About time to unveil the D and something else

[shawk]

S85D performance estimate

Estimated performance and torque curves for a Tesla S AWD.
This assumes Tesla will use the current S motor and transaxle for the rear and the motor and transaxle they build for the Toyota RAV4 for the front axle.
This is the arrangement shown for the bare chassis picture of the Model X.

Source Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): The 3 Tesla Secrets - Seeking Alpha

 

[SteveG3]

Tesla to show Model 3, new sedan version Oct. 9: report

MARKETWATCH 1:41 PM ET 10/3/14
Tesla Motors Inc.(TSLA) will unveil its Model 3, the mass-market car, and new versions of the Model S sedan at the event Oct. 9, analyst Trip Chowdhry withGlobal Equities Research said in a note Friday. It is no coincidence the event is to take place in the Los Angeles area rather the San Francisco Bay Area, where the electric-car maker is headquartered: Tesla's top designer "spends almost 90% of this time in the LA Design Center," Chowdhry said. Tesla earlier Friday said the event was scheduled for 7 p.m. at theHawthorne airport. By showing a Model 3 prototype Tesla is also hoping to garner more attention from potential "gigafactory" investors, he added. The new Model S versions would have all-wheel drive and semi-autonomous driver-assistance system, which would be positive for car technology company MobileEye Technologies

Tesla to show Model 3, new sedan version Oct. 9: report - MarketWatch

Though Chowdry, the analyst, gave a decent line of reasoning as to why Tesla might show the Model 3 (to help convince potential gigafactory investors) I don't take his report seriously, as,

1) just before the GF announcement he was saying Tesla was going to announce a second GF in 2014 and probably a third in 2015, and

2) in today's note, the potential partners he suggests Tesla is trying to persuade (LG Chem, Sanyo, and Apple) are almost as improbable as GF1 partners as the comment about 2 more GFs announced by 2015. Tesla is indeed looking to add other partners to GF1, but these are existing component suppliers of Panasonic's battery business- far smaller players than Apple, etc.

I have no idea what motivates Chowdry, but I don't take what he writes for much at all.

 

[brianman]

An early alpha of the Model 3 would make some sense, given that they've already promised to have it at next year's Detroit Auto Show. I wonder if they'll take deposits....

That would be huge and I will also be double disappointed to not have an invite as a Model 3 has always been the car I wanted (well, we'll see I guess)

Agreed. As a Sig S, I am hoping that I'd be invited to the Model 3 reveal event so that I can queue in the Sig reservation line.

Assuming Tesla doesn't value Model X Sig reservation holders more highly than Roadster or Model S Sig owners, that suggests they won't be taking deposits on Model 3 just yet.

 

[Grendal]

Are you familiar with Steve Jobs and his famous keynotes? He always said "one more thing" at the end, and the "one more thing" was much bigger than the headline event. So much so, that the "one more thing" was actually the news worthy item. The same is true here. The "something else" alluded to by Elon is going to be bigger than the D announcement. The something else, given that Model X sig holders are receiving an invite, is clearly relating to the Model X. The event is being held at an airport, so I'm sure this will involve driving demos. Model X is probably farther along than any of us know.

You don't invite Model X sig reservation holders across the country to try and sell them an AWD Model S. That is going to piss off the people you invited. The D is actually going to be the least important aspect of this news conference.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm pretty sure I'm convinced that the new Model X will be shown. I didn't know about the Apple/Jobs keynotes. I am now schooled. Thanks TMC.

 

[GoBlue88]

I just received an e-mail invite to this event from Tesla. Oct. 9th, 7pm, Hawthorne Airport.

 

[Grendal]

Tesla to show Model 3, new sedan version Oct. 9: report

Tesla to show Model 3, new sedan version Oct. 9: report - MarketWatch

I've been convinced that Elon is likely to show off the new Model X as the "something else", but logic says that there is little chance that there will be a Model III reveal. You don't showcase a whole new model when you have 20K reservation holders for the Model X waiting to see the final version and costs of the car they have been waiting two years for. Elon is smart and that strikes me as a bad business move. You start production of the Model X and then you bring out the Model III. That just makes good business sense.

