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4680 Batteries from Giga Texas

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I think people who own current model Y are in denial. No way Tesla doesn’t increase range or speed once 4680s are fully rolling. Elon even said they are NOT battery constraint
Who here thinks there is no way Tesla will boost ranges of the Model Y to the point of approaching Model S numbers? Not going to happen IMO. At best we may see a 5-10% range bump closer to that of the model 3.

Tesla will never cannibalize their own SX sales while they slowly migrate those cars to 4680 over time.
 
I'm waiting for an Aug 2022 delivery and I am fully not expecting any range improvement if it uses the new battery. I expect them to increase slightly once they are done with the old battery format, so that all factories can use the new format. But the increase will probably be negligible.

I am more excited about the AMD processor, and potentially better rear window glass. And personally, I think an availability of adaptive suspension will bring me more joy than 4680...
 
Personally I don’t know that I’d want to get a a 4680 right off jump. For me waiting 6-12 months into production seems wiser, the initial bugs of the line should be worked out, so overall quality should have improved. Any potential issues with the new strurctural pack or whatever possible battery issues there could be should start to be evident and or resolved. Tesla doesn’t have the best reputation for build quality and we’ve seen it generally gets better over time.
 
Who here thinks there is no way Tesla will boost ranges of the Model Y to the point of approaching Model S numbers? Not going to happen IMO. At best we may see a 5-10% range bump closer to that of the model 3.

Tesla will never cannibalize their own SX sales while they slowly migrate those cars to 4680 over time.
Agreed...at least for now, any benefits from the 4680 to consumers will be through the lower weight...in the future they'll have the ability to increase capacity on all of their cars....but that'll either be an add on or different model trim.
 
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Personally I don’t know that I’d want to get a a 4680 right off jump. For me waiting 6-12 months into production seems wiser, the initial bugs of the line should be worked out, so overall quality should have improved. Any potential issues with the new strurctural pack or whatever possible battery issues there could be should start to be evident and or resolved. Tesla doesn’t have the best reputation for build quality and we’ve seen it generally gets better over time.
Elon did an interview with Sandy Munro a little while back and said that you either want one of the first to roll off the line or a ways down the road when they've worked the kinks out. They run the line so slow to start and are more meticulous about quality control so initial units are good to go. They're sloppy when they're trying to ramp up production.

To be honest, I was surprised to hear him explain it that honestly.
 
They have sold Model 3 built in different factories with different capabilities before?
Yes currently made in china 3’s will usually have newer features/changes that slowly make it to US made cars. Ryzen and 12v battery changes are the most recent changes that china cars had before US cars. Prior to that I know a big thing was china cars had heated steering wheels but Fremont cars didn’t. Then that changed of course after a little while.
 
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Latest news on 4680 battery coming from Giga Texas. The leftover old batteries will be pushing out from Fremont until it is depleted. Thoughts?
“IF” the 4680 battery is so great; Why would people want to buy a MY with the old 2170 battery? 🤷🏻‍♂️ Tesla promised delivery (4680 MY) out of Texas by the end of Q1, That’s about 30 days from now; WITHOUT ANY RANGE & HP SPECS? 😲🤦🏻‍♂️
 
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Making a 400 mile Y and 3 would also cannibalize sales from the model S as the 400 mile range is one of top selling points of that car.
Yes, but they'll need to update both it and X here in the not too distant future. Given Tesla's 'optimistic' range to begin with, asking someone to pay over $100k for a SUV rated at 330 miles.... let alone a $135k one with only 300.... seems excessive. Even the Model S seems anemic with 375/348 given the base Lucid Air is rated at 406 miles.... and the upper end one 520 miles.

It may not happen in the next few months, but I'll bet most of the line gets a 5-7% bump in the next 12, certainly in the next 18.
 
Eventually yes, initially no.
This all depends on whether Tesla just adds them to P models only to start and ups the P range by 20 miles and lower 0-60 to 3.3 for now. 🤷🏽‍♂️ I figure T will do something to make the consumer salivate over a momentous change and shunt more buyers to the P model asap …while they ramp down 2170 for remaining LR.

