300+ Mile Model 3?

[MassModel3]

Bear in mind that a supercharger currently will add roughly 50% charge to a battery in 20 minutes. The rest of the charge takes more than twice that long due to tapering. A larger battery (400 miles) means that a SC stop can add 200 miles to your battery in 20 minutes and that would accommodate the quick stop and maximum recharge. With smaller batteries, you'd have to sit longer (maybe lots longer) to get that 200 miles added to the battery. Point is that even if you can't or wouldn't drive 400 miles straight, a 400 mile battery will seriously improve your long distance commute times even if you do stop to charge frequently.

oh man... model 3 built in CHINA??? ....:cursing:

As I understand it, the Model S's going to Europe are not fully assembled prior to shipment. The parts all get shipped, but they go to a European factory for final assembly. This is a way of saving on import taxes. I would think the China factory would be the same thing, simply performing final assembly locally. Have no fear -- there's no way you're going to be buying a Model 3 that was built in China.

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I believe that Tesla will make improvements in aerodynamics, weight, efficiency in the inverter, motor and HVAC and in many other areas so 300mi range is very likely.

Didn't JB Straubel say the Model 3 will have 300 miles when he recently spoke in Nevada (a couple weeks ago)? Maybe I'm hallucinating (again), but I think he did.

 

[tga]

Bear in mind that a supercharger currently will add roughly 50% charge to a battery in 20 minutes. The rest of the charge takes more than twice that long due to tapering. A larger battery (400 miles) means that a SC stop can add 200 miles to your battery in 20 minutes and that would accommodate the quick stop and maximum recharge. With smaller batteries, you'd have to sit longer (maybe lots longer) to get that 200 miles added to the battery. Point is that even if you can't or wouldn't drive 400 miles straight, a 400 mile battery will seriously improve your long distance commute times even if you do stop to charge frequently.

Not necessarily. If the battery is too big, then the limiting factor becomes the capacity of the SC. If the battery is big enough to take the full output (without taper) for 20 minutes, you'll get 135 kW / (60/20) = 45kWh max.

Let's assume the 3 has the same wh/mile as the S. In that case, a 400 mile car would have an 85*(400/265) kWh, or 128kWh. In 20 minutes of charging, the most you could get is (45/128)%, or 35%, or 140 miles. But a 200kWh battery won't charge any faster - you're still capped at 45kWh/140 miles in 20 min on a 135kW SC.

Have no fear -- there's no way you're going to be buying a Model 3 that was built in China.

I did have that initial panic - no way I would buy a 3 made in China. But building cars in their local market makes sense.

 

[Lonnie123]

No. Well, potentially you _could_ have a huge battery, but there's an issue of weight, size and cost-effectiveness.
Assuming $100/kWh with the same charging speed, and 50% better volumetric and gravimetric densities of an S battery, how many kWh would you want? (Could be a poll ...)
Remember that more battery is more weight, which adds cost not just in electricity but in supporting components.
And the battery size affects minimum vehicle size and cargo space.

I wasnt clear, when I wrote "huge kWh packs" I meant that the kWh number would be huge, not the physical size of the pack. Meaning that due to efficiency, new chemistry, etc... they will be able to cram more kWh into the same size pack, and in 10 years that could be quite significant. In 20 years it will likely double with a massive increase in infrastructure support, and at that point you start making ICEs the ones that look impractical

 

[MiamiNole]

It will be interesting to see at what point the interest in increased range begins to drop. Although human behavior is very difficult to predict; I met a P85 owner that always charged to 100% (until Tesla called and told him to stop) even though he had no intention of ever driving >20 miles from home.

Just catching up on this thread, but had to reply with the obligatory "must always stay prepared for the zombie apocalypse!". I bet he also makes his own ammo as well.

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Okay, I still haven't gotten to the end of the new posts on this thread, but wanted to go ahead and give my input. I could very well see a market for 400+ mile range EVs. As you may be able to guess from my user name, I'm from Miami and went to school at Florida State. The drive from Miami to Tallahassee is about 500 miles. The ONLY reason I needed to stop during these trips was to fill up my tank. Otherwise, the goal was to get to my destination as quickly as possible. However, now that I have a wife and kid, the least common denominator for having to stop is when one of THEM need to stop for a restroom break/diaper change/etc. But otherwise, the longer the range of the vehicle, the better it would be for me in those situations.

That being said, a long range (400+ miles) EV would be HUGE amongst the college-aged market. That is the market which definitely makes frequent long ranged trips. Usually cost of getting home is the constraint for kids away from school to make more trips home. Most college kids don't have families/people that need to make frequent stops while driving. Once the price of long range EVs gets low enough that college kids start considering the cost benefits of purchasing one vs. being able to take more trips home, then I can definitely see a need for even bigger batteries than we have now. I never even considered the thought of college kids driving Model 3s, but now that I sit here and think about it, that definitely is a huge market for them. Thoughts?

