2022 Shipping Movements

[garreth64]

I have the same delivery date. I’m sorry guys we’re all going to have to accept that it is highly unlikely our cars will be here in May. I think we’ll be lucky to get a delivery in June.

You are probably correct, or even August as per Mr Miserable's comment.

I think in order of least to most probable the scenarios are:

Chinooks personally deliver cars with a current May/June EDD.
Berlin starts producing RHD models in the next month for May/June Deliveries.
Production starts up again for RHD in Shanghai in the next few weeks in time for end of Q2 deliveries.
There are some already built RHD cars at Shanghai and MR M identifies a ship in the next few weeks that would be a candidate.
Shanghai restarts RHD production again May/June for Q3 deliveries probably August.

 

[bellasmummy]

May I ask what you have all ordered including colour and wheels?

MY grey,black,20

 

[phoenixcat]

May I ask what you have all ordered including colour and wheels?

OD 10th March MY/MSM/19”

 

[PeteMY]

I'm a MY Black/Black/19" with EDD of May 13 - June 7

Still can't understand how it is possible - expecting an adjustment in the near future...

 

[PeteMY]

Order date 28/2/22 FWIW

 

[Zeit93]

Interesting most Y orders are clinging on to this early may to early June window

Either Tesla has an ace up their sleeves, or they're just telling porkies

 

[t0ne]

Same for me, EDD still showing as May 11 to June 3, MY blue, black, 20” ordered 26th March

 

[MikeyM]

OD 28/03/22
MY MSM 19"
EDD 15/07/22

 

[RPA335]

You aren’t going to believe this! Half an hour ago, guess who came all the way from Boca Chica to hand over the keys and give the car a scratchy-manky-rag wipe over for me.

 

[stephenclutton]

Interesting most Y orders are clinging on to this early may to early June window

Either Tesla has an ace up their sleeves, or they're just telling porkies

I just think they do a once a week update and roll on the next set of delivery dates based on the feasibility of delivering in the current active delivery window. That way they impact the fewest customers each time.
Expecting my window, starting 14th May, to shift next weekend.

 

[Loo Tam]

According to Chinese media, there was 48hrs lockdown in Shanghai around 18 Mar, then reopened until 28 Mar. If the last ship from GF Shanghai was 5th Mar, then it means GF Shanghai managed to produce around 30,000 cars. Does this mean there are already enough MY LRs for May delivery but the problem is the lockdown blocks the transportation from the factory to the port and loading to a ship? If this is true, then media also says the city would probably be unlocked in mid May, so Swedish buyers would receive their cars in second half June if they are prioritized, right?

 

[Terry F]

According to Chinese media, there was 48hrs lockdown in Shanghai around 18 Mar, then reopened until 28 Mar. If the last ship from GF Shanghai was 5th Mar, then it means GF Shanghai managed to produce around 30,000 cars. Does this mean there are already enough MY LRs for May delivery but the problem is the lockdown blocks the transportation from the factory to the port and loading to a ship? If this is true, then media also says the city would probably be unlocked in mid May, so Swedish buyers would receive their cars in second half June if they are prioritized, right?

Sorry to say that there is likely no large pool of cars just waiting for the lockdown to lift. Figures released by the CPCA on 11 April state that GF Shanghai produced 55,642 cars in March, 32,809 Model Y and 22,653 Model 3. This is roughly the same amount built in February, in theory March has 3 extra days but also the short lockdown mentioned above and closure from 28th, so this figure makes sense. March sales in China were 65,754 plus just 60 cars were exported outside China so this drew down over 10,350 cars from the end of February stock figure and so would have left very little stock as at the end of March - probably the lowest since GF Shanghai opened as Tesla like to end each quarter with around 3-4 days stock and this could be lower than that. As GF Shanghai closed on 28 March that must be where things remain today, so unfortunately there is likely no significant 'pool' of M3 and MY just waiting to be loaded onto a ship. I suspect it will take a few days of full production once GF Shanghai re-opens to build up enough fresh stock to fill a ship for UK/EU buyers. I have no idea how quickly they can ramp up production after a stoppage, but as full production builds over 2,000 cars per day (M3+MY) then just 2 or 3 days production could fill a ship and more! Here's hoping Tesla can get Shanghai back to work soon.

 

[Adid]

Yesterday I saw strange thing on my Tesla Account - Firstly EDD disappear completely and today morning it is back May. So it seems like someone is changing something.

In February I had similar situation - Firstly EDD was set to May than disappear and after about one week - VIN appears in source code so cross fingers (but in February there was no lockdown)

 

[RPA335]

I’m curious. Of those that have retained a May/June EDD. How are you purchasing your Tesla?

Outright/Finance or Lease?

Me - Purchase/PCP

 

[M3P75]

I’m curious. Of those that have retained a May/June EDD. How are you purchasing your Tesla?

Outright/Finance or Lease?

Me - Purchase/PCP

Cash purchase for me

 

[Andyb5]

I’m curious. Of those that have retained a May/June EDD. How are you purchasing your Tesla?

Outright/Finance or Lease?

Me - Purchase/PCP

For me it's a PCP with a tesla trade in as well.

 

[RPA335]

Obviously, my thinking is, if you have 200 cars to supply. Maybe you supply them to the punters who will provide you with the best cash flow. Those with the cash in their hand rather than lease.

Straws

Grasping.

Sorry to the leasers.

 

[RPA335]

My next question, slightly conspiracy theorist, to those in the know who have an understanding of the history of lockdowns in China.

Since the start of the Covid pandemic is this the strictest and longest lasting lockdown that there has been since the world began to open back up again?

More strict than before the war in Ukraine started?

 

[Adid]

I’m curious. Of those that have retained a May/June EDD. How are you purchasing your Tesla?

Outright/Finance or Lease?

Me - Purchase/PCP

For me it is cash

 

[Morak]

Cash + trade in (MY/MSM/19") - May 13 to June 8 but I'm not holding my breath!