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#21
TESLER2013 said:
The analysts are pricing it at 5x next years revenue - similar to Tesla's valuation. So lately, NIO has had greatly increased revenue and keeps increasing their monthly output. They are the premiere luxury EV maker in China and has recently started a direct sales channel in Norway to sell in Europe. Their SUVs are currently way more polished and made better than Teslas. Look up NIO reviews on youtube. They have a new sedan, comparable to the Model S that they revealed. They are hitting on all cylinders. Their battery swap method in China is preferred by the Chinese government and the government recently decided that EV cars won't have to get permission or fee for driving on roads. They are aiming for a full electric car country. NIO will prosper. NIO has the cash (investment injections) and the support of the Chinese government and will outsell Tesla cars in China. The Trump tariffs on Chinese electronics for cars will hinder Tesla and let NIO's self driving chip move rapidly to production. (Tesla is currently suing the Trump administration for hindering their growth by putting tariffs on electronics and chips they need from China) And to top it off, the CEO is brilliant. He has experience in marketing for autos and is a billionaire fanatic for his company just like Elon. In time, we will see NIO challenge Tesla.
Click to expand...
Thank you for all the info, just bought more today.
 
#24
I bought and sold quickly a while back for net nothing all under 10 bucks. Oops. I think I am going to jump back in, as just like TSLA sometimes when you just standby and wait for your moment, your moment can get more and more expensive.
 
#25
Boomer19 said:
i think i’m going to start stepping into buys of CATL, it’s lower now than it’s ipo for first time.
symbol 300750 Shenzhen

not much at first, just enough to wet beak
Click to expand...

@Boomer19 how did you manage to buy CATL? I looked into it and they're "A-shares" which you have to have some institutional investor certification, is there a different way?

On the NIO front, I got super lucky with timing and got in on the last day it was in 21's before the big jump, literally 10 min before close. Does anyone have a good understanding on the ownership structure? There's a portion that is owned by Chinese gov't, yet the rest trades on NYSE, is there any problem in this setup?
 
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#26
dakh said:
@Boomer19 how did you manage to buy CATL? I looked into it and they're "A-shares" which you have to have some institutional investor certification, is there a different way?

On the NIO front, I got super lucky with timing and got in on the last day it was in 21's before the big jump, literally 10 min before close. Does anyone have a good understanding on the ownership structure? There's a portion that is owned by Chinese gov't, yet the rest trades on NYSE, is there any problem in this setup?
Click to expand...

man that was may 2019

i tried for the main exchange shares but couldn’t access them. they also weren’t available on the Mainland connect program (there’s a small subset/list of mainland china securities that you’re allowed to trade via HKEX).
and i’m not sure if there was an alternative at the time. now you’re saying there’s a NYSE contract?? interesting.

long story short, i posted that before becoming aware that i wasn’t able to trade them. i figured since i was able to pull the symbol up that it was within the accessible list of securities (ibkr) at the time

btw those share were around 70CNY at time
...255 now
the idea was right, at least (tmc needs a facepalm icon)
 
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#29
Boomer19 said:
man that was may 2019

i tried for the main exchange shares but couldn’t access them. they also weren’t available on the Mainland connect program (there’s a small subset/list of mainland china securities that you’re allowed to trade via HKEX).
and i’m not sure if there was an alternative at the time. now you’re saying there’s a NYSE contract?? interesting.

long story short, i posted that before becoming aware that i wasn’t able to trade them. i figured since i was able to pull the symbol up that it was within the accessible list of securities (ibkr) at the time

btw those share were around 70CNY at time
...255 now
the idea was right, at least (tmc needs a facepalm icon)
Click to expand...

Yeah, looks like pretty much NIO and BYDDF are the only companies that is easy to invest in for China EV play. . LG Chem is about to split off battery division so looks like not a good time to buy, CATL is not easily available. What else is there?
 
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Reactions: Boomer19
#33
Controversially, I'd like to mention investing, and Tesla in this thread :D

I've been looking into Nio, which I think does not get much coverage in this forum. I bring it up in its capacity as a potential competitor to Tesla in the long term. (I am also considering buying some shares).
Its shot up MASSIVELY in the last few days, stock-wise, but ignoring that for a minute and considering the product(s):
Website:
NIO - Home

The product I am interested in (from an investors POV, is their SUV, the ES6: NIO ES6 - Wikipedia

Some stats:
Comparison between: 2019 NIO ES6 Performance 84 kWh, 2020 Tesla Model Y Performance AWD
China made, 84kwh battery, 124mph top speed, 316mile range
Nio has 143 battery-swap stations built in china.
sales: 20,000 by october this year.

