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2021 Shipping Movements

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Mr. M - some in France have had their VINs changed and the Tesla folks letting them know that the boat that was carrying those cars are now routed to Israel and they got a new VIN with cars on a different ship later in March. Any thoughts on this?

The diverted ship is not likely to be GRAND RUBY which is already in the Bay of Biscay. It's not likely to be GLOVIS SIRIUS either because she wouldn't make it to Ashdod in time and she's too big.
LAKE GENEVA has just revised her ETA for Zeebrugge. She, as expected has amended it to 7 Mar. Therefore I think we can rule her out.
That leaves GLOVIS COMPANION and VIKING BRAVERY.
If GLOVIS COMPANION maintains her present course she would end up at the Straits of Gibraltar however she hasn't changed her AIS destination yet. Is her present course to avoid Atlantic weather or one to a new destination?
VIKING BRAVERY isn't due to depart New Jersey until 4 Mar and so could quite easily do the 14 day voyage to Ashdod.

So my thoughts are that, if this rumour is true (and nothing else suggests it is yet) then VIKING BRAVERY is most likely unless GLOVIS COMPANION is just being slow in updating her AIS destination.

Let's keep an eye on GLOVIS COMPANION.
 
How are you able to check that she's resumed her voyage to Suez? Marine Traffic still shows destination as Hamburg even though she seems to be sailing southbound on the map

I have her heading 181 at 16.7 kts from my sateliite feed. MarineTraffic does not update voyage data at the same rate as position data. Take a look at Vesselfinder.com - it's more accurate.
 
LAKE GENEVA is presently arriving at the entrance to the Panama Canal and I expect her to anchor this evening just off the entrance to the canal and then commence her transit in the early hours of tomorrow morning.
She will have paid a fee to jump the queue and so I am pretty confident she won't be waiting long.
The first indication of something happening will be the arrival alongside her of a canal pilot. He will board the ship and she will then head up towards the first set of locks, the Miraflores locks. This is the first of a set of two locks which will lift the ship a total of 54ft. After Miraflores the ship will motor the short distance to the second set of locks, the Pedro Miguel Locks which will lift the ship the final 31ft. The ship will now be level with Gatun lake and she can make her way to the final set of locks, the Gatun locks which will then lower the ship 85ft to the Caribbean in 3 stages.

The Panama Canal provides a shortcut for shipping travelling from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean and vice-versa. Instead of having to route to the south of South America and then back up, a distance of about 10,000 nm the canal offers a mere 51 mile transit. This comes at a big (well into 6 figures USD) price, calculated by a complicated formula, designed to maximise revenue to the canal operators. The original canal opened in 1914 and was an immediate success. In the first year it handled about 1000 ships and by 2008 it was handling nearly 15,000. These figures alone don’t tell the whole story because ships were getting bigger and bigger and one of the limits to the size of ships being built was the size of the locks in the Panama Canal. Ships that were built to fit (just) into the locks were described as Panamax ships. That is why so many cruise ships, container ships and car carriers are 32.3m wide and have a draft of under 12.6m.

The expansion of global trade and the increase in shipping meant that the canal was becoming a bottleneck with frequent delays and queues of ships waiting to transit. Fees for queue jumping became ever more expensive and ever more necessary to avoid delays. Alternatives to the canal were seriously being considered eg the NW passage and a number of alternative canal routes that avoided Panama completely. Panama relies on the income from the canal and could not afford for any of the alternatives plans to be viable and so the plan for the expansion to the existing canal system was commenced in 2007 and completed in 2016. This introduced two new sets of locks built parallel to the existing locks. Significantly, they now allow ships up to 366m long, 49m wide and with a draft of up to 15m to transit the canal. The new locks are of a modern design which use less water and are regarded as safer and more reliable too.

So a Panamax ship like LAKE GENEVA will use the old locks - Miraflores, Pedro Miguel and Gatun locks to transit whereas bigger ships like GLOVIS SIRIUS have to use the new locks at Cocoli and Agua Clara.

The canal is big business and so is generally a pretty slick operation entirely dependent on how much you have paid. The Tesla ships are normally booked in several weeks in advance and are given a pretty high priority. Delays of more than 24 hours are rare and normally we can expect the ships to start their northbound transit in the small hours of the morning and be in the Caribbean around 8 hours later.

