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Agile plunge pricing predictions

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The already great Octopus Comparison looks to have had a update, hadn't seen it mentioned. Interface now updated and the now monthly information and comparison v.s Go. Really great update!

Octopus Energy Comparison

upload_2021-1-3_13-44-37.png
 
The already great Octopus Comparison looks to have had a update, hadn't seen it mentioned. Interface now updated and the now monthly information and comparison v.s Go. Really great update!

Octopus Energy Comparison

View attachment 623738

That graph shows a lot of negative pricing, I never seemed to have much more than 1 decent day of negative pricing last month, is that graph accurate?

I can't test right now as my meter is broke :(
 
I should of added context Rooster, the bars are units used not price. The left Axis seemed not to populate, normally shows a pricing line as per the daily view.

NGESO issued a EMN for tomorrow, the coal is burning, the wind isn't blowing and tomorrows rates will make your eyes water! Luckily away from home bubbling with the missus :cool:
 
Yes the rates for tomorrow are eye watering! What's an EMN?

09:00 - 09:30 20.16
09:30 - 10:00 21.00
10:00 - 10:30 21.63
10:30 - 11:00 22.05
11:00 - 11:30 21.63
11:30 - 12:00 22.05
12:00 - 12:30 24.15
12:30 - 13:00 24.19
13:00 - 13:30 22.05
13:30 - 14:00 20.16
14:00 - 14:30 19.95
14:30 - 15:00 18.98
15:00 - 15:30 17.81
15:30 - 16:00 26.88
16:00 - 16:30 35.00
16:30 - 17:00 35.00
17:00 - 17:30 35.00
17:30 - 18:00 35.00
18:00 - 18:30 35.00
18:30 - 19:00 35.00
19:00 - 19:30 34.42
19:30 - 20:00 18.82
20:00 - 20:30 18.90
20:30 - 21:00 15.54
 
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And this is where the 'experiment' may fail.
Yes, people will happily modify their time-of-use to fit with cost, but they won't accept day after day of these prices.
I expect Octopus are currently being bombarded with requests to move on to the Go tariff.
 
And this is where the 'experiment' may fail.
Yes, people will happily modify their time-of-use to fit with cost, but they won't accept day after day of these prices.
I expect Octopus are currently being bombarded with requests to move on to the Go tariff.

Day and day perhaps not, whilst not a long time Agile user I have been better off on average since I joined. It's slightly harder to gauge as like many not travelling for business so it's much easier to plan charging. I'm a low user really if you exclude my car but I can see how this wouldn't work for families with children to feed etc.

My understanding is an EMN isn't that serious but tells the producers to pay attention a CM I think is more serious. Having been on Agile etc and researched things a little more it's all surprisingly complicated.

More info here if interested How we work with the electricity market to balance supply and demand | National Grid ESO
 
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@Glan gluaisne has explained the EMN at least once. It’s not serious but it does mean that expensive generators will be offering power for the following 24 hours.
I won’t be charging my car for the next couple of days, the carbon intensity is quite horrifying...

Good move to reduce consumption whenever a margin notice is issued. On the plus side, all those investing in large scale battery storage and playing the arbitrage game are likely to be raking it in, selling at mega peak rates and buying at somewhat lower rates, within the space of a few hours each day.

The time to get concerned is when the wholesale prices rises to the point that it's economic to fire up the fields of big diesel gensets, as that really is the last resort of generation.
 
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Reactions: Godsense
I wonder if that’s actually happened any time in recent memory...

I've only heard of them being fired up for maintenance in the main. IIRC, there's a cost sharing agreement whereby the utilities that have most of the genset fields get to fire them up, and go off-grid, from time to time, and get paid to do so. Because the genset fields struggle to sync up to the grid, they are usually run asynchronously, powering things like water pumps in place of using grid power, so releasing normal generation for normal grid use. The utilities that have these big genset fields also get paid to have them available should the required notice be issued.
 
About a decade ago I was working for a data centre listed as one of the UK's Critical National Infrastructure sites. One afternoon I was working in the office when one of the Facilities guys got a phone call from National Grid, asking us to go on to Generators for the rest of the day. Data centres can consume vast quantities of power (measured in ten's of MW) and apparently that afternoon the margin was so tight that they needed every single watt back. I never did find out exactly how much diesel was burnt that day, but it was plenty.

A perfect demonstration though of why our Facilities team conducted "black building" testing every week, running one building on the campus on Generators for several hours to confirm that everything was fully functional.