 

[Chris TX]

I wonder what the Signature payment would be for the Model III. Seeing as how the S and X were $40k and the target price is $40k or so, surely it would be lower. Maybe?

 

[SCDrJ]

Neither of the above cars use an in-wheel motor. What they and the C-X75 and a few other do have is one motor per wheel, mounted inboard on the frame and driving the wheel through a conventional half-shaft.

I do think that one motor per wheel is the future - initially for supercars, eventually for everything else.

Not only does it provide the ultimate all wheel drive and traction control, but it also allows dynamic handling adjustments as Honda is exploring in the RLX Hybrid (individual small motors for the rear wheels,) as well as allowing stability control by adding power as well as/instead of subtracting power and regenerative braking with ABS control for low traction environments.
Walter

If one looks at the patents mentioned for the AWD electric vehicle control system that Tesla filed, there were schematics for both a two-motor (one front and one rear), as well as a three-motor (two at one axle and one at the other) version.

 

[RDoc]

Well, um, if you want to take Elon's tweets very literally, he did say he was glad he didn't mention the other LETTER.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/517509858971504640

So, you could presume he wasn't talking about the number 3.

Well I can PROVE it's the Model 3. Just consider this:

0 - A
1 - B
2 - C
3 - D

q.e.d.

 

[gjunky]

We've been talking about showing the X or the 3 but with the addition of the D version of the X, what if they are showing S-3-X?
Then they can say they brought sex back

 

[shivasmith]

I just received an e-mail invite to this event from Tesla. Oct. 9th, 7pm, Hawthorne Airport.

October 9th happens to be the day of my Tesla Fremont Factory Tour!... can't wait!

 

[PopSmith]

Well, um, if you want to take Elon's tweets very literally, he did say he was glad he didn't mention the other LETTER.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/517509858971504640

So, you could presume he wasn't talking about the number 3.

True, although I was basing that off the MarketWatch "article". I don't really believe a prototype Model 3 will be revealed, yet. Since Elon specifically said "other letter", that would lean more towards a Model X beta reveal. I don't see them showing Model 3 as the "something else" given that the teaser shows a Model S-esk front end and the "D" is written in Model S font.

Since he said "Glad I didn't mention the other letter!", it could be "A" for "Assist". The "something else" could be the freeway-use autopilot Elon has mentioned before. It might not be quite good enough for "official" release for a couple years but it might be at a stage where Tesla feels comfortable showing it off (hence a large open area of a runway).

 

[anticitizen13.7]

This is obviously a pun in the direction of the late Steve Jobs.
The D is for Dual-drive, and "the other letter" is the X Beta. Far to many fan and press invites for it NOT to be the X. And some sensor tech. thrown in for good measure.
This is Elon style !

This is exactly what I've been saying. The similarities to "one more thing" cannot be ignored in the context of Silicon Valley culture!

 

[MartinAustin]

Tesla to show Model 3, new sedan version Oct. 9: report

MARKETWATCH 1:41 PM ET 10/3/14
Tesla Motors Inc.(TSLA) will unveil its Model 3, the mass-market car, and new versions of the Model S sedan at the event Oct. 9, analyst Trip Chowdhry withGlobal Equities Research said in a note Friday. It is no coincidence the event is to take place in the Los Angeles area rather the San Francisco Bay Area, where the electric-car maker is headquartered: Tesla's top designer "spends almost 90% of this time in the LA Design Center," Chowdhry said. Tesla earlier Friday said the event was scheduled for 7 p.m. at theHawthorne airport. By showing a Model 3 prototype Tesla is also hoping to garner more attention from potential "gigafactory" investors, he added. The new Model S versions would have all-wheel drive and semi-autonomous driver-assistance system, which would be positive for car technology company MobileEye Technologies

Tesla to show Model 3, new sedan version Oct. 9: report - MarketWatch

You don't pre-empt the marketing department of a car company that is keeping its cards close to its chest so it can surprise the public, unless you really know what is going on.

