Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

[bonaire]

Perfectlogic: solar installations will continue to grow 30-50%

CAGR of 30-50% a year ongoing is a huge ramp for any industry. Solar Industry magazine, which covers all sorts of details of this industry, doesn't indicate that installers and systems integrators are on any sort of track that would be that kind of growth. One breakthrough that I like is Solar Silicon. Silicor Materials may be able to make a dent in production costs of solar modules using a far less expensive (energy-input) solar silicon material versus using electronics-grade silicon used today. Wholesale electricity in the USA is in the 3-4 cent per kWh range now from baseload plants. Sometimes below 3 cents during lulls in demand and in Texas, some ratepayers are paying negative per kWh at night when wind is strong. Great market for EVs in that type of scenario. However, wind may be a better choice in some locations over solar and grid providers who would be involved in deployment choices may favor wind over solar in some cases. I would also like to see developments and advances in residential wind generation for farms and suburban zones.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

There's no need for further reduction in solar module cost in order for the industry to continue doubling every 18-30 months.

 

[PaulRocket]

@PaulRocket & Johan

15 years is a long time, I think the industry will mature much earlier. I think solar installations will continue to grow 30-50% per year until solar pretty much takes over the market for new electricity production capacity in 4-5 years at something like 5 times the last years 60 GW deployment, could reach a much higher demand temporarily as old more expensive and dirty capacity is swapped out with solar.

I am looking for something like $30-$50/share for my TSL in 3-4 years time. I expect Trina to reach $6-9B in revenues in that timeframe alone from their upstream business, which at a net profit margin of 5% and a P/E of 8 (conservative, but it is a cyclical industry with a relatively small moat) would give a market cap of $3B, on top of that I expect the downstream business could reach a few billions in value too.

@neroden

That is ofcourse a risk, just like there is a risk that some company other than Tesla comes up with a breakthrough in battery technology which gives them an edge. I don't think the risk is very large though, just like with batteries people have worked for a long time trying to come up with breakthroughs. The silicon type solar cell also has the advantage of huge economies of scale over any new tech which will be hard to overcome.

Many people often make the mistake when thinking about solar that some new breakthrough is needed for solar to really work on a much wider scale, but that is just objectively wrong. Just recently the lowest bid for 800MW of solar in the Middle East was just under 3 cents / kwh, that is insanely low, not even nat gas at the recent low can compete there. And as the industry grows 5 times the price will probably be cut in half from here. When solar is sub 2cents/kwh I doubt there will be many new startups as wholesale electricity will be so dirt cheap.

Yes I agree. Solar transitioning will be way faster then people think and so will the rise of the stock prices. Right now I'm just debating which stocks I should buy. I already have CSIQ and SCTY and SEDG. Thinking about getting into FSLR and Jinko or Trina. Not sure though so would appreciate anyone's thoughts.

 

[Dutchie]

@PaulRocket & Johan

When solar is sub 2cents/kwh I doubt there will be many new startups as wholesale electricity will be so dirt cheap.

LPPFusion has a business plan with a price of 1/5 cents/KWh. FUSION | Fusion FAQ

 

[Perfectlogic]

Perfectlogic: solar installations will continue to grow 30-50%

CAGR of 30-50% a year ongoing is a huge ramp for any industry. Solar Industry magazine, which covers all sorts of details of this industry, doesn't indicate that installers and systems integrators are on any sort of track that would be that kind of growth. One breakthrough that I like is Solar Silicon. Silicor Materials may be able to make a dent in production costs of solar modules using a far less expensive (energy-input) solar silicon material versus using electronics-grade silicon used today. Wholesale electricity in the USA is in the 3-4 cent per kWh range now from baseload plants. Sometimes below 3 cents during lulls in demand and in Texas, some ratepayers are paying negative per kWh at night when wind is strong. Great market for EVs in that type of scenario. However, wind may be a better choice in some locations over solar and grid providers who would be involved in deployment choices may favor wind over solar in some cases. I would also like to see developments and advances in residential wind generation for farms and suburban zones.

I remember seeing a graph that showed how the EIA has underestimated the growth of solar every single year for the last 10 or something. I dont know why everyone is so pessimistic on the growth projection, going forward most are expecting something like a 10% growth which makes absolutely no sense. The solar industry has grown 47% on average per year over the last 10 years and now when it has finally reached cost parity with FF and is about to become the cheapest source of electricity available the growth will slow almost to a halt? I honestly have a hard time understanding how people can be this stupid.

 

[Perfectlogic]

LPPFusion has a business plan with a price of 1/5 cents/KWh. FUSION | Fusion FAQ

There is a lot of vaporware in the nuclear energy space. Remember that we have worked on fusion for something like 50 years and we are not even close to a finished working reactor yet. ITER (international fusion project) just came out and said that they expected a delay of 10 years with another $4-5B in added cost, pushing the deadline out to 2035.

 

[Dutchie]

There is a lot of vaporware in the nuclear energy space. Remember that we have worked on fusion for something like 50 years and we are not even close to a finished working reactor yet. ITER (international fusion project) just came out and said that they expected a delay of 10 years with another $4-5B in added cost, pushing the deadline out to 2035.

