All discussion of Lucid Motors

[StarFoxisDown!]

They're delivering cars now. I don't get the negativity. I'm pro pure ev plays over legacy on that subject.

Lucid Air deliveries now underway

Lucid plans to build 520 Air Dream Edition sedans, each spinning out a total of 1,080 horsepower, a range of 520 miles and carrying an asking price of $169,000.

www.autoblog.com

First deliveries are Oct 30th...so no they haven't delivered a single car yet.

And I wasn't negative on Lucid as a company........I am negative on their valuation. Tesla didn't get a 50 billion valuation until they were delivering 100,000 vehicles a quarter. It's a joke. Rivian's valuation is a joke, etc.....I hope (and I think) Rivian will survive and carve out a nice niche for their trucks/SUV's. But people willing buying into Lucid and buying into Rivian's IPO are buying into unjustified hype and they're buying dead money for the next 2-4 years.

 

[RobDickinson]

You said it. I got a minor exposure to LCID a while ago. I wish them the best.View attachment 726695

I actually bought a grands worth 2 days ago lol doing OK

 

[thx1139]

First deliveries are Oct 30th...so no they haven't delivered a single car yet.

And I wasn't negative on Lucid as a company........I am negative on their valuation. Tesla didn't get a 50 billion valuation until they were delivering 100,000 vehicles a quarter. It's a joke. Rivian's valuation is a joke, etc.....I hope (and I think) Rivian will survive and carve out a nice niche for their trucks/SUV's. But people willing buying into Lucid and buying into Rivian's IPO are buying into unjustified hype and they're buying dead money for the next 2-4 years.

What are the chances Lucid actually delivers 577 in 2021 which they said they would a few months back?

 

[winfield100]

They're delivering cars now. I don't get the negativity. I'm pro pure ev plays over legacy on that subject.

Lucid Air deliveries now underway

Lucid plans to build 520 Air Dream Edition sedans, each spinning out a total of 1,080 horsepower, a range of 520 miles and carrying an asking price of $169,000.

www.autoblog.com

@thesmokingman
1,000
erm,
i meant 520 of them, that’s …..nice….

Bob Beaumont made over 2,300 CitiCars, they were first 2.5 hp then later over 6hp (mine was blue) 48v
get back when they have sold more than CitiCars,

 

[Krugerrand]

What are the chances Lucid actually delivers 577 in 2021 which they said they would a few months back?

Let’s do the comparative math. Rivian is already producing at a staggering average of 1 car/day rate for the last few? weeks/month? (I forget when they started). There are 60 daysish left in the year. Unless Lucid is producing at a much higher rate right this second -

#notgonnahappen

 

[Spacep0d]

You said it. I got a minor exposure to LCID a while ago. I wish them the best.View attachment 726695

Do you have 1547 shares of LCID? +30k profit is very healthy. What is the '30' there? I may be way off here. Correction welcome.

I'm HODLing 162 shares and may buy more depending on how delivery day goes. There's lots of profit to be had....even from a smaller (than Tesla) slice of a very large pie. With 2% worldwide EV adoption, the addressable market is huge and growth in the EV space will be exponential. I think we're seeing that already, especially with the Hertz/Uber deal and the seemingly endless demand 'problem' Tesla has.

 

[mejojo]

Do you have 1547 shares of LCID? +30k profit is very healthy. What is the '30' there? I may be way off here. Correction welcome.

I'm HODLing 162 shares and may buy more depending on how delivery day goes. There's lots of profit to be had....even from a smaller (than Tesla) slice of a very large pie. With 2% worldwide EV adoption, the addressable market is huge and growth in the EV space will be exponential. I think we're seeing that already, especially with the Hertz/Uber deal and the seemingly endless demand 'problem' Tesla has.

30 Call Options for 1/21/22 @ $20 strike (3000 shares participation) bought 9/2 for $4 and current price $16.

 

[RobStark]

First deliveries are Oct 30th...so no they haven't delivered a single car yet.

First deliveries to non-employees non-VIP investors happen Oct 30.

There are Lucid Airs registered and titled with DMVs to individual owners and driving legally on public roadways for a couple of weeks now.

BTW Tesla's valuation isn't based on selling cars at 30% margin. It is based on it being a robotaxi company making money hand over fist selling taxi rides without paying a taxi driver. And Tesla hasn't delivered a single robotaxi.

And selling RoboSemi TaaS. Selling trucking delivery services making money hand over fist because you are not paying a truck driver. And Tesla has not delivered a single Semi.

 

[UCF3]

The scuttlebutt is that the Air Pure will get 406 EPA miles from a gross 88 kWh battery pack. For $77,400 before any incentives.

Under the new proposed tax credit, none of the vehicles Lucid makes will qualify because I believe sedans are limited to $56k.

 

[RobStark]

Under the new proposed tax credit, none of the vehicles Lucid makes will qualify because I believe sedans are limited to $56k.

That is the White House-House of Rep proposal.

Senate Cap is $80k for all vehicle types.

Nothing may pass to modify existing incentives.

