455,000 active reservations at the time of the July Model 3 event.

[KarenRei]

Almost half a billion dollars. Amazing.

Deposits aren't the exciting number. Just ignoring the huge rate of new accruing reservations, 455k reservations with an average sale price of $43k is $19,6B in revenue, which - with Tesla's goal of 25% profit per unit (if I'm remembering right, correct me if I'm wrong) would be 4,9B in profit (before non-production expenses). Just from today's preorders. And a net of +1800 per day on the reservations is an annualized 657k reservations per year (although one expects it to slow, it's been boosted by the launch event... but then again, they could turn up the PR on the Model 3 any time they wanted)

Tesla has the recipe for success sitting in front of them. They just need to get through "production hell" and get the cars out the door, without ruining their reputation (and thus future profitability) in the process. If Tesla sticks to their schedule and the Model 3 isn't plagued with bugs, they will be an established, profitable automaker with a solid, demonstrated customer base.

 

[KarenRei]

The 'failures' were a QC lubrication problem. That should not be used to conclude anything about the general reliability of EV components.

One hopes that they learned a lot about how to ensure reliability from the S/X. But then again, it's a new motor with the 3. Only time will tell. Due to their experience, but also taking into account problems in the past, my bet would be on "good, but not superb reliability". Slowly improving each year. Indeed, QC improvements over time is the main reason I'm not upset about my late delivery date ("Early 2019" for us in Iceland) - apart from worries about whether our VAT deduction will still be around. 1,5-2 years to get the kinks out is probably a very good thing, given that we don't have a service centre in the country.

 

[R.S]

And a net of +1800 per day on the reservations is an annualized 657k reservations per year (although one expects it to slow, it's been boosted by the launch event... but then again, they could turn up the PR on the Model 3 any time they wanted).

Well, apparently they lost reservations, so I think that "net gain of 1800 per day" sounds weird. If they had a net gain the number of reservations should increase.

And to really play the devils advocate here they only got 12,600 new reservations in the week after the reveal, 1800 per day on average. That isn't really a lot.

On the other hand I don't think it really matters. Right now there will be a lot of people in the US very interested in the car, whereas in Europe, Australia, or Asia nobody really knows when it will come and how expensive it will be. So I think demand will make a major shift away from the US in the coming two years, towards the EU first and once they have a factory in China, that's going to be the hot market.

 

[KarenRei]

Well, apparently they lost reservations, so I think that "net gain of 1800 per day" sounds weird. If they had a net gain the number of reservations should increase.

And they are. So what's the problem?

 

[Garlan Garner]

Wait just one moment. Elon just stated that he has no doubt that Tesla will reach 10K units per week "BY THE END OF NEXT YEAR". That's a FAR FAR FAR cry from his earlier comment that they were going to reach 10K units per week by the end of THIS year.

What in the world is the deal here?

I'm really getting tired of this.

Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk has ‘zero doubt’ about 10,000 units per week in 2018, corrects reservation tally

 

[R.S]

And they are. So what's the problem?

If you have 63k fewer active reservations, you can't have a net gain of 1800 a day.

 

[R.S]

Wait just one moment. Elon just stated that he has no doubt that Tesla will reach 10K units per week "BY THE END OF NEXT YEAR". That's a FAR FAR FAR cry from his earlier comment that they were going to reach 10K units per week by the end of THIS year.

What in the world is the deal here?

I'm really getting tired of this.

Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk has ‘zero doubt’ about 10,000 units per week in 2018, corrects reservation tally

When did he say 10k per week in 2017? I thought it always was 5k at the end of this year.

 

[JY07]

If you have 63k fewer active reservations, you can't have a net gain of 1800 a day.

1800 per day since friday

the 60k cancellations have been spread out over a full year

 

[bro1999]

Tens of thousands of people have canceled their Tesla Model 3 orders was a story on this along w/a response from Elon.

Funny that Elon compares the Model 3 to a hamburger.

A hamburger costs 7-8 bucks tops though. Slight difference compared to a $35-60k car.

 

[KarenRei]

If you have 63k fewer active reservations, you can't have a net gain of 1800 a day.

So if I made a widget, and got 10 new reservations and one cancellation per week for my widget, and then after 100 days reported that I had gotten 1000 widget reservations, 900 of which were active, would you say that I'm losing reservations overall?

Because that's the situation Tesla reported on the conference call.