 

[gregincal]

There's always a use for everything. The question is the increased usefulness versus the increased cost. Even if it were possible, making the Model 3 that long range would increase the cost to a point where it wouldn't make sense. This is probably the best case to be made for battery swapping. A car that has a 200 mile range normally, but you can swap the battery for a 500 mile battery near home when you want to make a road trip.

 

[favo]

I would like to see 350 miles of real-world (75 mph cruising with AC on) range. This would allow for faster supercharging, some flexibility on when and where to charge, and only one or two stops required, even on long driving days in the winter. In a blizzard or temps below 0 deg. F, it would be worse, but still acceptable. If they can make a Performance version with this size battery and costing around $60K, I will be very happy. Alternatively, if they are able to cut charging times in half, 250 miles would probably work. Stopping for 30-45 minutes every 200 miles would be somewhat annoying.

 

[TslaIsFuture]

There's always a use for everything. The question is the increased usefulness versus the increased cost. Even if it were possible, making the Model 3 that long range would increase the cost to a point where it wouldn't make sense. This is probably the best case to be made for battery swapping. A car that has a 200 mile range normally, but you can swap the battery for a 500 mile battery near home when you want to make a road trip.

We have to remember that yes this is true currently, but as time progresses, so will technology, scaling, basic economics.

That $50k 20inch flatscreen plasma tv when it was first introduced.....is now $2k for 75in and is LED. This will be the same with batteries. The price will continue to drop and we will be paying a fraction for a 500mile/charge battery than what current MS owners paid for 250miles/charge.

 

[Lonnie123]

I would like to see 350 miles of real-world (75 mph cruising with AC on) range. This would allow for faster supercharging, some flexibility on when and where to charge, and only one or two stops required, even on long driving days in the winter. In a blizzard or temps below 0 deg. F, it would be worse, but still acceptable. If they can make a Performance version with this size battery and costing around $60K, I will be very happy. Alternatively, if they are able to cut charging times in half, 250 miles would probably work. Stopping for 30-45 minutes every 200 miles would be somewhat annoying.

Are you expecting this to be the release car? Seems quite wishful to me.

- The current highest mileage car gets an estimated 285 miles of range (90D, 270 listed + "6%" per the description of the range upgrade). These numbers get worse with AC on and at 75mph ( something like 230 based on Teslas range estimator)

- to get THAT car to 350 (NOT at 75mph) would be a 22% increase(50% at 75mph), the model 3 will be a smaller car which will necessitate a smaller pack. Elon has stated a 5-10% increase every 2-3 years on the last conference call, lets be realistic and say 5% every 2 years like clock work, that will take at least 6-8 years to get to 350 on the largest pack they offer, which likely wont even fit on the model 3. at 75mph with the AC on your are talking 15-20 years I think.

I really hope the 3 is amazing and blows everyone away (I'm a small investor and will be a day one Model 3 reservation), but getting a range 150% over their current marketing speak ("200 miles of real world range") is very, very unlikely at launch and for the foreseeable future.

 

[MacroP]

I really hope the 3 is amazing and blows everyone away (I'm a small investor and will be a day one Model 3 reservation), but getting a range 150% over their current marketing speak ("200 miles of real world range") is very, very unlikely at launch and for the foreseeable future.

Agreed. I always find it is less worrisome if you always aim a little lower and potentially be pleasantly surprised - as opposed to aiming a little high only to be bitterly disappointed with the outcome.

 

[favo]

Am I expecting 350 miles? No. Am I hoping for it? Yes. I will, however, be shocked if they don't release Model 3 with (at least) two battery options.

Even though Model 3 will have less space for a battery, it will also weigh less and have a smaller frontal area, and possibly a better Cd. Better CdA will mean better range from any given battery capacity. Plus, Model 3 should benefit from the new cells with improved chemistry and density that the Gigafactory will produce.

Will all this overcome the space for a battery being smaller than Model S? I don't know.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Am I expecting 350 miles? No. Am I hoping for it? Yes. I will, however, be shocked if they don't release Model 3 with (at least) two battery options.

Even though Model 3 will have less space for a battery, it will also weigh less and have a smaller frontal area, and possibly a better Cd. Better CdA will mean better range from any given battery capacity. Plus, Model 3 should benefit from the new cells with improved chemistry and density that the Gigafactory will produce.

Will all this overcome the space for a battery being smaller than Model S? I don't know.

The most efficient EV (the i3) gets 81 miles EPA out of 18.7kWh usable (pack is actually 22kWh). That is 231Wh/mi, so 350 mi EPA will take 81 kWh usable. Given 270 EPA translates to 249 at 75mph for the S85D, that means 350 mi at 75mph will need 88kWh usable capacity, which is probably going to be a 95-100kwh pack. That's unlikely to fit in a smaller space.
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/driving-range-model-s-family

 

[favo]

Well, if they manage to squeeze an 8% average annual increase in energy density out of the new batteries from the Gigafactory that will be about 47% better over the roughly five years between Model S with 85 kWh battery in 2012 and the Model 3 in 2017. If Model 3 has 80% of the battery pack area and the same height, it could come with a 100 kWh (85 * 0.8 * 1.47) pack. If they only manage 4% per year, that yields 83 kWh. 2% yields 75 kWh.