 

[ammulder]

Tesla's valuation isn't based on selling cars at 30% margin. It is based on it being a robotaxi company making money hand over fist selling taxi rides without paying a taxi driver. And Tesla hasn't delivered a single robotaxi.

And selling RoboSemi TaaS. Selling trucking delivery services making money hand over fist because you are not paying a truck driver. And Tesla has not delivered a single Semi.

So your theory is that if Tesla delivered full autonomy with robotaxis and Semi TasS tomorrow, the stock would not react at all because that’s already priced in?

 

[Mengy]

BTW Tesla's valuation isn't based on selling cars at 30% margin. It is based on it being a robotaxi company making money hand over fist selling taxi rides without paying a taxi driver. And Tesla hasn't delivered a single robotaxi.

Incorrect, Tesla's valuation is based off it's fundamentals with a very high gross margin and a high P/E ratio due to expected forward growth. Robotaxi's are not a factor yet, but future software revenue certainly is.

Lucid is not earing any profits today so it doesn't have any fundamentals to base it's valuation from, it's stock price is pure hype with hopes and dreams it can get to cashflow positive someday down the road.

You do not need to bash on Tesla in order to justify your support for Lucid Rob.

 

[RobStark]

So your theory is that if Tesla delivered full autonomy with robotaxis and Semi TasS tomorrow, the stock would not react at all because that’s already priced in?

If robotaxis and Semi TaaS were introduced tomorrow uncertainty would drop to zero. And the stock would rally. Maybe $2T valuation or more.

A very large percentage of that $1T valuation is based on investors betting Tesla is in the lead on autonomy and likely to win.

 

[RobStark]

Incorrect, Tesla's valuation is based off it's fundamentals with a very high gross margin and a high P/E ratio due to expected forward growth. Robotaxi's are not a factor yet, but future software revenue certainly is.

Lucid is not earing any profits today so it doesn't have any fundamentals to base it's valuation from, it's stock price is pure hype with hopes and dreams it can get to cashflow positive someday down the road.

You do not need to bash on Tesla in order to justify your support for Lucid Rob.

Good grief.

Not bashing Tesla at all.

Tesla's car business sans autonomy software is not worth $1T.


Much the same Lucid's valuation is a bet that Lucid will essentially replace Mercedes Benz in the future.

 

[Mengy]

Tesla's car business sans autonomy software is not worth $1T.

Not today, but in a year or two it will be once both Berlin and Austin are ramped up and producing, and both factories are nearly done and merely a month or two from going into production.

Tesla's margins plus very near future production volume is enough to justify today's valuation according to my calculations. This is sans autonomy.

I like Lucid and I want them to succeed, but as an investor there is no way I'd ever buy their stock as it's valued today. After a few years if they are producing profits and the valuation isn't crazy high I'd consider investing into them, but the current Lucid valuation is just silly.

 

[RobStark]

Not today, but in a year or two it will be once both Berlin and Austin are ramped up and producing, and both factories are nearly done and merely a month or two from going into production.

Tesla's margins plus very near future production volume is enough to justify today's valuation according to my calculations. This is sans autonomy.

I like Lucid and I want them to succeed, but as an investor there is no way I'd ever buy their stock as it's valued today. After a few years if they are producing profits and the valuation isn't crazy high I'd consider investing into them, but the current Lucid valuation is just silly.

Strongly disagree.

Without Tesla's autonomy software and the team behind that software the chances of the Chinese auto companies disrupting Tesla would be very high.

In one of the financial calls they asked Musk how much of the R&D budget is for autonomy and he said basically all of it.

Elon said in the very near future he thinks a car without full autonomy is close to worthless.

One of the big reasons VW China will sell ~100k ID.4 this year while having capacity to build 500k is because in China they are seen as being way behind in software in general and autonomy in particular. The Chinese putting a bigger value on tech and software.

 

[HVM]

Ok, where are the owner reviews?

 

[RobStark]

Ok, where are the owner reviews?

Employees and VIP Investors tend not to post Utube/Twitter reviews.

Form Tesla,Polestar, VW,Rivian ....everyone.

 

[heltok]

My opinion. It has some specs that is better than current Model S specs. WP Lucid, that was a first. But it lacks the two specs I find most important as a Model X owner, Tesla Autopilot and Tesla Superchager network. The difference to S in the specs is not enough to make up for that difference. But I guess some people have yet to learn that those are the most important features and will buy the Lucid. Some might live to regret that decision once they struggle to find a good working charger, but by then they might be so invested that they will convince themselves otherwise.

I would be surprised if Lucid manages to make and sell more than 50k/year of the current vehicle lineup and I doubt they will be printing money. But it’s a good start! Too bad their valuation is too high for some other company to acquire them and incorporate their technology.

 

[uujjj2]

People are going to be surprised how good Lucid's financials look in Q4/Q1. There's not that much hardware in the Air. It seems to be a pretty easy-to-build car. At a $169000 price, there's a lot of profit margin for a car that was originally targeted at a sub-$60k price.