60KWh battery for the Bolt... ¿maybe to big for base model 3?

[Lonnie123]

At the end of the day, GM is likely to use a couple of items in marketing this to a new customer segment they have been struggling with. First to market with a long-range BEV will be prime. Will they talk about battery capacity? Probably not. EPA range, definitely.
Once the 3 is unveiled in a few short weeks (!), we will see how Tesla positions its own competitive advantages: technology (AP with more hardware capabilities?), supercharger network (speed of charge is key here, no one touches SCs) and probably damn good looks.
No matter what the logic and numbers states, range and the Supercharger network is huge when selling to non-EV fans. Range anxiety is still a thing out there: just look at the questions people ask you about your EV if you have one.

Elon hates "marketing" but I could see them using some lingo to differentiate their product (maybe even without even using numbers). Things like:

- The only EV capable of long distance, single day travel

or

- The only EV capable of ____ miles in a single day

As a 30 second voice over for a commercial it could be: "The Tesla Model 3. Finally, the affordable EV everyone has been waiting for that truly does it all. With up to 280 miles of range and a 40 minute charge time to 200 miles using the only nation wide hyper speed Super Charging network, its the only EV that can handle every situation you demand out of your car. Road trips are not only a reality, but a joy to do thanks to Teslas Auto Pilot. 5 star safety, blah, blah, blah..."

 

[e-FTW]

You either watch too much TV, or you should be in marketing. :biggrin:

 

[Quant]

Actually, as a marketing or advertising person, I would grade that as an E. A complete fail !

 

[e-FTW]

At the end of the day, GM is likely to use a couple of items in marketing this to a new customer segment they have been struggling with. First to market with a long-range BEV will be prime. Will they talk about battery capacity? Probably not. EPA range, definitely.
Once the 3 is unveiled in a few short weeks (!), we will see how Tesla positions its own competitive advantages: technology (AP with more hardware capabilities?), supercharger network (speed of charge is key here, no one touches SCs) and probably damn good looks.
No matter what the logic and numbers states, range and the Supercharger network is huge when selling to non-EV fans. Range anxiety is still a thing out there: just look at the questions people ask you about your EV if you have one.

Almost forgot: no-way the 3 will take 7 seconds to get to 60mph.

 

[pmadflyer]

Actually, as a marketing or advertising person, I would grade that as an E. A complete fail !

"The world's best car happens to be electric.
...
Model 3
...
Go to teslamotors.com to create yours."

You have to admit, that's gotta be at least D material. :tongue:

 

[Quant]

"The world's best car happens to be electric.
...
Model 3
...
Go to teslamotors.com to create yours."

You have to admit, that's gotta be at least D material. :tongue:

Ok, you seem like a nice guy...so okay you get a D!!

From my POV, I assume the 3 will have great styling, looks, best in range, best in acceleration and performance, best in EV warranty and come with the SuperCharger network.

Given the above, plus a luxury brand that has a decent following in NA and Europe, entry level pricing in the US in the $30's and LEASING ( in this price band it will be VERY COMPELLINGLY for small business owners and those working for themselves )at that purchase price. This will result in Pent up demand in NA, Europe, and production ramp up will result in supply constraints, and so I see NO Tesla advertising media buys until at least 2019.

It would be waste of $. Elon will not throw those $ away.

Just the fact that there will be a year or longer wait time to get a Model 3, and seeing other Model 3 's on the road in 2018, will be sufficient to keep demand pull for a luxury brand priced starting in the $30's, booked solid for at least the first 2-3 years.

And, there will in all likelihood, be a crossover variant following within 12-18 months of the March '16 launch. Compelling product line and product line differentiation ( Roadster, S, X, 3, Y) Gigafactory, and a fast growing Supercharger network will keep Tesla in a supply constrained situation through 2020. I am willing to bet on it.

 

[igotzzoom]

Tesla will have to spend next to nothing in traditional marketing and advertising dollars for years to come, if ever. The reason being is they have fawning sycophants in the media that hang on Elon's every word. No disrespect to Mr. Musk or Tesla. That, and I think the general public's awareness of the company is enough that the word will get out through news reports, word-of-mouth and friend/neighbor demo drives.

The closest analogue I can draw is Apple. True, they do some TV advertising, but at least in terms of the iPhone, most of that is piggybacked with the respective carrier (i.e. Verizon, Spring, AT&T, etc.)

 

[Grendal]

In my opinion, Tesla certainly does not have to put a battery of at least 60kWh in the Model 3 if a slightly smaller battery can give the Model 3 a real world range value of over 200 miles.