Nio is NOT a new company, nor is it weighed down with legacy ICE tech or an ICE mindset. Their cars look quite nice, and frankly have more options (and colors!) than the model Y,

Nio seem to be *late* in terms of ramping up rpduction compared to Tesla, and obviosuly right now its a china company, not a global player like Tesla, but will have some home-field advantage in a HUGE marketplace. Not everyone will buy Tesla, want tesla, or afford a tesla. Is there anything I am missing or does nio look like a reasonable candidate for taking the #2 spot in China for EVs? maybe even digging quite deep into teslas market share there?
 
  • Informative
Reactions: CorneliusXX
#34
cliffski said:
Controversially, I'd like to mention investing, and Tesla in this thread :D

I've been looking into Nio, which I think does not get much coverage in this forum. I bring it up in its capacity as a potential competitor to Tesla in the long term. (I am also considering buying some shares).
Its shot up MASSIVELY in the last few days, stock-wise, but ignoring that for a minute and considering the product(s):
Website:
NIO - Home

The product I am interested in (from an investors POV, is their SUV, the ES6: NIO ES6 - Wikipedia

Some stats:
Comparison between: 2019 NIO ES6 Performance 84 kWh, 2020 Tesla Model Y Performance AWD
China made, 84kwh battery, 124mph top speed, 316mile range
Nio has 143 battery-swap stations built in china.
sales: 20,000 by october this year.

Nio is NOT a new company, nor is it weighed down with legacy ICE tech or an ICE mindset. Their cars look quite nice, and frankly have more options (and colors!) than the model Y,

Nio seem to be *late* in terms of ramping up rpduction compared to Tesla, and obviosuly right now its a china company, not a global player like Tesla, but will have some home-field advantage in a HUGE marketplace. Not everyone will buy Tesla, want tesla, or afford a tesla. Is there anything I am missing or does nio look like a reasonable candidate for taking the #2 spot in China for EVs? maybe even digging quite deep into teslas market share there?
Click to expand...
You are comparing Nio to Tesla too much. Nio has more in common with traditional OEMs as their margins are extremely tiny for now, and will be tiny in the future compared to Tesla.

I wouldn't consider Nio at current marketcap until you can tell a story of them either gaining 50%+ margins somewhere (software sales?), or 30%+ margins on every car they sell some how(more vertical integration?)

GM gives the company stock the multiples it need. So it's not about taking market share or being number 2. Even traditional car companies have areas where it can generate 50% margins(like parts). Tesla is getting higher multiples because they are seeking for 30%+ margins through manufacturing efficiencies of their cars/batteries AND 80%+ software margins on software.

Also look at limiting factors that prevent growth. For Nio I see two major ones.

1. Battery supply: It's a Tesla issue and Tesla is going to eat up more than half of the supply
2. Brand power: I don't see any Chinese branded cars being sold very well outside of china and India (looking at Cell phone market share). Advertisement dollars will need to be spent to generate sales due to a lack of brand power or a rockstar CEO.

Lastly look at Risks. The risks that apply to Nio applies to all new EV ventures

1. New car companies have a hard time surviving due to initial warranty period
2. New EV car companies have a hard time surviving due to lack of service centers as they cannot rely on well established auto shops like pep boys.

PROS: They have the backing of the CCP. However that just means they probably won't go bankrupt as the Chinese doesn't exactly push one brand vs another. The power of Chinese branded things (like Huawei) is that it provides high quality while being of having value due to cheaper labor cost. So it's like a more bang for the buck without sacrificing too much quality vs an iphone. HOWEVER. Tesla acts like it wants to out Chinese the Chinese companies by reducing price down to impossible levels through hard core engineering. This kind of makes the Tesla of China...Tesla.

For all the reasons above, I don't dare touch any other car companies. Only thing that got me into Tesla is I was sure Elon's celebrity status as an engineer attracts the highest talent in the world. So far that has played out.
 
Last edited:
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Reactions: hoang51, OrthoSurg, EVMeister and 3 others
#35
Singuy said:
You are comparing Nio to Tesla too much. Nio has more in common with traditional OEMs as their margins are extremely tiny for now, and will be tiny in the future compared to Tesla.

I wouldn't consider Nio at current marketcap until you can tell a story of them either gaining 50%+ margins somewhere (software sales?), or 30%+ margins on every car they sell some how(more vertical integration?)

GM gives the company stock the multiples it need. So it's not about taking market share or being number 2. Even traditional car companies have areas where it can generate 50% margins(like parts). Tesla is getting higher multiples because they are seeking for 30%+ margins through manufacturing efficiencies of their cars/batteries AND 80%+ software margins on software.

Also look at limiting factors that prevent growth. For Nio I see two major ones.

1. Battery supply: It's a Tesla issue and Tesla is going to eat up more than half of the supply
2. Brand power: I don't see any Chinese branded cars being sold very well outside of china and India (looking at Cell phone market share). Advertisement dollars will need to be spent to generate sales due to a lack of brand power or a rockstar CEO.