 

[MacroP]

Well, if they manage to squeeze an 8% average annual increase in energy density out of the new batteries from the Gigafactory

Yet in 3 years for the Model S they have gone from a 85kWh battery to a 90kWh battery. Doesn't look too promising thus far.

 

[Lonnie123]

Well, if they manage to squeeze an 8% average annual increase in energy density out of the new batteries from the Gigafactory that will be about 47% better over the roughly five years between Model S with 85 kWh battery in 2012 and the Model 3 in 2017. If Model 3 has 80% of the battery pack area and the same height, it could come with a 100 kWh (85 * 0.8 * 1.47) pack. If they only manage 4% per year, that yields 83 kWh. 2% yields 75 kWh.

Where are you getting 8% / year? Elon quotes 5-10% every 2-3 years... And that's Elon, who has been known to be rather optimistic on his time frames. So realistically lets call it 5% every 3 years, and hope they get occasional bursts of an extra 1-3% every few fews.

 

[favo]

Where are you getting 8% / year? Elon quotes 5-10% every 2-3 years... And that's Elon, who has been known to be rather optimistic on his time frames. So realistically lets call it 5% every 3 years, and hope they get occasional bursts of an extra 1-3% every few fews.

Elon recently said 5% average per year. Then said 5-10% every 1-2 years.

Ludicrous Mode Press Conference

17:28 Journalist: Hi. You mentioned that you are expecting a battery increase--increased pack capacity--by 5% per year on average. Does that come per year, or are you looking at certain spikes like 3 years down the road adding, you know, 15%?

17:49 Elon: I would imagine that it's roughly 5 to 10%--I wouldn't imagine a 15% increase, but 5 to 10% every 1 to 2 years.

JB Straubel has also said doubling capacity every 10 years, which would be an average of 7.2% annually.
2014 Energy Storage Symposium

Improvements will likely come in fits and starts every few years. I'm guessing they will have their largest jump (for Tesla so far) when the Gigafactory comes on line. They have a lot of smart people working on it, probably with even greater effort over the next 1-2 years.

ETA: Elon did say 8-9% back in 2012, which is what I remembered.

Here's a nice summary of various Tesla statements on batteries over at the Tesla Motors forums.

 

[vinnie97]

We have to remember that yes this is true currently, but as time progresses, so will technology, scaling, basic economics.

That $50k 20inch flatscreen plasma tv when it was first introduced.....is now $2k for 75in and is LED. This will be the same with batteries. The price will continue to drop and we will be paying a fraction for a 500mile/charge battery than what current MS owners paid for 250miles/charge.

OT but..."LED" = same ole' LCD with backlit LEDs, blech. OLED with its emissive properties giving unbeatable contrast is the future...I like that LG is leading the charge on that front and in battery development as well (with their wise partnership with Tesla). At the rate they're going with all the dev they're doing for GM, they'll soon have the capability of releasing their own EV.

 

[Sasmania]

While of course a 300 mile battery would be nice....I don't see how this is going to matter much in 2017 by the time the 3 comes out. The SuperCharger Network is already robust enough to travel in most areas, but by 2017 if it keeps growing anywhere near the pace it's been, I can't imagine road trips will even be a challenge then...

 

[S'toon]

While of course a 300 mile battery would be nice....I don't see how this is going to matter much in 2017 by the time the 3 comes out. The SuperCharger Network is already robust enough to travel in most areas, but by 2017 if it keeps growing anywhere near the pace it's been, I can't imagine road trips will even be a challenge then...

The nearest supercharger to here is over 300 miles away, and Tesla has no plans to put any closer for the foreseeable future.

 

[Colsla]

The nearest supercharger to here is over 300 miles away, and Tesla has no plans to put any closer for the foreseeable future.

Probably because of low population of SK and they didn't think that the ROI will be high enough for them to sell the Model S .. but eventually they will. Hopefully within the next 5 years before the gigafactory will be fully operational I guess they will build superchargers in and around your city to enable Canadians to travel from West Coast to East Coast ish... well... eventually :smile:

 

[jscholl]

That being said, a long range (400+ miles) EV would be HUGE amongst the college-aged market. That is the market which definitely makes frequent long ranged trips. Usually cost of getting home is the constraint for kids away from school to make more trips home. Most college kids don't have families/people that need to make frequent stops while driving. Once the price of long range EVs gets low enough that college kids start considering the cost benefits of purchasing one vs. being able to take more trips home, then I can definitely see a need for even bigger batteries than we have now. I never even considered the thought of college kids driving Model 3s, but now that I sit here and think about it, that definitely is a huge market for them. Thoughts?

What college kid can afford a new $35k car but can't afford gas or grabbing a bite to eat every once in a while?