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dhanson865
Well-Known Member
This 40s man bought what was a $30,000 2012 SL Leaf with all the options used for $8995 in spring 2015.
I fully expect to be able to buy a Tesla, its just a matter of will I buy new, CPO, or used private sale and how old would the CPO or used be.
It doesn't take much to reach down into a lower segment of buyers once you get past first or second year depreciation.
No offense, but if you can't afford a $35k car, why do you have a thread where you count down every day until the unveiling of a $35k car? You do you tho
bigbear
Member
Anyhoo.....300 miles.
It's interesting to consider the promised Roadster 3.0. Cd allegedly dropping from 0.36 to 0.31, Crr from 11kg/ton to 8.9 IIRC and the benefit of new cell chemistry (53kWh to 70).
Whether this really will up the range from 240 EPA to 400 (350?) remains to be independently verified, as will the effect of the Crr change on the car's handling.
My guess is we'll see a Model 3 200/240 mile Base with a D Performance option/version first and then a Hypermile option/version. Maybe the latter will be launched 18 months later?
It's interesting to consider the promised Roadster 3.0. Cd allegedly dropping from 0.36 to 0.31, Crr from 11kg/ton to 8.9 IIRC and the benefit of new cell chemistry (53kWh to 70).
Whether this really will up the range from 240 EPA to 400 (350?) remains to be independently verified, as will the effect of the Crr change on the car's handling.
My guess is we'll see a Model 3 200/240 mile Base with a D Performance option/version first and then a Hypermile option/version. Maybe the latter will be launched 18 months later?
I'd be happy if everyone already driving 55mph on the interstate today were doing so tomorrow in a Tesla.
Doesn't change my stance on either issues: my general opinion of whether people should buy Teslas in specific and EVs in general (yes on both accounts, to save the humans), and my general opinion of those who clog the left lane going too slow.
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Seems reasonable. My commute to work is 60 minutes and from work is 1.5-2 hours, so that would about do it. If the mountains don't make any difference, that is. But almost all my coworkers live 1.5-2.5 hours (one way) away, so they'd have to charge at work or have a 300 mile range or so. Only one really old guy got a house in San Francisco back when it was cheap and only comes about 40 miles and 40 miles back per day (that's what, Leaf range?)
Tedkidd
Member
Challenge taken!
Over half my coworkers live in central valley, north bay, east bay, San Benito/Monterey, etc.. Let's find a calculator that uses Tesla miles:
Using EV Trip Planner
with speed multiplier 1.2, cabin temp 74F and outside temp 50F:
Hollister -> Palo Alto 63 miles 22.2kWh 79RM (rated miles) 353Wh/mile, then return trip
63 miles 23.2 kWh 83RM 370Wh/mile, for a total of 162RM.
Salinas -> Palo Alto 103RM + back 103RM = 206RM.
Watsonville -> Palo Alto 71RM. Wait, it says net elev change 0ft. Let me check something: Watsonville -> Summit Rd & Old Summit Rd in Santa Cruz is 48RM, net change 1761 feet. There to PA is 23RM. Total is 71RM. Ok then. Back again is 46RM+25RM. Total is 142RM.
Here come some more typical routes:
Modesto -> Palo Alto 119RM + 124RM back = 243RM.
Stockton -> Palo Alto 104RM+111RM=215RM.
Benecia -> Palo Alto 90RM+87RM=177RM.
Sacramento -> Palo Alto 155RM (one person does this, but stays the week, so I assume they can charge locally at night).
So, by my calculation, the only people who will be screwed with the Model 3 that only has 200RM are the people from Stockton, Modesto, Salinas, Los Banos and Monterey, so only 40% of my coworkers. Everyone else would be just fine with 100% SOC and no additional errands making it before 0% on a brand new battery, as long as the temperature doesn't fall much more (see below).
OTOH if it were a 250RM battery, literally every one of my coworkers would be in the same situation they are today with range if they got that EV, unless they wanted to do any type of errands to and from work more than a few miles (I'd say only a third of my coworkers have children to ferry around in today's bus-adverse era).
I just checked Monterey->Palo Alto and the RT is 235RM. I'm the only one that goes and sees someone that far away sometimes, and even that would work fine in a 250RM car (as long as my hotel has charging; if not, then it would be 278RM -- but that would mean the night before I stop at a SC about 3 miles off my route for a while so that the RT home from work the next day would fit in 250RM range -- I do that about weekly).