Lastly look at Risks. The risks that apply to Nio applies to all new EV ventures

1. New car companies have a hard time surviving due to initial warranty period
2. New EV car companies have a hard time surviving due to lack of service centers as they cannot rely on well established auto shops like pep boys.

For all the reasons above, I don't dare touch any other car companies. Only thing that got me into Tesla is I was sure Elon's celebrity status as an engineer attracts the highest talent in the world. So far that has played out.
Click to expand...
Agreed. Nio's margin has recently flipped from negative to about 8%. That's when the stock began to climb vertically, but let's not kid ourselves: 8% is truly terrible, considering their products are considered premium.
 
#37
Really
Singuy said:
You are comparing Nio to Tesla too much. Nio has more in common with traditional OEMs as their margins are extremely tiny for now, and will be tiny in the future compared to Tesla.

I wouldn't consider Nio at current marketcap until you can tell a story of them either gaining 50%+ margins somewhere (software sales?), or 30%+ margins on every car they sell some how(more vertical integration?)

GM gives the company stock the multiples it need. So it's not about taking market share or being number 2. Even traditional car companies have areas where it can generate 50% margins(like parts). Tesla is getting higher multiples because they are seeking for 30%+ margins through manufacturing efficiencies of their cars/batteries AND 80%+ software margins on software.

Also look at limiting factors that prevent growth. For Nio I see two major ones.

1. Battery supply: It's a Tesla issue and Tesla is going to eat up more than half of the supply
2. Brand power: I don't see any Chinese branded cars being sold very well outside of china and India (looking at Cell phone market share). Advertisement dollars will need to be spent to generate sales due to a lack of brand power or a rockstar CEO.

Lastly look at Risks. The risks that apply to Nio applies to all new EV ventures

1. New car companies have a hard time surviving due to initial warranty period
2. New EV car companies have a hard time surviving due to lack of service centers as they cannot rely on well established auto shops like pep boys.

PROS: They have the backing of the CCP. However that just means they probably won't go bankrupt as the Chinese doesn't exactly push one brand vs another. The power of Chinese branded things (like Huawei) is that it provides high quality while being of having value due to cheaper labor cost. So it's like a more bang for the buck without sacrificing too much quality vs an iphone. HOWEVER. Tesla acts like it wants to out Chinese the Chinese companies by reducing price down to impossible levels through hard core engineering. This kind of makes the Tesla of China...Tesla.

For all the reasons above, I don't dare touch any other car companies. Only thing that got me into Tesla is I was sure Elon's celebrity status as an engineer attracts the highest talent in the world. So far that has played out.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the excellent info.
You just confirmed I had the right positions with 99% of my money in TSLA and 1% in NIO
 
#38
OrthoSurg said:
Some YouTube videos saying the CEO is all I like Elon.
However I read the factories do not belong to NIO.
Subcontracted
Click to expand...
Exactly. Nio does not manufacture anything. Nio is a Brand. As such their margins will never approach Tesla, and they will never be leaders. Comparing Nio to Tesla is apples to oranges. Tesla is a car manufacturer, motor developer, chip maker, battery and battery storage manufacture, solar panel & solar roof manufacture, utility...
EV startup NIO abandons plan to make its own cars

The above said, any EV manufactured is one less ICE. Nio is not emcumbered by ICE sales like traditional OEM which gives them a leg up. Their cars look great. The World is turning to EVs and they are positioned to take a good share of the pie in China and elsewhere. More power to them and I wish them and all their investors much success.

Still, all my money is with Tesla, and IMHO the Tesla growth and share price appreciation is just getting started. The Cybertruck will become the best selling vehicle on the planet, and the the Tesla Semi will become the best selling transport truck on the planet. It just requires Tesla and their partners to ramp up battery production. Same for energy (battery) storage. Tesla is unstopable.
 
#39
Words of HABIT said:
Exactly. Nio does not manufacture anything. Nio is a Brand. As such their margins will never approach Tesla, and they will never be leaders. Comparing Nio to Tesla is apples to oranges. Tesla is a car manufacturer, motor developer, chip maker, battery and battery storage manufacture, solar panel & solar roof manufacture, utility...
EV startup NIO abandons plan to make its own cars

The above said, any EV manufactured is one less ICE. Nio is not emcumbered by ICE sales like traditional OEM which gives them a leg up. Their cars look great. The World is turning to EVs and they are positioned to take a good share of the pie in China and elsewhere. More power to them and I wish them and all their investors much success.

Still, all my money is with Tesla, and IMHO the Tesla growth and share price appreciation is just getting started. The Cybertruck will become the best selling vehicle on the planet, and the the Tesla Semi will become the best selling transport truck on the planet. It just requires Tesla and their partners to ramp up battery production. Same for energy (battery) storage. Tesla is unstopable.
Click to expand...


So much hype and people capitalizing on hype house stock
 
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