About time to unveil the D and something else

[HankLloydRight]

The Falcon/Gullwing doors are problematic for many drivers in "Old Europe" where most underground parking lots have super low ceilings (max height allowed <2 meters).
For example, in Paris and around, there are many parkings where opening my MS trunk door will hit some structures (electrical, plumbing) with the annoying "clunk" and alarm sounds.

You may enter the parking with the X but then you'll have to exit through the windows ....

The Falcon doors are only on the rear doors. The front doors are normal.

 

[HankLloydRight]

And I do believe the autonomous driving will be available in Model X next year. Tesla is working with Mobile Eye so it will get done.

Elon himself said Autonomous Driving is at least 5-6 years away. Driver Assist ala Mobile-eye is not AD.

 

[Joel]

Elon himself said Autonomous Driving is at least 5-6 years away. Driver Assist ala Mobile-eye is not AD.

You are correct. That was a typo. Auto pilot (on ramp off ramp) will be available at launch with Model X,

 

[anticitizen13.7]

+1 - agree. All of us typically get too excited, then analysts who read the forum, get too excited, too - and we all get disappointed after the event. I think for all our blood pressure and for our TSLA portfolios it's best to be realistic: AWD + Software V.6 with some really cool driver assist features is more than enough good news for me.

I don't think it's the shareholders who would be dissatisfied… it would infuriate Model X reservation holders who have waited an extra year and were sent an invite to a major event with a "something else" hint.

 

[Vitaman]

After reading every post on this thread, there is a solid consensus that an all wheel drive Model S will be announced.
If so, what are your thoughts as to its performance capabilities?
Could it be one of the safer, longer tire wearing, but slower models in the line up?
Or is it a given that it's 0-60 times will be at least as good as a P85+?

 

[Joel]

There's a lot of excitement on this thread and I think the conversation around these mysterious announcements (ie., think back on last year's trilogy) tends to go toward what is possible but not what is realistic.

Anyway, my vote is for a dual motor Model S (which there will be a 0-60mph demo for at the Hawthorne Airport on Oct 9th) and for Driver Assist features to be explained more fully.

I think the Model X reveal would be best served as a separate event.

I also think the Model 3 reveal would be best at a separate event as well (maximum exposure/publicity).

I agree.

 

[JRP3]

After reading every post on this thread, there is a solid consensus that an all wheel drive Model S will be announced.
If so, what are your thoughts as to its performance capabilities?
Could it be one of the safer, longer tire wearing, but slower models in the line up?
Or is it a given that it's 0-60 times will be at least as good as a P85+?

It will be faster since the current 0-60 times are traction limited.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I don't think it's the shareholders who would be dissatisfied… it would infuriate Model X reservation holders who have waited an extra year and were sent an invite to a major event with a "something else" hint.

I am convinced that the 'and something else' is meant as an understatement, 100% sure it's the final Model X. By focussing on the 'D' in the announcement, Tesla is creating mystery and excitement. D (Dual Drive) for the Model S is absolutely important for Tesla, but on its own doesn't merit a big official event and so much mystery in the approach to the unveiling. The fact that Model X Sig-reservation holders were invited only reinforces that opinion; it would be a slap in their face if it was the presentation of just a Dual Drive Model S. Are they supposed to drop their reservation for Model X and buy a Model S instead?! Elon also said that revealing the other letter would have spoiled the surprise. Which letter would do that, other than X?

 

[JST]

After reading every post on this thread, there is a solid consensus that an all wheel drive Model S will be announced.
If so, what are your thoughts as to its performance capabilities?
Could it be one of the safer, longer tire wearing, but slower models in the line up?
Or is it a given that it's 0-60 times will be at least as good as a P85+?

It's certainly possible that AWD would be offered on multiple models.

If the pic up thread is to be believed, we know there will be a P version, but that doesn't exclude the possibility of an S85D or even an S60D. They'll have to make multiple models for the X, in any event, since that will apparently now be AWD only.

My WAG is that the D will only be available on 85 models, but that you'll be able to get it in both P and S flavors. Offering it on the P only would leave money on the table from people in northern climes that want AWD but don't need the P capability.

But a lot of this depends on how they can price it. It may be expensive enough that it only makes sense as a limited take rate adjunct to the P.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I am convinced that the 'and something else' is meant as an understatement, 100% sure it's the final Model X. By focussing on the 'D' in the announcement, Tesla is creating mystery and excitement. D (Dual Drive) for the Model S is absolutely important for Tesla, but on its own doesn't merit a big official event and so much mystery in the approach to the unveiling. The fact that Model X Sig-reservation holders were invited only reinforces that opinion; it would be a slap in their face if it was the presentation of just a Dual Drive Model S. Are they supposed to drop their reservation for Model X and buy a Model S instead?! Elon also said that revealing the other letter would have spoiled the surprise. Which letter would do that, other than X?

