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2021 Shipping Movements

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HORIZON LEADER is steadily making her way up the English Channel at 15kts. She is currently in the process of picking up a ‘Brixham’ pilot from off Cherbourg who will stay with her during her time in European waters.
She will dock in Zeebrugge at 0700Z tomorrow.

Screenshot 2021-02-15 at 11.57.59.png


GLOVIS CENTURY This ship is loaded with the first MIC RHD Model 3s for UK and Ireland. I also believe this will be the only shipment that will arrive in the UK this quarter.
She is making her way northwards 50NM off the coast of Portugal and is currently abeam Porto. The Southampton port schedule has delayed her arrival to the Western Docks a couple of hours to 0530 on Wednesday.

Century Med prog.png


GRAND RUBY
is now about 500nm NE of Puerto Rico on a steady heading of 070. The chart shows that by adopting this rhumb line track across the Atlantic, although longer than the great circle track shown in blue, it will keep her clear of the worst of the Atlantic weather. At the moment it looks like she should be fine on this course weatherwise until at least Friday. Interestingly, every ‘Tesla’ ship in Q1 has so far wisely decided not to follow the great circle track - a great improvement on last year when several vessels appeared to just blindly ‘follow the needle’ into some horrendous weather.
Her ETA for Zeebrugge is 0600Z on 24 Feb.

Grand Ruby Atlantic.png


The horrid GLOVIS COMPANION is currently heading up the Gulf of Panama and will arrive off the entrance to the canal in about 4 hours time.
A couple of points need to be made about this. Firstly she is very early, originally she was due to arrive this evening but her ETA has been brought forward 9 hours. Secondly, she is still maintaining 16 kts, which would suggest that although she won’t achieve her 12:30 ETA she is still aiming to arrive much earlier than originally scheduled. Now normally I would expect her to drop anchor off the entrance and commence her canal transit in the small hours of tomorrow morning, however in view of the foregoing she may be intending to latch on to a northbound wave this evening. It’s unusual, but certainly worth keeping an eye on. I will post some more information on the canal and the webcam links etc later today.

’Sink the Glovis Companion!” A fun competition with an abundance of virtual prizes.
Decide which square to lay your minefield. You can have 3 entries! A direct hit is required to win. Enter HERE.
The competition will close as soon as she enters the Panama Canal and so you have less than 24 hours to enter - possibly even less than 12 hrs! Remember for this competition only, you can enter 3 times.

Glov Comp Pac Prog.png


LAKE GENEVA is making steady progress down the Pacific coast of Mexico towards Panama at 16kts.
I estimate she will arrive off Panama on 21 Feb and transit the canal on the 22 Feb. The weather for her voyage looks fine albeit a little choppy most of the way to Panama. Her estimate for Zeebrugge is 1900Z on 6 Mar.

Enter the LAKE GENEVA competition HERE.

Geneva Pac.png


GLOVIS SIRIUS remains alongside at Tacoma. According to the Tacoma port schedule she should have departed yesterday evening. Her AIS is still stating an ETA for Pier 80 of midnight local on Wednesday. She needs to be on her way pretty soon if she is to keep to that timeline. The San Francisco port schedule however is not expecting her to turn up until Friday.
She will be the biggest ship of Q1 and the last ship of Q1 to Europe from Pier 80.
I have pencilled her in to arrive in Zeebrugge around 15 Mar.
 
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GLOVIS COMPANION is presently arriving at the entrance to the Panama Canal and normally I would expect her to anchor this evening just off the entrance to the canal and then commence her transit in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Since she has arrived so early I wonder whether she intends to transit the canal later today.
She will have paid a fee to jump the queue and so I am pretty confident she won't be waiting long.
The first indication of something happening will be the arrival alongside her of a canal pilot. He will board the ship and she will then head up towards the first set of locks, the Miraflores locks. This is the first of a set of two locks which will lift the ship a total of 54ft. After Miraflores the ship will motor the short distance to the second set of locks, the Pedro Miguel Locks which will lift the ship the final 31ft. The ship will now be level with Gatun lake and she can make her way to the final set of locks, the Gatun locks which will then lower the ship 85ft to the Caribbean in 3 stages.

The Panama Canal provides a shortcut for shipping travelling from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean and vice-versa. Instead of having to route to the south of South America and then back up, a distance of about 10,000 nm the canal offers a mere 51 mile transit. This comes at a big (well into 6 figures USD) price, calculated by a complicated formula, designed to maximise revenue to the canal operators. The original canal opened in 1914 and was an immediate success. In the first year it handled about 1000 ships and by 2008 it was handling nearly 15,000. These figures alone don’t tell the whole story because ships were getting bigger and bigger and one of the limits to the size of ships being built was the size of the locks in the Panama Canal. Ships that were built to fit (just) into the locks were described as Panamax ships. That is why so many cruise ships, container ships and car carriers are 32.3m wide and have a draft of under 12.6m.

The expansion of global trade and the increase in shipping meant that the canal was becoming a bottleneck with frequent delays and queues of ships waiting to transit. Fees for queue jumping became ever more expensive and ever more necessary to avoid delays. Alternatives to the canal were seriously being considered eg the NW passage and a number of alternative canal routes that avoided Panama completely. Panama relies on the income from the canal and could not afford for any of the alternatives plans to be viable and so the plan for the expansion to the existing canal system was commenced in 2007 and completed in 2016. This introduced two new sets of locks built parallel to the existing locks. Significantly, they now allow ships up to 366m long, 49m wide and with a draft of up to 15m to transit the canal. The new locks are of a modern design which use less water and are regarded as safer and more reliable too.

