4680 Model Ys?

[leaftoy]

With 400 lb reduced weight the 0-60 should be about 9% quicker so ~4.4s for the mylr. That's roughly what the $2k acceleration boost option did. (Assuming it doesn't get throttled so it can be unlocked for a fee).

Is the curb weight and 0-60 times really that proportional? Are you telling me if I carry a few generously sized passengers the car will be that much slower?

 

[inductive]

Is the curb weight and 0-60 times really that proportional? Are you telling me if I carry a few generously sized passengers the car will be that much slower?

Yes, F = m × a,. If force is constant and mass goes up then acceleration comes down proportionally.

 

[advocate8]

Yes, F = m × a,. If force is constant and mass goes up then acceleration comes down proportionally.

does that take into account aerodynamics? The effects of weight would yield a constant, but as speed climbs aerodynamics becomes much more important factor in 0-60 times.
In short, 0-60 predictions are not at all a straightforward calculation of power to weight.

 

[TEXAS-Y-P]

I dont think 400 lbs equals to 9% better acceleration. Even tho 400 lbs is 4% of the vehicle total weight I think more in the numbers of of 1 to 5% better numbers, if that.

I dont think tesla would want a rocket taking off as soon as one touches the accelerator. I have read where some idiots already slamming into other vehicles because the the acceleration was too quick.

However I feel that tesla will keep this quick acceleration to themselves and leave us with the current acceleration numbers, and eventually roll out a launch mode, or just save that whenever they decide to roll out a model Y Plaid.

The acceleration benefit will probably be there, we just wont see it on current models unless you pay more $$

 

[Smitty79]

Totally agree. As you so aptly stated my point. "As a car company grows its capital and engineering, they move downscale because they can no longer sell all of the expensive cars at good margin." The goal NOW is to grow capital and engineering skills and become the most efficient automaker in the world. I am not criticizing it, it's just not maximally accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy. Maximally accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy would be getting a $25,000 car to as many people as possible. They are following a business model which is the smartest thing to do right now for them and for their shareholders (me).

And I would submit that Tesla's approach is revolutionary. Car companies generally do not move downscale. They move upscale. Lincoln came after Ford, Cadilac came after Chevrolet, Audi came after Volkswagen, even Genesis came after Hyundai. They get started with the masses and establish their name and then look to increase their margins with a better quality vehicle.

What Tesla needs to be aware of is the approaching competition. As I said here before, when you can get a Kia EV6 crossover SUV with a 240-mile range which, with the $7500 rebate (end of the year, of course), will be $28,800 out the door including tax and license, Tesla might not win the race to the bottom, unless of course, Musk convinces the bean counters to lower the prices and profits on all of his cars, as a result of factory and production efficiencies. I think not. Especially when your entry-level vehicle is $45,000. Eventually, the expensive market is going to be satiated. Granted Tesla has FSD and a national network, but all that the teens I see at the drive-through and other young adults want, is to own a Tesla, and at their wages, it ain't gonna happen for a long time, or they will settle for whoever else has an EV in their price range.

I don't agree. At least in the US, Tesla would go broke making $25k car right now. The cost of production and design, relative to price would not be profitable. China is different. The cost of everything there is less. Land, machinery, labor, parts... are all cheaper. The percent of people who can afford a Dual Motor 3/Y is also much much lower. This is why they are already down scale there, with the Model Y SR. The only way to get to their goal is to make money and achieve economies of scale. I expect that their next factory will be a second location in China, as China is at sweet spot of manufacturing capability and low cost. This will enable the $25k car.

 

[DrGriz]

It seems to me that one of the drivers of widespread adoption will be the availability of charging infrastructure. There are lots of places where chargers are a long way apart in terms of travel time. Americans especially are sensitive to this, and outside of major urban centers the infrastructure just isn't there. In short, range anxiety.

Supercharger stations don't build themselves, and they have to be pretty expensive up front. I don't know, but I imagine the capital that Tesla uses to build out the system comes from the high margins on the expensive models. Once the system is built out, and range and battery size is less of an issue, the less expensive models will make more sense to a greater number of people.

Perhaps someone knows these details better. I have not read widely so just my opinion/WAG.

 

[tangible1]

It seems to me that one of the drivers of widespread adoption will be the availability of charging infrastructure. There are lots of places where chargers are a long way apart in terms of travel time. Americans especially are sensitive to this, and outside of major urban centers the infrastructure just isn't there. In short, range anxiety.

