4680 Model Ys?

[NYMY]

$28.8K EV6 - where is this?
Don't EV6's start at $40.9K...

My daughter (looking to trade ICE car to EV) has a 2018 Elantra she bought $21K in Sep 2017 now at 20K miles got offered $21K. Only $9K more for a new EV6 if rebates and credits get it down to $30K.

Yeah, this article suggests precisely that (a base price of $40.9k *before* taxes and fees)

Kia releases pricing for its all-electric EV6 lineup

Prices for Kia’s new EV start at $42,115.

www.theverge.com

 

[Fairchild]

I don't agree. At least in the US, Tesla would go broke making $25k car right now. The cost of production and design, relative to price would not be profitable. China is different. The cost of everything there is less. Land, machinery, labor, parts... are all cheaper. The percent of people who can afford a Dual Motor 3/Y is also much much lower. This is why they are already down scale there, with the Model Y SR. The only way to get to their goal is to make money and achieve economies of scale. I expect that their next factory will be a second location in China, as China is at sweet spot of manufacturing capability and low cost. This will enable the $25k car.

I'm afraid I have to defer to what Musk said in his earnings call, "it's clear from your response that you don't understand the concept."

You said car manufacturers move downscale as they grow, I gave you the examples of Ford before Lincoln, VW before Audi, Hyundai before Genesis, and Chevy before Cadillac., just to name a few. Most car manufacturers move upscale as they grow. That's why Tesla's "strategic goal" is so revolutionary.

There is a difference between their "business goal" and their "mission goal" and their "strategic goal". Producing a $25,000 vehicle is a mission goal, but perhaps a strategic goal, but it will never be a business goal.

Let me bold and say that Tesla will NEVER build a $25,000 EV! At least for use in the US. If one is ever built in China, it will never reach our shores at that price.

That is the point, I was trying to make. If you are totally dedicated to your mission goal, you'd put an EV in every driveway. That obviously runs counter to a business goal of making a profit for your company and for your investors. If you are holding your breath and waiting for TESLA to generate enough capital or develop enough engineering capacity to build a $25,000 vehicle, you can exhale. You heard it straight from the horse's mouth at the earning call. "Making a $25,000 care is not even on the table and that sort of question is just sort of the wrong question." The $25,000 Tesla is now a vehicle of blogs and dreamers. We are naive to think it will come to fruition. Remember the $30,000 Model 3. Sure. Each year that passes, pushes a $25,000 vehicle further away as costs of the metals rise and others entering the EV market drive the price of the metals even higher. We are naive to think it will come to fruition.

The clearest example of the death of the $25000 car is that Mines are the biggest holes in Tesla’s $25,000 car plans.
MINING.COM’s ranking of the Top 20 EVs of 2021 and the battery metals used in them shows Tesla and its competitors struggling with rising costs as lithium, cobalt and nickel prices surge:

A year ago MINING.COM also calculated how much lithium, nickel, cobalt, rare earth, graphite, copper, manganese and aluminum Tesla will need to reach its stated goal of producing 20 million cars per year. In short, Tesla would have to own vast swathes of Chile’s copper fields, buy up most of the Congo’s cobalt operations, convince Indonesia to hand over all its nickel, procure 23 times Madagascar’s graphite mining, and break China’s rare earth monopoly.

Do you really think those resources are going to get "cheap" enough to make a $25,000 vehicle? Telsa has carved out it's niche. It's going to leave the $25,000 car to the likes of Hyundai and Kia and the Chinese. The number one selling car in China is a $5000 EV. Tesla comes in second.

Musk is an ADHD poster child and he gets bored easily, (EVs, roofs, flamethrowers, Space X, Starlink, the Boring Company, Tesla underwear and Tesla Tequilla to name a few. He spent an hour making fresh promises about robotaxis (“the most important source of profitability for Tesla”) and a humanoid the company unveiled in August which “has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time." He is bored and his mind is moving on.

So, what has been the greatest influence on accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy. Elon Musk himself.
Without him and his vision, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
Without him and his vision, we wouldn't have almost every car company in the world scrambling to break into the EV market.
Without him and his vision, we wouldn't have the reduced emissions we have today. A recent study from the Yale School of the Environment published in Nature Communications found that the total indirect emissions from electric vehicles pale in comparison to the indirect emissions from fossil fuel-powered vehicles.

