I've only just got a RN from business lease company - delivery now likely close to mid-December. M3P (white/black) has been confirmed/changed/fabricated as being on the Grand Aurora after being ordered 29th Sept - I previously understood from Tesla that it was on TA. My colleague has cancelled his order placed this week, he can't deal with the uncertainty and listening to me rant that Tesla haven't added the referral code provided to them!
Tesla bloke did did say that any existing orders cancelled would have the car automatically reassigned and you may get earlier delivery but it almost never happens. And indicated that the next update (text) is likely to come at or around Panama Canal so should be very soon.