Supercharger stations don't build themselves, and they have to be pretty expensive up front. I don't know, but I imagine the capital that Tesla uses to build out the system comes from the high margins on the expensive models. Once the system is built out, and range and battery size is less of an issue, the less expensive models will make more sense to a greater number of people.

Perhaps someone knows these details better. I have not read widely so just my opinion/WAG.

3rd Party Charging infrastructure has been a difficult bet for private firms. People can charge at home so the use case is intermittent, and commercial use is negligible.
This is unlike ICE infrastructure, which people and commercial users require, don't do at home, and so the business volume is more consistent.
It will change, but for now, Government and Electric Utilities (also an arm of govt) are likely the only real option to build out infrastructure.

 

[DrGriz]

3rd Party Charging infrastructure has been a difficult bet for private firms. People can charge at home so the use case is intermittent, and commercial use is negligible.
This is unlike ICE infrastructure, which people and commercial users require, don't do at home, and so the business volume is more consistent.
It will change, but for now, Government and Electric Utilities (also an arm of govt) are likely the only real option to build out infrastructure.

Tesla has really led the way for reliable DC charging, and I hope they continue to expand. Right now you can drive from Boise to Coeur 'de Alene, 378 miles, without passing a supercharger unless you go 1/3 of the way across Oregon and Washington adding hundreds of miles.

I agree that Government will have to take up charging infrastructure as well. Tesla can't do it all.

I am glad that my model Y will have CCS capability.

 

[tangible1]

Tesla has really led the way for reliable DC charging, and I hope they continue to expand. Right now you can drive from Boise to Coeur 'de Alene, 378 miles, without passing a supercharger unless you go 1/3 of the way across Oregon and Washington adding hundreds of miles.

I agree that Government will have to take up charging infrastructure as well. Tesla can't do it all.

I am glad that my model Y will have CCS capability.

Tesla led the way because they HAD TO. No one was going to step in and do it without subsidies or direct business volume.
So it was chicken & egg for Tesla. They couldn't sell cars without infrastructure, couldn't get infrastructure w/o cars to use it.

Now, they intend to make it a profit center - as they should - but Elon won't do it without a govt subsidy.
He's a master at milking government. All his businesses rely on government for a big slice of revenue.

 

[kabin]

It seems to me that one of the drivers of widespread adoption will be the availability of charging infrastructure. There are lots of places where chargers are a long way apart in terms of travel time. Americans especially are sensitive to this, and outside of major urban centers the infrastructure just isn't there. In short, range anxiety.

Supercharger stations don't build themselves, and they have to be pretty expensive up front. I don't know, but I imagine the capital that Tesla uses to build out the system comes from the high margins on the expensive models. Once the system is built out, and range and battery size is less of an issue, the less expensive models will make more sense to a greater number of people.

Perhaps someone knows these details better. I have not read widely so just my opinion/WAG.

Sounds like there's no shortage of 3rd parties (gas stations, convenience stores) wanting a piece of the EV charging biz. It will be interesting to see if price gouging takes off. BP and others expect more profits from EV charging than pumping gas.

I don't look forward to getting juiced by that crowd. No pun intended.

 

[DrGriz]

Sounds like there's no shortage of 3rd parties (gas stations, convenience stores) wanting a piece of the EV charging biz. It will be interesting to see if price gouging takes off. BP and others expect more profits from EV charging than pumping gas.

I don't look forward to getting juiced by that crowd. No pun intended.

I have read that the payoff for installing a DC charger is far longer (5 years IIRC) than installing a gas pump. It takes deep pockets and a willingness to look far forward. It's coming, but it will be a while before there's a charger system in place to flip us to majority EV use.

 

[Brolan]

The market will regulate the price of EV charging like everything else. It may be expensive at first, then everyone will rush in on the bonanza and the competition will bring the prices down to earth.

 

[tangible1]

The market will regulate the price of EV charging like everything else. It may be expensive at first, then everyone will rush in on the bonanza and the competition will bring the prices down to earth.

Maybe....or maybe not.
With increased demand the grid will get stressed, and calls for further investment or additional taxes to pay for expansion will come.
The national grid suffers from a lack of investment for the last 30+ years and the shuttering of Nuclear power plants (which are as green as you get, but..)

California just proposed a new tax on Solar panels so that they 'pay their fair share' despite using less of the grid.
California is also floating the idea of additional taxes on EV's so that they 'pay their fair share' for road systems (which are funded by gas taxes EV's don't pay).

Either way, it will be a protracted conversion process and the supposed free lunches of EV's and Solar are going to get pressured.