So hat's off to Elon. He should be appreciated immeasurably for his contributions. He should also probably hire a PR/Marketing specialist to handle his earnings calls, but that is a discussion for another time. Musk can't, alone, be expected to save the world.
I never said Tesla should make a $25,000 car. As a stockholder, I don't think they should. I simply started (the business model aside) and in the purest sense, that would be the fastest way to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. Let's leave it there.

 

[Ogre]

A year ago MINING.COM also calculated how much lithium, nickel, cobalt, rare earth, graphite, copper, manganese and aluminum Tesla will need to reach its stated goal of producing 20 million cars per year. In short, Tesla would have to own vast swathes of Chile’s copper fields, buy up most of the Congo’s cobalt operations, convince Indonesia to hand over all its nickel, procure 23 times Madagascar’s graphite mining, and break China’s rare earth monopoly.

I’m not sure what they used for estimates, but since Tesla is stopping the use of Cobalt I have to wonder what the source of their estimates are.

Likewise, any low $$ car Tesla makes will have LFP cells and thus nickel supply won’t be an issue.

Tesla is very likely to be be mining their own lithium in Nevada within 3-5 years.

I can’t really speak to the rest, but it seems to me your source is poorly informed about what Tesla’s actual need will be.

 

[DrGriz]

I would think the economics will be different. More restaurants will have them (so McDonalds not 7-11). People will figure out the economics…

Probably not DC chargers. Maybe, but I think those are mostly Level 2

 

[DrGriz]

Unlikely to unwind 100 years of subsidies.
The fossil fuel industry made investment decisions based on them, and still have deep pockets to protect their investment decisions made under current 'rules'.

I know. *sigh*

 

[Smitty79]

I'm afraid I have to defer to what Musk said in his earnings call, "it's clear from your response that you don't understand the concept."

You said car manufacturers move downscale as they grow, I gave you the examples of Ford before Lincoln, VW before Audi, Hyundai before Genesis, and Chevy before Cadillac., just to name a few. Most car manufacturers move upscale as they grow. That's why Tesla's "strategic goal" is so revolutionary.

There is a difference between their "business goal" and their "mission goal" and their "strategic goal". Producing a $25,000 vehicle is a mission goal, but perhaps a strategic goal, but it will never be a business goal.

Let me bold and say that Tesla will NEVER build a $25,000 EV! At least for use in the US. If one is ever built in China, it will never reach our shores at that price.

That is the point, I was trying to make. If you are totally dedicated to your mission goal, you'd put an EV in every driveway. That obviously runs counter to a business goal of making a profit for your company and for your investors. If you are holding your breath and waiting for TESLA to generate enough capital or develop enough engineering capacity to build a $25,000 vehicle, you can exhale. You heard it straight from the horse's mouth at the earning call. "Making a $25,000 care is not even on the table and that sort of question is just sort of the wrong question." The $25,000 Tesla is now a vehicle of blogs and dreamers. We are naive to think it will come to fruition. Remember the $30,000 Model 3. Sure. Each year that passes, pushes a $25,000 vehicle further away as costs of the metals rise and others entering the EV market drive the price of the metals even higher. We are naive to think it will come to fruition.

The clearest example of the death of the $25000 car is that Mines are the biggest holes in Tesla’s $25,000 car plans.
MINING.COM’s ranking of the Top 20 EVs of 2021 and the battery metals used in them shows Tesla and its competitors struggling with rising costs as lithium, cobalt and nickel prices surge:

A year ago MINING.COM also calculated how much lithium, nickel, cobalt, rare earth, graphite, copper, manganese and aluminum Tesla will need to reach its stated goal of producing 20 million cars per year. In short, Tesla would have to own vast swathes of Chile’s copper fields, buy up most of the Congo’s cobalt operations, convince Indonesia to hand over all its nickel, procure 23 times Madagascar’s graphite mining, and break China’s rare earth monopoly.