I think the reputation of this guy Trip Chowdhry, which is already on thin ice... will suffer some serious hurt if Tesla doesn't show the Model 3.

That said, I believe the Model X was first shown in February 2012, and won't be delivered until around Q2 2015. If the Model 3 gets delivered in Q2 of 2017 we would already have seen it in February 2014 by the same timescale. Perhaps it is time to preview it. Perhaps an ordering page will begin! Perhaps the attendees who have ordered Model X will get a behind-closed-doors look at the Alpha.

I will certainly be sitting with my laptop open at Tesla Motors | Premium Electric Vehicles during the event.

 

[brianman]

Well I can PROVE it's the Model 3. Just consider this:
0 - A
1 - B
2 - C
3 - D
q.e.d.

Because everybody calls the Roadster "A", the Model S "B", and the Model X "C"? Why didn't I see it til now?! Oh wait...

/confused

- - - Updated - - -

I think the reputation of this guy Trip Chowdhry, which is already on thin ice... will suffer some serious hurt if Tesla doesn't show the Model 3.

1. Analyst says "X".
2. Reality produces "something other than X".
3. Nothing interesting happens correlating 1 and 2.
4. Go to step 1.

Analysts can spin any theory they want. "It's just a theory." It's like weather forecasters -- except usually forecasters have some technology feeding data like radar.

 

[smf72]

For what it's worth I just saw this post : http://www.theverge.com/2014/10/3/6...eil-its-first-self-driving-features-next-week following closely as my Grey P85+ Loaded if finishing detail in Milford CT, could be one for grabs if this is truly AWD!!!!!!!

 

[JRP3]

I believe my post said "I think", so the answer to your question is yes. The cost of production is falling as is the cost of batteries. Many of the P85+ suspension components have already been silently integrated into the less expensive P85. Seems like the logical path if Tesla can hold its margins.

What Tesla does not want to do, in my humble opinion, is announce a $150,000 super car. The media spin will be terrible. Tesla is trying to get to an affordable vehicle, so it would make no sense to launch an even more expensive Model S variant. Again, just my opinion. I think if there is an added cost for the AWD, it will be small.

Just because Tesla is eventually going to introduce an affordable EV does not mean they should eat the cost and miss out on the potential profits of a desirable upgrade that many would willingly pay for. Bad business decision and bad marketing. They won't announce a $150K super car, they'll announce an AWD version of the P with a 5-10K premium.

Regarding Chowdhry's "Model 3" reveal, not a chance.

 

[Nubo]

I've been convinced that Elon is likely to show off the new Model X as the "something else", but logic says that there is little chance that there will be a Model III reveal. You don't showcase a whole new model when you have 20K reservation holders for the Model X waiting to see the final version and costs of the car they have been waiting two years for. Elon is smart and that strikes me as a bad business move. You start production of the Model X and then you bring out the Model III. That just makes good business sense.

Yeah, you can't really debut Model 3 until Model X is realized. To do so would invite serious accusations of vaporware. And rightfully so.

 

[eRandall38]

Are a lot of people getting invites to the event? I just got an invite and can bring 3 people with me. I am not a sig owner, not an X reservation holder, although I have expressed interest. I just had my MS delivered on Tuesday. Does it seem they are inviting a lot of people then?

 

[iadbound]

I think the reputation of this guy Trip Chowdhry, which is already on thin ice... will suffer some serious hurt if Tesla doesn't show the Model 3.

I doubt his reputation will be tarnished if they don't show the Model ≡. After all, you have to have a reputation to start with before you can tarnish it.:wink: In all seriousness, most readers won't remember the article, who wrote it, or what was wrong about it. What's matters these days is getting clicks. Accuracy is not at a premium.