 

[DrGriz]

The market will regulate the price of EV charging like everything else. It may be expensive at first, then everyone will rush in on the bonanza and the competition will bring the prices down to earth.

The market has not brought cable internet to my neighborhood yet, and there are no plans despite incentives for that ever to happen. Thank goodness for Starlink or I would not be writing this right now.

There are things the "market" just sucks at.

Electricity came very slowly to my neck of the woods. It took government incentives and taxpayer investment for rural electrification to happen long after it occurred in urban America.

 

[preilly44]

Now, they intend to make it a profit center - as they should - but Elon won't do it without a govt subsidy.
He's a master at milking government. All his businesses rely on government for a big slice of revenue.

I've read this before, but how is Space-X, Neuro-Link, the Boring Company and Paypal milking the gov? If Space-X gets a gov contract, that's not milking them, they actually probably saved the government hundreds of millions over the years.

Not trying to be rude, I just want to know what I'm missing.

 

[DrGriz]

Maybe....or maybe not.
With increased demand the grid will get stressed, and calls for further investment or additional taxes to pay for expansion will come.
The national grid suffers from a lack of investment for the last 30+ years and the shuttering of Nuclear power plants (which are as green as you get, but..)

California just proposed a new tax on Solar panels so that they 'pay their fair share' despite using less of the grid.
California is also floating the idea of additional taxes on EV's so that they 'pay their fair share' for road systems (which are funded by gas taxes EV's don't pay).

Either way, it will be a protracted conversion process and the supposed free lunches of EV's and Solar are going to get pressured.

If maybe we could share some of the lunch the fossil fuel industry gets:

Fact Sheet | Fossil Fuel Subsidies: A Closer Look at Tax Breaks and Societal Costs (2019) | White Papers | EESI

www.eesi.org

 

[RoBoRaT]

The line is wherever Musk's bean counters say it is. If it involves shipping costs, as he said it would, it is probably geographic. The Rockies makes a nice dividing line. Considering the number of orders from CA, that would probably equalize volume as well, if you don't count those 12 cars going to Oklahoma.

With the current demand, volume is going to be intense irrespective of location.

However,
Breaking
My son just put $2k down on a Kia EV6 crossover SUV with a 240-mile range which, with the $7500 rebate (end of the year, of course), will be $28,800 out the door including tax and license.

There was a 2018 Model 3 sitting on the same lot with 60k miles on it, selling for $66,000. The salesperson tried sliding the card in the door panel gap to open it. Hee....hee.

Tesla needs to be looking into the rearview mirror. This party isn't going to last forever.

$28.8K EV6 - where is this?
Don't EV6's start at $40.9K...

My daughter (looking to trade ICE car to EV) has a 2018 Elantra she bought $21K in Sep 2017 now at 20K miles got offered $21K. Only $9K more for a new EV6 if rebates and credits get it down to $30K.

 

[NYMY]

I have read that the payoff for installing a DC charger is far longer (5 years IIRC) than installing a gas pump. It takes deep pockets and a willingness to look far forward. It's coming, but it will be a while before there's a charger system in place to flip us to majority EV use.

I would think the economics will be different. More restaurants will have them (so McDonalds not 7-11). People will figure out the economics…

 

[tangible1]

If maybe we could share some of the lunch the fossil fuel industry gets:

Fact Sheet | Fossil Fuel Subsidies: A Closer Look at Tax Breaks and Societal Costs (2019) | White Papers | EESI

www.eesi.org

Unlikely to unwind 100 years of subsidies.
The fossil fuel industry made investment decisions based on them, and still have deep pockets to protect their investment decisions made under current 'rules'.

 

[tangible1]

I've read this before, but how is Space-X, Neuro-Link, the Boring Company and Paypal milking the gov? If Space-X gets a gov contract, that's not milking them, they actually probably saved the government hundreds of millions over the years.

Not trying to be rude, I just want to know what I'm missing.

No worries.

Space-X gets 90% of it's revenue from Governmnt contracts - DoD, NASA, etc.
Neuro-Link gets research grants from NIH, NSF, etc
Boring Company exclusively gets it's contracts from government - cities, states, etc
Tesla gets 300M+ per quarter from selling Carbon Credits that car manufacturers are required to buy to offset their carbon footprint.

None of this is a secret. It's just Elon is very good at identifying and acquiring it.

Elon hasn't been associated with PayPal for a decade or more.
In fact, Peter Thiel fired Elon from PayPal.