Do you really think those resources are going to get "cheap" enough to make a $25,000 vehicle? Telsa has carved out it's niche. It's going to leave the $25,000 car to the likes of Hyundai and Kia and the Chinese. The number one selling car in China is a $5000 EV. Tesla comes in second.

Musk is an ADHD poster child and he gets bored easily, (EVs, roofs, flamethrowers, Space X, Starlink, the Boring Company, Tesla underwear and Tesla Tequilla to name a few. He spent an hour making fresh promises about robotaxis (“the most important source of profitability for Tesla”) and a humanoid the company unveiled in August which “has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time." He is bored and his mind is moving on.

So, what has been the greatest influence on accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy. Elon Musk himself.
Without him and his vision, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
Without him and his vision, we wouldn't have almost every car company in the world scrambling to break into the EV market.
Without him and his vision, we wouldn't have the reduced emissions we have today. A recent study from the Yale School of the Environment published in Nature Communications found that the total indirect emissions from electric vehicles pale in comparison to the indirect emissions from fossil fuel-powered vehicles.

So hat's off to Elon. He should be appreciated immeasurably for his contributions. He should also probably hire a PR/Marketing specialist to handle his earnings calls, but that is a discussion for another time. Musk can't, alone, be expected to save the world.
I never said Tesla should make a $25,000 car. As a stockholder, I don't think they should. I simply started (the business model aside) and in the purest sense, that would be the fastest way to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. Let's leave it there.

Henry Ford revolutionized not just cars, but all of manufacturing. His market was down scale to start with. That was the unserved market. Telsa can't sell 4 Million, made in America, $25k cars a year without more capitol and tech than they currently have. To get the capitol and tech, they need profit on the high dollar cars. Tesla will go down scale once the $50k car market saturates. The next more will likely be the LFP battery Model Y. Another indicator might be a long range single motor 3 or Y.

In the next few years, battery minerals will be much cheaper. LFP is already cheaper. I could see Sodium batteries driving things still lower.

You are right, they won't make the US $25k car. Inflation's going to kill that.

I do agree that Elon may be the biggest driver to sustainable energy.

 

[Brolan]

The new 25K car is not likely to happen. Buyers will have to settle for the 25K used car as time goes by.

 

[The_mattyg]

What is the general guess on when MY will be delivered out of Austin with 4680 batteries?

 

[thinktwice]

My hope for 4680 cars is for Tesla to offer a few more RANGE options. Like say a LR+ and maybe a LR Max. I’m waiting to trade up to a 4680 Y but want more range. I’d gladly pay for a 400 mile Y.

Based on Tesla's own Keynote, 4680 cells would provide a max range increase of 16%. So using the current longest range MY configuration of 330 miles as a baseline, we're talking a maximum range of 382 miles. I personally don't think that's worth holding out for, and that's assuming Telsa would maximize range with it's initial deployment of 4680 which I don't think they would.

 

[thinktwice]

What is the general guess on when MY will be delivered out of Austin with 4680 batteries?

End of Q1.

 

[Brolan]

Elon said by the end of the quarter. But that doesn’t imply a significant volume.

 

[DrGriz]

Elon said by the end of the quarter. But that doesn’t imply a significant volume.

Musk said "pending [presumably NHTSA] certification," and "fairly soon" at the earnings call. Baglino said simply "we believe...this quarter."

By that, I would guess they could actually start any day now if they get a thumbs up. Totally agree there will likely be a long ramp up.

 

[tangible1]

Based on Tesla's own Keynote, 4680 cells would provide a max range increase of 16%. So using the current longest range MY configuration of 330 miles as a baseline, we're talking a maximum range of 382 miles. I personally don't think that's worth holding out for, and that's assuming Telsa would maximize range with it's initial deployment of 4680 which I don't think they would.

Don't get ahead of yourself.
The MYLR and MYP will NOT GET A MAJOR RANGE BOOST
Tesla will conserve precious battery supplies and at best match the 82kWh pack rating currently shipping in the MYLR and MYP.
Given the weight savings the new chassis will get, that would amount to a few % additional mileage. That's all you can expect. PERIOD.

