455,000 active reservations at the time of the July Model 3 event.

[voip-ninja]

Very true. Even for many millionaires (and that includes those not making $1M/yr).

Talking to the people in line on 3/31, the amount of wealth many people have is staggering. And I can't even claim to be all that poor. But I certainly felt like it after talking to those people.

The number/percentage of very wealthy people in the San Francisco and San Jose is not representative of most of the country.... but definitely the number of "very wealthy" people have increased by a huge margin in the last 20 or so years.

In your area many of these people earned their wealth through stock options or are the lucky recipients of previous generations of their family having the foresight to buy land in the bay area.

If my net worth is $500,000 and I buy a $50K car it represents 10% of my net. A $5 burger represents .00001% of my wealth.

If my net worth is $5M and I buy a $50K car it represents 1% of my net and a burger represents .000001% of wealth.

If my net worth is $5B and I buy a 50K car it represents .0001% of my net and a burger isn't even worth thinking about.

 

[gambit48]

I don't live in the Bay Area, but I get your point. And it doesn't contradict my point.

I do live in CA, but in a relatively "low cost" area. Still, the wealth disparity in the US is kind of crazy. There are a LOT of really wealthy people. They're not all tech babies or family money either. There's just enough of these really wealthy people that Tesla will be fine in terms of demand for their upscale S and X models.

 

[Chopr147]

Opel has 4+k Bolt reservations in Norway.

Didn't know that. Does Chevy know this?

Elon stated that they had built a total of 50 "production" Model 3 cars.

Some confusing information out there Shocking!
But the Model 3 with a VIN of 316 made the rounds last week, then Elon said we have 50. So what is it?

 

[Thomas Edison]

Think about this though: since the reveal, 1,800 new reservations a day, which works out to 12,600 new reservations a week. This means that even after Tesla spools up to 10,000 cars a week, the waiting period grows

I think it's safe to say that the 1800 will calm down quite a bit based on the 373,000 announcement early on and where we are now. It's probably just a media event burst. Now more people know about the car that might not have before and some people on the fence see that it's real.

 

[K-MTG]

No fair, that has the premium cheese package.

It also has a solid bun-shade with the premium cheese. Tesla won't let me customize.

 

[SageBrush]

I think it's safe to say that the 1800 will calm down quite a bit based on the 373,000 announcement early on and where we are now. It's probably just a media event burst. Now more people know about the car that might not have before and some people on the fence see that it's real.

I was wondering who these people are too. My current best guess is that they are readers of car magazines and car reviews. In a sense, these are people who pick a car based on someone else's opinion. They just might be the tip of the iceberg, ready to come unglued as people hear from early owners.

 

[Thomas Edison]

I was wondering who these people are too. My current best guess is that they are readers of car magazines and car reviews. In a sense, these are people who pick a car based on someone else's opinion. They just might be the tip of the iceberg, ready to come unglued as people hear from early owners.

That's a good point. If it is just the tip, then giga factory 3 might need to break ground sooner than planned.

 

[alseTrick]

You didn't use any emojis so I can't tell if you are joking or not. But if anyone thinks that thousands of Model 3s have already been built they are mistaken based on Elon's public statements.

Yesterday I did the factory tour, my fourth in four years. The tour takes you right by the Model 3 production line: there was only a transparent wall of acrylic between the tour tram and the line. The line is so dense with robots I could not see more than 20 ft into it. The line wasn't moving and in the section of it that I saw (maybe 100 feet) I saw no car bodies. That did not surprise me, since just last Friday Elon stated that they had built a total of 50 "production" Model 3 cars. So Tesla is in the earliest stages of getting the production line running.

As far as the number of Model 3 reservations, what I heard in the quarterly conference call yesterday seemed like good news.

Definitely sarcastic. I have an issue with several things M3OC has put out there over the last year.

Though I generally like their YouTube shows.

 

[MXWing]

They are willing to reserve the car, which may translate into purchase.

It does the boggle the mind though to think that Tesla has to decide whether to build out production to serve up 1800 cars a day and fill the back order, or watch the delivery window widen. The gamble is enormous.

I bet if 400k Models appeared suddenly at 50k tomorrow they would be all gone if you were offered yes/no on the spot decision.

If there was a binary call option on that gamble I would take it.

 

[MXWing]

Wait just one moment. Elon just stated that he has no doubt that Tesla will reach 10K units per week "BY THE END OF NEXT YEAR". That's a FAR FAR FAR cry from his earlier comment that they were going to reach 10K units per week by the end of THIS year.

What in the world is the deal here?

I'm really getting tired of this.

Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk has ‘zero doubt’ about 10,000 units per week in 2018, corrects reservation tally

It was 20000 per month production at the end of this year. That translates to on Jan 1st 2018 it is 5000 per week on average and ramping up.

 

[cwerdna]

The 'failures' were a QC lubrication problem.

Source? Elon's made numerous claims to as reasons for drive unit replacement and problems over the years as well as assertions on this topic.

All these failed due to lubrication problems?
Just took delivery of my new Model X 90D - Not At All Silky Smooth...
New P100d model S failed!!!
P85D Front Motor Died
P85D Front Motor Died
"Rear Motor Disabled"
Model S Technical / Mechanical Issues

In November 2015, Elon claimed the drive units going (being shipped) out then were "excellent": 100% drive unit failure rate??.

And the guys that were on their 7th+ drive unit all had a "QC lubrication problem" on every single unit?

I think New Motors - 1 million mile life. Model 3 the last car you buy? is a reasonable ask.

 

[R.S]

Didn't know that. Does Chevy know this?

Subconsciously aware, at best. Nah, as far as I know they are delivering cars there, but 4k cars are a lot, if you see that Opel usually sells 3-4k cars a year, all models, there.

Some confusing information out there Shocking!
But the Model 3 with a VIN of 316 made the rounds last week, then Elon said we have 50. So what is it?

The 300 were pre-production models. But you could argue that there probably isn't much difference between those and the 50 "production" models. Other than those 50 being not owned by Tesla.