Sorry for the 20 day delay in the response, but I think you're missing one important factor that will drive the battery pack size up a bit: Supercharging. There is a definite advantage to a larger pack in terms of Supercharging. Also Elon, at one point, said he thought 200 miles is a little low. So I'll stick with the thought that Tesla will push for 60 kWh pack for the Model 3. If not, it will be very close to that.

 

[Red Sage]

but the Model S 60 with same energy capacity have 208 mil ¿what's wrong here? ¿Much more efficient Tesla technology? ¿better aero?

What's wrong here is that General Motors, as well as the rest of the traditional automobile industry, is going with low output permanent magnet electric motors in their EVs instead of the three phase alternating current induction design that Tesla Motors chose.

What's wrong here is that a 60 kWh Capacity should allow for a 300+ HP electric motor, but GM will be using a 200 HP unit instead (though better than Spark EV at 140 HP), that has 266 lb-ft torque (much less than the Spark EV at 400 lb-ft).

What's wrong here is that it has already been proven that cutting back on HP for a given Capacity does NOT significantly increase fully electric range at all... Though it does allow for adapting existing, off-the-shelf transmissions to complete a drivetrain, instead of creating a new one from scratch that is specific to the platform.

Compare the specifications for the Toyota RAV4 EV versus Tesla Model S 40 to see how the Model ≡ will surpass the BOLT.

 

[Lonnie123]

Actually, as a marketing or advertising person, I would grade that as an E. A complete fail !

As a student of the George Carlin school for advertising, with a minor in Bill Hicks... Thank you. That is a high honor

 

[Tesloid]

Nobody seems to be looking at the base battery pack issue from the economics angle.

Iirc, JB was quoted on an insiveevs article like 3 years ago, that the battery pack costs for a Model S made up 25% or less of the total cost. Now, I'm not sure if he was referring to the production cost or final cost, but let's make a very conservative assumption of final cost. So, a Model S 60 going at $60K would imply a battery cost of $15K or less. This in turn implies a unit cost of $250/kWh. Now remember, this was 3 years ago. A conservative estimation for today's costs would be around the $220/kWh range. Tesla claims the Gigafactory's goal is to reduce battery pack costs by 30%. That implies a goal of $154/kWh cost of production.

Now, assuming that Tesla is looking to retain the same battery cost ratio of 25% to total cost (which is again conservative), we can see that their max budget for a battery pack on the Base Model 3 (at $35,000 price point) would be around $8,750. That would imply a limitation to 56.8kWh pack or less, at $154/kWh production rates. This basically means a 55kWh pack is most likely on the base model.

I have gone into the details of performance goals for the base Model 3 in another thread, where I calculated that a 55kWh pack is more then enough to provide the base model 3 a power output of 250hp, which gives it a 0-60 of 5.3s to 5.5s (assuming a curb weight of 3,600 lbs & Cd=0.2). This beats out a 2016 BMW 328i in both price and performance, and that isn't even BMW's base model for the 3-series. Going any higher on the base Model 3 specs is totally unnecessary for Tesla, that just eats into their profit margins.

Every which way you look at it, the Model 3-55 seems to be the most realistic expectation for the base model. And, a Model 3-P70D seems to be the realistic flagship model (the BMW M3 killer).

- - - Updated - - -

But again, Elon has had a tendency to push performance boundaries in the past, to send a clear message that Electric vehicles are undeniably superior to ICE cars. Now, if he is still pushing that message with Model 3, then we might see a base Model 3-60 albeit at lower profit margins for Tesla in the short term.

 

[Model 3]

A conservative estimation for today's costs would be around the $220/kWh range.

Just the other day I read an article (maybe in the GF thread?) that stated that the pack cost was about $200/kWh today. If the 30% reduction should go on the hole pack - and not just on cell prices - we are talking about $140/kWh at pack level. If this is right we are at 62.5kWh pack (or less).

And remember that the 30% was the minimum, they hope to reduce the cost by up to 50%.

 

[Tesloid]

Agreed. You make a good point. I did read about the $200/kWh thing recently, but totally forgot about it.

On the Gigafactory effects, though... 50% reductions will probably be seen by 2020/21. So, I'd imagine that at least the first 3 years of Model 3 sales will have packs that would cost around $140/kWh. Base Model being a 3-60 seems more likely, then! :love:

 

[Model 3]

On the Gigafactory effects, though... 50% reductions will probably be seen by 2020/21.

Yes, I'm well aware of that, so I just mentioned it and did not count it in.