"4680 battery supplies (internal and external) are sufficient to meet production plans" according to VP Engr Baglione during the Earnings Call.
Emphasis on 'internal + external' - which means they'll be constrained for now, given the need for MY volume at Fremont and Austin, + SEMI prototype production.
There was NO indication range will be increased by any amount. Never has been at any level.
The Blogs are BS. All clickbait speculation.

 

[Ogre]

Based on Tesla's own Keynote, 4680 cells would provide a max range increase of 16%. So using the current longest range MY configuration of 330 miles as a baseline, we're talking a maximum range of 382 miles. I personally don't think that's worth holding out for, and that's assuming Telsa would maximize range with it's initial deployment of 4680 which I don't think they would.

More likely, they just reduce the number of cells they put in the cars and preserve the range. So the next gen Model Y has 70kWh cells, is capable of charging at 324kW and since it has a smaller battery, charges about much quicker (faster charge rate, smaller cells, less tapering -> Zoom!).

 

[thinktwice]

Don't get ahead of yourself.
The MYLR and MYP will NOT GET A MAJOR RANGE BOOST
Tesla will conserve precious battery supplies and at best match the 82kWh pack rating currently shipping in the MYLR and MYP.
Given the weight savings the new chassis will get, that would amount to a few % additional mileage. That's all you can expect. PERIOD.

"4680 battery supplies (internal and external) are sufficient to meet production plans" according to VP Engr Baglione during the Earnings Call.
Emphasis on 'internal + external' - which means they'll be constrained for now, given the need for MY volume at Fremont and Austin, + SEMI prototype production.
There was NO indication range will be increased by any amount. Never has been at any level.
The Blogs are BS. All clickbait speculation.

I agree!! Was responding to a comment.

 

[Fairchild]

I know. *sigh*

Energy Subsidies Down in 2020, back with a vengeance in 2022.

Each year, governments around the world pour nearly half a trillion dollars into fossil fuel (non-sustainable) subsidies. This chart breaks down a decade of fossil fuel consumption subsidies by energy source using data from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Despite growing support for the clean energy transition, the fossil fuel industry reaps the benefits of billions in subsidies annually.

By artificially lowering prices, they can encourage overconsumption of carbon-intense fuels, creating negative externalities through adverse environmental and health impacts. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, these add up to an amount anywhere between $2.6 to $8.1 trillion globally.

And with energy prices soaring, 2022 could be another year of billions in fossil fuel subsidies.

Charted: $5 Trillion in Fossil Fuel Subsidies Enlightening chart.

 

[DrGriz]

Energy Subsidies Down in 2020, back with a vengeance in 2022.

Each year, governments around the world pour nearly half a trillion dollars into fossil fuel (non-sustainable) subsidies. This chart breaks down a decade of fossil fuel consumption subsidies by energy source using data from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Despite growing support for the clean energy transition, the fossil fuel industry reaps the benefits of billions in subsidies annually.

By artificially lowering prices, they can encourage overconsumption of carbon-intense fuels, creating negative externalities through adverse environmental and health impacts. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, these add up to an amount anywhere between $2.6 to $8.1 trillion globally.

And with energy prices soaring, 2022 could be another year of billions in fossil fuel subsidies.

Charted: $5 Trillion in Fossil Fuel Subsidies Enlightening chart.

I understand that economic success has deep ties to the transportation sector, and that makes keeping that going a pretty critical use of public funds. It would be nice if governments could be a little more forward looking instead of trying to solve yesterday's problems when those solutions are ultimately unsustainable.

Thank you for the links!

 

[kabin]

Not sure how we got on this topic in this thread but it would be interesting to also compare EV vehicle subsidies and incentive programs around the world. I see China recently had to lower EV subsidies as their EV resale market fell off a cliff.

 

[tangible1]

Not sure how we got on this topic in this thread but it would be interesting to also compare EV vehicle subsidies and incentive programs around the world. I see China recently had to lower EV subsidies as their EV resale market fell off a cliff.

the whole subject of subsidies is a rabbit hole

 

[layhomah]

Sorry if this has been asked already and I missed it. Does any one know about the 4680 battery behaviours? Can it be charged to 100% without damaging the life of the batteries like (LFP)? Does it charge any faster (all the way to full)? And any other benefits I may not know about, please share.