 

[R.S]

1800 per day since friday

the 60k cancellations have been spread out over a full year

Ah ok that actually makes sense. Weird that that many people cancelled their reservations just so, over the year, but then the 1800 net new reservations makes sense.

 

[EinSV]

Well, apparently they lost reservations, so I think that "net gain of 1800 per day" sounds weird. If they had a net gain the number of reservations should increase. <snip>

This is not correct. Tesla has been gaining reservations since the 3/31/2016 reveal -- from 373,000 in April 2016 to 455,000 by last week's event -- so about 1250 net new reservations per week before it accelerated to 1800 per day recently.

In other words, many more new reservations than cancellations even before the handover event last week.

 

[EinSV]

Wait just one moment. Elon just stated that he has no doubt that Tesla will reach 10K units per week "BY THE END OF NEXT YEAR". That's a FAR FAR FAR cry from his earlier comment that they were going to reach 10K units per week by the end of THIS year.

What in the world is the deal here?

I'm really getting tired of this.

Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk has ‘zero doubt’ about 10,000 units per week in 2018, corrects reservation tally

Elon has been predicting 5,000 Model 3 units per week this year, not 10,000. He still is.

Personally, I was very happy to hear Elon's extremely high level of confidence in reaching a production level of 10K Model 3s per week some time next year.

 

[R.S]

So if I made a widget, and got 10 new reservations and one cancellation per week for my widget, and then after 100 days reported that I had gotten 1000 widget reservations, 900 of which were active, would you say that I'm losing reservations overall?

Because that's the situation Tesla reported on the conference call.

This is not correct. Tesla has been gaining reservations since the 3/31/2016 reveal -- from 373,000 in April 2016 to 455,000 by last week's event -- so about 1250 net new reservations per week before it accelerated to 1800 per day recently.

In other words, many more new reservations than cancellations even before the handover event last week.

Got it guys, my mistake. I didn't notice that it was gross reservations vs active ones. I thought it would have been previously announced reservations vs currently announced reservations. I had the electrek article in mind, that said Tesla had more than halve a million Model 3 reservations. So I thought the 63k were lost after the reveal.

 

[R.S]

Personally, I was very happy to hear Elon's extremely high level of confidence in reaching a production level of 10K Model 3s per week some time next year.

What? Why? Getting from 5k to 10k within a year isn't the hard part. I would have been surprised if he said 10k would be hard. Getting to 5k this year will be.

 

[flamingoezz]

I wouldn't even call it a reveal..they showed the exterior of a couple cars and gave the mileage figures.

the reveal part was a big disappointment and number of cancellation could have been higher.

 

[EinSV]

What? Why? Getting from 5k to 10k within a year isn't the hard part. I would have been surprised if he said 10k would be hard. Getting to 5k this year will be.

There are many people who have doubted Tesla's ability to produce high volumes of Model 3s. In the past, Elon has predicted reaching a production rate of 10K Model 3s per week some time next year, but this is the first time I have heard him say there is a 100% probability of reaching that number.

IMO, that is great news for anyone who is concerned about long delays. Especially for those who are toward the front of the line and want to get their car as soon as possible, clearly the initial production ramp is also very important. But not so important in the long run IMO.

 

[bro1999]

May 15th, 2016 - Tesla announces they have 373,000 Model 3 reservations
August 2, 2017 - Tesla announces they have 455,000 Model 3 reservations

So roughly 15 months after the last official announcement, Tesla has gained 82,000 net Model 3 reservations, or a clip of about 5,400 a month.

 

[Garlan Garner]

If you have 63k fewer active reservations, you can't have a net gain of 1800 a day.

Lets see......

518,000 divided by 490 days since 3/31/16.....= 1,057 reservations per day.
455,000 divided by 490 days since 3/31/16.....= 928 reservations per day.
455,000 divided by 452 ( weekdays ) since.....= 1,006 reservations per day

I don't get how they arrive at that number.....oh well.

 

[Chopr147]

And to really play the devils advocate here they only got 12,600 new reservations in the week after the reveal, 1800 per day on average. That isn't really a lot.

"ONLY" 12,600 reservations? Not being rude but it's a car! How many companies get reservations for cars? And i'm not including exotics like a Bugati.
12,600 is pretty damn good considering Tesla did a reveal then did zero PR afterward. They just let the media and all the accolades given take care of the rest.
If i'm not mistaken the last time this happened was 1966 for the Mustang and the total reservations were around 15,000