Win win win. Teslas highest margin trim level gets more orders and sales. They ramp down faster with less LR orders and consumer is once again amazed at T’s tech progress :)
 
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For $60K.. the Model Y should have 400 miles of range. This car was $10K cheaper just a year ago, and came with more features to include radar.

Its easy to forget the point of buying an EV is to permanently replace your ICE vehicle. In order for that to happen for the majority of new car purchases, it means EV's need to get significantly cheaper every year, while also providing more range. If I can go into a Toyota dealership and buy a $25K Camry that gets 40mpg that can go 400 miles off a single tank of gas.. why would I pay $50K Model 3 that gets 300 miles of range and requires some sort of EVSE instead?

Until EV's get cheaper, with more range.. they just don't make sense for the average car shopper. The future of EV's isn't dependent on the 3/Y vs the S/X. The future is dependent on EV's being affordable and accessible to everyone. And that bigger range is needed for those who live in cold climates, do lots of highway driving, haul/tow heavy loads or don't have a charger at home.

4 years ago you could buy a new 2018 Model 3 for $50K with an advertised range of 310 miles. Today you can buy a new Model 3 for $50K with 360 miles of range. Thats not really progress. Its great for Elon & TSLA shareholders.. but for everybody else it's still way too expensive.

As far as the 3/Y stepping on the S/X toes. Lets be real.. nobody is getting 400 miles of range in a Model S. And I doubt if anyone is getting even 300 miles of range in a Model X.


The reason to buy the Model S isnt the extra range.. as the 3 is so much more efficient its actually quicker to drive distance. You buy the Model S or X.. because of the extra comfort, luxury, and performance provided by a bigger vehicle, with a lot more features. And if extra range is really that much of a concern.. the same range increase the 4680 cell gives to the 3/Y.. is the same it would give to S/X. So while the 3/Y might get bumped to 400miles.. the S/X could get bumped to 500 miles. EPA estimated of course.
 
For $60K.. the Model Y should have 400 miles of range. This car was $10K cheaper just a year ago, and came with more features to include radar.

Its easy to forget the point of buying an EV is to permanently replace your ICE vehicle. In order for that to happen for the majority of new car purchases, it means EV's need to get significantly cheaper every year, while also providing more range. If I can go into a Toyota dealership and buy a $25K Camry that gets 40mpg that can go 400 miles off a single tank of gas.. why would I pay $50K Model 3 that gets 300 miles of range and requires some sort of EVSE instead?

Until EV's get cheaper, with more range.. they just don't make sense for the average car shopper. The future of EV's isn't dependent on the 3/Y vs the S/X. The future is dependent on EV's being affordable and accessible to everyone. And that bigger range is needed for those who live in cold climates, do lots of highway driving, haul/tow heavy loads or don't have a charger at home.

4 years ago you could buy a new 2018 Model 3 for $50K with an advertised range of 310 miles. Today you can buy a new Model 3 for $50K with 360 miles of range. Thats not really progress. Its great for Elon & TSLA shareholders.. but for everybody else it's still way too expensive.

As far as the 3/Y stepping on the S/X toes. Lets be real.. nobody is getting 400 miles of range in a Model S. And I doubt if anyone is getting even 300 miles of range in a Model X.


The reason to buy the Model S isnt the extra range.. as the 3 is so much more efficient its actually quicker to drive distance. You buy the Model S or X.. because of the extra comfort, luxury, and performance provided by a bigger vehicle, with a lot more features. And if extra range is really that much of a concern.. the same range increase the 4680 cell gives to the 3/Y.. is the same it would give to S/X. So while the 3/Y might get bumped to 400miles.. the S/X could get bumped to 500 miles. EPA estimated of course.
With respect to 310 to 360 miles, that is progress. Amazing progress. I'd be thrilled if we continued at that pace. By 2030 it'll have a 450 mile range for less than it is now.....
 
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With respect to 310 to 360 miles, that is progress. Amazing progress. I'd be thrilled if we continued at that pace. By 2030 it'll have a 450 mile range for less than it is now.....
100% agree. That’s a 16% increase. Do combustion engines get this sort of mpg gain on 4 yrs? Prob not.

Agreed by 2026 who knows with EV’s !