Doesn't have to be the final Model X. Just the Beta will do, implying that they have what they think is the right Model X, but can do minor tweaks based on feedback at the event. AWD is a technical key for the X, and they're already building the S and don' t want people waiting too lobg, so launching AWD S and the X Beta at the same time makes sense. (Again: AWD BEV!)

Elon Musk mentioned the other letter in the context of people making crude comments, so think crude.

 

[Zaxxon]

There is zero chance of a 'final' Model X. Per the quarterly report, betas will be on the road in Q1. Showing a beta at this event would already be on the front end of possible-and that's before translating to Tesla Time.

 

[Vger]

There is zero chance of a 'final' Model X. Per the quarterly report, betas will be on the road in Q1. Showing a beta at this event would already be on the front end of possible-and that's before translating to Tesla Time.

Could still even be alphas, if they are fairly happy with where they stand. Unlike Model S, they are building the alphs and beta themselves on their own line, so we should be closer to final form earlier on.

 

[Zaxxon]

Agree.

 

[jkliu47]

I think it's a major announcement with a big reveal.

Why else would I (only a regular S85 owner) and my friend (a non-owner who only requested a test drive a year ago and didn't signed on to anything) both get invites?

 

[tom66]

The development process is:

Concept (So far what has been seen of X)
Alpha (Figure out the basics - Tesla should have finished this)
Beta (Design intent - Production testing. Design unlikely to change at this point)
Beta-Production (Running production line to test)
Production (Shipped to customers)

My guess, Beta X will be shown with no changes to production (aside from any internal electronic or invisible design/software changes.)

 

[WSE51]

Grand reveal of Model X alphas is my prediction

I agree with Right_Said_Fred. I've been to the other announcements held at Hawthorne. Elon likes movement to illustrate the announcement. At the Supercharger unveiling, four Model S cars drove up in a line and plugged into the Superchargers. At the battery swap announcement, two cars drove to the swap-bay while an ICE on the screen was filled with gasoline. I was not at the Model S or the Model X unveilings, but from the videos, I saw that in each case the cars were driven onto the stage. In all four cases, there was a grand movement showing the crowd something they had never seen before.

Given that a Model S with two wheel drive and one with 4WD will look identical from the outside, if all the happens is that a 85D or P85D drives onto the stage that is going to be a let-down.

I think it will be a Steve Jobs-like "oh, and one more thing" and then several Model X alphas or betas will drive onto the stage. That ought to drive the crowd wild with glee, and would be an event worthy of drawing so much attention to.

Quote Originally Posted by Right_Said_Fred View Post
I am convinced that the 'and something else' is meant as an understatement, 100% sure it's the final Model X. By focussing on the 'D' in the announcement, Tesla is creating mystery and excitement. D (Dual Drive) for the Model S is absolutely important for Tesla, but on its own doesn't merit a big official event and so much mystery in the approach to the unveiling. The fact that Model X Sig-reservation holders were invited only reinforces that opinion; it would be a slap in their face if it was the presentation of just a Dual Drive Model S. Are they supposed to drop their reservation for Model X and buy a Model S instead?! Elon also said that revealing the other letter would have spoiled the surprise. Which letter would do that, other than X?

 

[HankLloydRight]

You are correct. That was a typo. Auto pilot (on ramp off ramp) will be available at launch with Model X,

LOL. Nope. Not going to happen for several years. The technology is close, but not for production vehicles. The laws, regulations, and insurance industries are going to take years to catch up before they allow self-driving cars on the highways in any real production cars. California is only now issuing permits to test a limited number of AD vehicles.

Just read this article for what The Mighty and Powerful Elon has to say about it: Elon Musk says self-driving car technology still has another 5 to 6 years to go | The Verge
You really think even on-ramp-to-off-ramp is ready for production cars, and legal, within one year? Elon's good, but he's not that good.

 

[AlMc]

L

I don't think. I know. I can't say anymore.

:wink:

 

[HankLloydRight]

L

I don't think. I know. I can't say anymore.

Sure you do. And it's going to be magically legal and insurable overnight, just because Elon says so?

Wow.

 

[RubberToe]

L

I don't think. I know. I can't say anymore.

I'll second the :wink:.

Long MBLY...