So a Panamax ship like GLOVIS COMPANION will use the old locks - Miraflores, Pedro Miguel and Gatun locks to transit whereas bigger ships like GLOVIS SIRIUS have to use the new locks at Cocoli and Agua Clara.

The canal is big business and so is generally a pretty slick operation entirely dependent on how much you have paid. The Tesla ships are normally booked in several weeks in advance and are given a pretty high priority. Delays of more than 24 hours are rare and normally we can expect the ships to start their northbound transit in the small hours of the morning and be in the Caribbean around 8 hours later.

There are webcams at the locks so you can watch the ships going through. The link to the webcams are here There are plenty of youtube videos and documentaries on the canal, its operation and construction, many of which are very good.

For GLOVIS COMPANION, I am unsure of when to expect her transit. I will be keeping an eye on her in case she does manage to start her transit later today. If she waits until tomorrow I would expect her to be at Miraflores around 6-7 am UK time tomorrow. By the time she reaches Gatun locks it will be daylight. I expect her to be in the Caribbean shortly after 3pm UK time.
cfabbfa9-7989-4d9f-82b9-fdbe12efee8a-png.582713


Thanks to @Mister J for providing the above graphic.
 
GLOVIS CENTURY This ship is loaded with the first MIC RHD Model 3s for UK and Ireland. I also believe this will be the only shipment that will arrive in the UK this quarter.
She is making her way northwards 50NM off the coast of Portugal and is currently abeam Porto. The Southampton port schedule has delayed her arrival to the Western Docks a couple of hours to 0530 on Wednesday.

Out of interest, how long after docking in Southampton do shipments normally take to arrive in Ireland? Delivery dates in Ireland start on March 4th so 15 days after docking in Southampton... Seems quite long. Iget the reason for not delivering cars in the UK until March 1st because of licence plate change... But in Ireland the plates change on 1st Jan and 1st July so don't have same restriction
 
Out of interest, how long after docking in Southampton do shipments normally take to arrive in Ireland? Delivery dates in Ireland start on March 4th so 15 days after docking in Southampton... Seems quite long. Iget the reason for not delivering cars in the UK until March 1st because of licence plate change... But in Ireland the plates change on 1st Jan and 1st July so don't have same restriction
I have no idea of how the cars were shipped to Ireland before Brexit and I have no idea how they will be shipped now. It would be good to know - your friendly Tesla contact may well know the answer and may well reveal it during pillow talk. Good luck Sean!
 
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I have no idea of how the cars were shipped to Ireland before Brexit and I have no idea how they will be shipped now. It would be good to know - your friendly Tesla contact may well know the answer and may well reveal it during pillow talk. Good luck Sean!
Just had Tesla phone me. They wanted info re: my part exchange. The woman I spoke to said my was in arriving on March 4th and will be ready for March6th, either she really doesn't know much, or another boat is heading over from Shanghai
 
Just had Tesla phone me. They wanted info re: my part exchange. The woman I spoke to said my was in arriving on March 4th and will be ready for March6th, either she really doesn't know much, or another boat is heading over from Shanghai
Well that's interesting.
That timing fits with MORNING CAPO. Her departure from Shanghai ties in with a limited RHD production run too. (I thought it was for AUSNZ only)
The only problem is that she's not heading for Southampton unless her schedule has been changed.
We'll have to wait until she is through the Suez Canal next Monday/Tuesday to find out where she is heading, but MORNING CAPO may be back in the frame.
Thanks for posting the information.

UPDATE: I've just checked her schedule and there is no change, she's due in Zeebrugge on 6 Mar.
 
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Hi Mr Miserable

I admire your work! Just ordered my Model 3 about two weeks ago and today the sales guy sent me a tracking link to let me know where my car was. It's on the LAKE GENEVA and on its way down to the panama canal. Thanks for all the information you've been posting. Never been interested in sea freight at all, but of course now I need to know all about it ;)

Cheers
 
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Well that's interesting.
That timing fits with MORNING CAPO. Her departure from Shanghai ties in with a limited RHD production run too. (I thought it was for AUSNZ only)
The only problem is that she's not heading for Southampton unless her schedule has been changed.
We'll have to wait until she is through the Suez Canal next Monday/Tuesday to find out where she is heading, but MORNING CAPO may be back in the frame.
Thanks for posting the information.

UPDATE: I've just checked her schedule and there is no change, she's due in Zeebrugge on 6 Mar.
I then spoke to a different advisor who said that the computers may not show if they have departed or not. They also confirmed the long range will have a 74kw LG lithium phosphate battery..
 
LFP are the new batteries, which seems to go against everything i've read so far saying the long range will not have them.

Guess we won't know till they arrive. But there are pros and cons to both batteries so it is what it is.
Tesla battery supplier LG Chem shares jump 10% on upbeat outlook

From the article:

LG Chem said its batteries have an edge over the cheaper, LFP batteries from Chinese rival and Tesla supplier CATL, saying the latter’s lower energy density makes it difficult to be used for longer-range, large cars.

“The LFP batteries can be used in relatively short-range cars which are sensitive to prices... We believe that our nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries can be mainstream globally,” said Chang Seung-se, senior vice president at LG Chem, referring to its nickel-based batteries.
 
Tesla battery supplier LG Chem shares jump 10% on upbeat outlook

From the article:

LG Chem said its batteries have an edge over the cheaper, LFP batteries from Chinese rival and Tesla supplier CATL, saying the latter’s lower energy density makes it difficult to be used for longer-range, large cars.

“The LFP batteries can be used in relatively short-range cars which are sensitive to prices... We believe that our nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries can be mainstream globally,” said Chang Seung-se, senior vice president at LG Chem, referring to its nickel-based batteries.

So then the Tesla rep is dead wrong? I don't get it...
 
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