Los Banos was the last place everyone started moving that works around here before the housing bubble burst, and even that is 124RM for a total of 248RM RT, leaving 2RM to get home (assuming 100% SOC and no detours) on a 250RM battery.
So, the way I see it, 250RM (rated miles) is practical for most modern day workers who can't afford a $3M house where the jobs are at (most people). But, 200RM is well below what at least a third of the people actually need, and increasingly more people, especially if you factor in any headroom, SOC other than 100%, discharge to other than 0%, errands to pick up kids, get food, see wife/GF/Costco/whatever people do.
This all changes if plugging in at work becomes feasible within the next 15 months. Right now, there's no infrastructure to do so, for the types of people I'm talking about, period.
Uhm, I put 33F for temp and Los Banos became 267RM, so those people wouldn't be able to work, unless they ALL used the Gilroy SC EVERY DAY AT THE SAME TIME. Tesla could make good money selling the fights on PPV. "Another action packed evening tonight at the Gilroy SC! Expect knives and fists tonight! Hammers and saws too!"
200RM looks like the richer third of folk, 250RM for the middle of the road or more communal folk, and 300RM for the poorest of folk are the numbers we're looking for to bust into the ICE market for anybody I know.
P.S., in my ICE I always have my seat heater on until the cabin gets to 78F; I heard the new Tesla FW doesn't even properly heat the car. I'm not even sure I'd appreciate driving it if that were true.
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Sasmania
Member
While having a battery with more range is of course great, range anxiety and road trip limitations are currently going away MUCH faster due to the rapidly expanding SuperCharger network, not battery improvements. So assuming the Model 3 gets SuperCharger access, by the time it comes out 98% of the population will be able to go anywhere they need even if battery range doesn't improve one bit.
Also, using the SC network and going 75 or 85 MPH will get you there much faster than going 55 to stretch out your range, even after taking a 30 minute break to charge, eat, etc. In fact to go 300 miles at 55MPH would take you almost 5.5 hours. Going 75 WITH a full hour break (but you only need 30 min probably) will take you 5.
Also, using the SC network and going 75 or 85 MPH will get you there much faster than going 55 to stretch out your range, even after taking a 30 minute break to charge, eat, etc. In fact to go 300 miles at 55MPH would take you almost 5.5 hours. Going 75 WITH a full hour break (but you only need 30 min probably) will take you 5.
These are all fantastic points for going camping, to see relatives, go to a concert, or other type of vacation, but don't cut it for daily commuting and errands issues.
Sasmania
Member
While there are exceptions, I'm not sure how many people commute more than 200-250 miles a day? The issue is the batteries are the most expensive part of the car. They could build a Model S today with a 500 mile range, but it would be crazy expensive, weigh too much, performance would suffer, and so on. This will be even harder to pull off with a 35K car. All to satisfy 5% of the market or 5% of the use cases?
I'm not saying I wouldn't love 300 or 400 miles of range. Hell yea I would. But I'm pretty sure Tesla understands the balance of performance/cost/market better than any of us
I'm reading you and I can't imagine a daily commuting of more than 200 miles! I live in Spain and I know this is a very different country but... it's really impresive. Here more than 150kms (90 miles) for daily commuting is "extreme". Most people only do less than 50-60 kms each day (30-40 miles).
For me, 150kms of range everyday is OK, but one or two times every week I have to travel 350-600kms (200-350 miles) so I will buy the biggest battery option available. For the vast majority of people I think the basic 200 mile range model 3 will be the best option.
For me, 150kms of range everyday is OK, but one or two times every week I have to travel 350-600kms (200-350 miles) so I will buy the biggest battery option available. For the vast majority of people I think the basic 200 mile range model 3 will be the best option.
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MiamiNole
Member
I guess you missed the part where I said "Once the price of long range EVs gets low enough". And I'm speaking from the experience of having to make multiple trips between Miami and Tallahassee. If I would have had access to free supercharging while I was in college, you better believe I would have made even MORE trips home. Heck, I probably would have an unending list of friends lining up to pay to bum a ride since it would be cheaper than driving themselves. A college kid with a Tesla and free supercharger access could potentially make quite a bit of side money, heh.
bigbear
Member
Interesting. What is your source for stating that the Roadster 3.0 package of upgrades (or at least the promised but so far available aero modifications) will decrease the CD to 0.31?
(Mods please move this post to the Roadster 3.0 thread)
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