There are webcams at the locks so you can watch the ships going through. The link to the webcams are here There are plenty of youtube videos and documentaries on the canal, its operation and construction, many of which are very good.

For LAKE GENEVA, I am unsure of when to expect her transit. I will be keeping an eye on her in case she does manage to start her transit later today. If she waits until tomorrow I would expect her to be at Miraflores around 6-7 am UK time tomorrow. By the time she reaches Gatun locks it will be daylight. I expect her to be in the Caribbean shortly after 3pm UK time.
cfabbfa9-7989-4d9f-82b9-fdbe12efee8a-png.582713


Thanks to @Mister J for providing the above graphic.
 
Now Closed

GLOVIS COMPANION Quickfire Competition.
We didn't have a direct hit in our regular competition and so I though we should have a bonus round for this ship.
Once again you get 3 attempts.
All you have to do is predict where the GLOVIS COMPANION will be at Midday UTC on Wednesday 24 Feb 21.
The competition will close for new entries at 11am on Tuesday 23 Feb 21.
There is no prize! It's just a bit of fun.
In the event of a tie, the person who chose the closest minor square first will be the winner.
Click HERE to enter!

companion-major-squares-png.638843


The red X on the chart above shows the position of GLOVIS COMPANION at midday 22 Feb 21.
CLICK HERE TO ENTER
Competition closes at 11am.
Good luck!

UPDATE : Now closed.
 

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GRAND RUBY endured a rough night in the Bay of Biscay. She is still holding to the west of the main shipping lanes about 80NM south of Land’s End and is maintaining just over 16kts despite the rough seas and 35kt winds (headwind last night, tailwind this morning). Quite why she is going so fast when her ETA for Zeebrugge remains midday on Thursday is a mystery. One must assume that she has an earlier arrival slot arranged that she is trying to meet (Brixham pilot possibly). The Zeebrugge port schedule however appears to disagree and has delayed her arrival a couple of hours to 1500 on Thursday! Anyway she is now visible on marinetraffic without the need of a satellite subscription, which is nice.

Grand Ruby Atlantic.png


The errant polluter GLOVIS COMPANION is maintaining her course to pass to the east of the Azores. She has slowed to just under 16kts in the rough seas and so I think her ETA will need revising. Her ETA for Zeebrugge remains 2100Z on 27 Feb but I fully expect this to slip right. Zeebrugge are now expecting her at 0100 on Sunday.

Glovis Companion Atlantic Progress.png


MORNING CAPO was always suspected to be carrying RHD Model 3s on board but now she has declared her destination to be Southampton there is little doubt that she is.
She is currently exiting the Suez canal at Port Said with an ETA of 3 Mar for Southampton. There are no weather concerns for her Mediterranean transit.

CAPO MED Progress .png


LAKE GENEVA is currently in transit of the Panama Canal and doesn’t appear to be experiencing any delays.
The weather in the Caribbean looks unusually choppy for the time of the year but nothing that will bother a ship of this size. The Atlantic weather forecast looks like a crossing with an easterly bias is required. All the ships so far this quarter have entered the Atlantic via the Mona Passage and not attempted a great circle track, preferring a longer track through the eastern Atlantic. I don’t see any reason why LAKE GENEVA should deviate from that.
As expected, yesterday evening she revised her ETA for Zeebrugge to 1000Z on 7 Mar.

GLOVIS SIRIUS Her departure has been delayed a couple of hours until 2pm (UK time). Reason unknown.
She will be the biggest ship of Q1 and the last ship of Q1 to Europe from Pier 80.
Her ETA for Balboa is 3 Mar and so I have pencilled her in to arrive in Zeebrugge around 15 Mar.

GRAND MARK will now stay at Benicia until around this time tomorrow before coming alongside Pier 80. Her cargo has not yet arrived at Pier 80. She won’t be staying long and may depart, possibly to Shanghai, as early as tomorrow evening.

VIKING BRAVERY will depart from New Jersey on 4 Mar bound for Zeebrugge. This continues the custom for Tesla to squeeze an extra boatload to Europe by sending the cars overland by train to New Jersey and then loading them on a ship from there. I estimate that she will arrive in Zeebrugge around 12 Mar which will be ahead of GLOVIS SIRIUS.
 
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