board chargers. I think that means for future implications of using your tesla off the grid and to store energy.

 

[2101Guy]

As far as depreciation? That really cant be a primary concern if one is buying new (any vehicle), and why I personally only buy 2-3 years old. If one buys new (repeatedly), then he/she accepts upfront, that they are going to incur serious depreciation hits on that spend.

 

[larmor]

And - China is already going to be or using the new battery tech in the model 3’s and it’s just a bit of time until they show up here (North America) in the whole lineup

I thought the longer range MIC model 3s were just a different calculation for mileage not a newer battery tech (that's what many TMC posters have said)....

 

[SilverString]

Basically thinking about selling either or both of these cars while they still hold some value before battery day erases significant value from current and last gen Tesla’s.

I really think that right after battery day the new x and s will probably start getting shipped with new batteries and we definitely won’t be able to replace existing battery packs with new ones so what’s the point in keeping it when we can sell now for more than we can sell on a few months?

If this is true, where do you think the tipping point is in terms of range? Early 2019 MS LR was 335.

 

[geoffmanley]

If this is true, where do you think the tipping point is in terms of range? Early 2019 MS LR was 335.

500 miles.

 

[EVortex]

I have found it best not to agonize over future possible upgrades and just enjoy my car. Tesla’s continuous improvement approach does provide ongoing feature upgrades we can enjoy through OTA, but not as much when hardware is involved. Point is, there will always be something newer and better, so it’s easy to get caught up in comparing what you currently have to the latest and greatest. That can cause disappointment if you let it get to you, so I keep reminding myself what an awesome car I have and then go drive it. Happiness!