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Agile plunge pricing predictions
- Thread starter philgods
- Start date
ACarneiro
Active Member
He
Yeah, it’s because someone turned the fans off in Wales...Keep the faith Agilers!
Monday night into Tuesday is looking more normal.
We need to take the rough with the smooth.
Keep the faith Agilers!
Monday night into Tuesday is looking more normal.
We need to take the rough with the smooth.
Totally, whilst when I looked a was a tad alarmed but got to expect it now and again. There was something on the NG Twitter about demand yesterday I think it was.
Looks like I'm working from the local Podpoint at Tesco tomorrow
ACarneiro
Active Member
It’s been a particularly abysmal few days for carbon intensity as well. We had pretty much everything running today (over 2GW of coal, 600MW OCGT and loads of CCGT).
Our electric cars haven’t been very carbon friendly these last L couple of weeks...
Our electric cars haven’t been very carbon friendly these last L couple of weeks...
I've noticed the Octopus Watch app predictions are far more favourable 24 hours prior than 12 hours prior to the next days rates.
For example, the peak rate for Tuesday evening was initially predicted at around 25p, now it's at 35p. The cheap rates for Tuesday morning were around 4-5p, now 7-8p.
So looks like whatever's currently occurring to make the prices so high is proving hard to predict.
For example, the peak rate for Tuesday evening was initially predicted at around 25p, now it's at 35p. The cheap rates for Tuesday morning were around 4-5p, now 7-8p.
So looks like whatever's currently occurring to make the prices so high is proving hard to predict.
stonecoldrmw
Member
What I'm finding odd is how off the Octopus Watch predictions have been.
This is predicting a 25p peak rate on Thursday afternoon. Watch it shoot up to 35p by tomorrow midday.
Predictions up until a couple of weeks ago had been pretty close, but it seems currently they're unable to predict 36 hours in advance which suggests the high prices aren't just due to weather.
/remindme in 36 hrs
This is predicting a 25p peak rate on Thursday afternoon. Watch it shoot up to 35p by tomorrow midday.
Predictions up until a couple of weeks ago had been pretty close, but it seems currently they're unable to predict 36 hours in advance which suggests the high prices aren't just due to weather.
/remindme in 36 hrs
OK, so the 25p predicted peak per yesterday's update updated to 30p at midday today and has now been confirmed at 35p, although not for the entirety of the period.
Seems the developers of Octopus Watch are having a hard time working out what's going on too.
Glan gluaisne
Active Member
They should be able to give the price 24 hours in advance, as electricity is sold wholesale on a 24 hour buy ahead auction, in 30 minute slots. The wholesale price isn't publicly available, at least not for the whole market, which is a shame, as if it was then it should be relatively straightforward to scrape the prices, add the margin Octopus apply and come up with a reasonable estimate of the retail price.
ACarneiro
Active Member
Still not enough wind blowing.
It’s amazing the difference those extra 5GW make. The carbon intensity is terrible right now as well...
It’s amazing the difference those extra 5GW make. The carbon intensity is terrible right now as well...
Yeah, definitely not enough wind. But can that not be predicted with reasonable accuracy 36-48 hours prior?
What I'm trying to work out is why the predicted rates for the following day start low and then rise significantly closer to the time. Is it because the amount of wind forecast is over estimated? Or is the amount of energy to be imported and the price of it badly forecast? Or have Octopus got their formula wrong? Don't know.
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