I agree, tokamak fusion (ITER) is a fund swallowing black hole. LPPFusion, however, has shown some remarkable results with very little funds. Temperature and confinement time has been proven. Now they are on their way to tackle density requirement. Hopefully, scientific proof should be realised within a year.

 

[bonaire]

I remember seeing a graph that showed how the EIA has underestimated the growth of solar every single year for the last 10 or something. I dont know why everyone is so pessimistic on the growth projection, going forward most are expecting something like a 10% growth which makes absolutely no sense. The solar industry has grown 47% on average per year over the last 10 years and now when it has finally reached cost parity with FF and is about to become the cheapest source of electricity available the growth will slow almost to a halt? I honestly have a hard time understanding how people can be this stupid.

Cost parity per what metric? Faceplate cost of installation? Total cost per MWh produced? It may be close to cost parity - but it does not match the production capacity parity. A 1 MW gas generator produces 24 MWh per day, for example. You need a 4 MW array and full sun to match 24 MWh on average. Cloudy days, you need 12 MW or more of array nameplate capacity. So, there are issues in doing direct comparisons and also for round the clock capacity capability with both Solar and Wind. You need a lot of excess generating capacity and a lot of batteries to "match" FF generators at this point. The only way I can see "cost parity" happening for real is if grid pricing goes up about 50% per delivered retail kWh and then we get $90/kWh batteries with 6000 or more full cycle capability. And Solar arrays at $2.00-2.50 per W residential without incentives.

 

[Perfectlogic]

Cost parity per what metric? Faceplate cost of installation? Total cost per MWh produced? It may be close to cost parity - but it does not match the production capacity parity. A 1 MW gas generator produces 24 MWh per day, for example. You need a 4 MW array and full sun to match 24 MWh on average. Cloudy days, you need 12 MW or more of array nameplate capacity. So, there are issues in doing direct comparisons and also for round the clock capacity capability with both Solar and Wind. You need a lot of excess generating capacity and a lot of batteries to "match" FF generators at this point. The only way I can see "cost parity" happening for real is if grid pricing goes up about 50% per delivered retail kWh and then we get $90/kWh batteries with 6000 or more full cycle capability. And Solar arrays at $2.00-2.50 per W residential without incentives.

I am talking about cost per kwh ofcourse, where the capacity factor is adjusted for. The cost per unit of electricity. I'm not sure why you bring residential solar into the discussion as it is 3 times the cost of utility scale. Utility scale is already at $1/W, half the price of your goal, with a better capacity factor than rooftop in addition.

It is true that balancing the load is more expensive with solar than FF due to the inconsistency of the output. But with the Tesla powerpack at just 7 cents / kwh stored today (and falling) the added cost isn't huge. And when you bring this into the discussion you also have to keep in mind that renewables will always be subsidized to some degree by the government due to the whole climate change thing.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Cost parity per what metric? Faceplate cost of installation? Total cost per MWh produced? It may be close to cost parity - but it does not match the production capacity parity. A 1 MW gas generator produces 24 MWh per day, for example. You need a 4 MW array and full sun to match 24 MWh on average. Cloudy days, you need 12 MW or more of array nameplate capacity. So, there are issues in doing direct comparisons and also for round the clock capacity capability with both Solar and Wind. You need a lot of excess generating capacity and a lot of batteries to "match" FF generators at this point. The only way I can see "cost parity" happening for real is if grid pricing goes up about 50% per delivered retail kWh and then we get $90/kWh batteries with 6000 or more full cycle capability. And Solar arrays at $2.00-2.50 per W residential without incentives.

That's a total replacement comparison, we're not turning off one supply and flipping the swich on another. All solar needs to do in the near term is steal peak production up to maybe 60% of peak demand. Batteries don't need to be cheap until each region starts hitting fairly high percentages of peak. Having early adopters like Germany and California driving innovation up and costs down buys the rest of us enough time to get battery tech to $100/kWh. Shouldn't be an issue.

 

[bonaire]

That's what they were telling me when I was getting quotes for Solar PV back in 2010-2011. The talk (besides "you'll get rich with SREC sales - and the power companies raise rates every year!") was that peaker plants don't need to be built or run. That's fine but now, the talk is we need to go natural gas plants to replace aging and shuttering the coal plants. All the while, new coal plants are being built in India, China and elsewhere. Kind of a sad situation worldwide.

What I want is full-fleet EVs to act as battery buffers to help offset the peak demand - that is a far better use of batteries once millions of EVs are on the road. Arrive at work - charge it fully in the morning, make the car "available" for 1KW output in the afternoon if the grid demands it. Scale that by millions and it's not too bad at all. If a car is used for this arbitrage, pay back at double the rate. It will need extensive computer support and known readiness of the fleet but it will account for GWs of available power except during afternoon commutes. We also need to integrate smart thermostats into the mix such that if your car cannot supply the battery dump that is requested, your associated home AC can be "altered" to raise temperatures a bit to lower demand during peak times or settable by you. The whole picture is configurable but is maybe a bit to "Jetsons" or "Scientific American" to sell it to everyone.

Our grid's primary problem is AC load on the grid on hot and cloudy afternoons. Secondary problem is reaction time should a plant need to take down a larger generator for immediate concerns or repairs.

 

[FANGO]

And Solar arrays at $2.00-2.50 per W residential without incentives.

When comparing costs, particularly for residential (end-user) projects, it is ridiculous to take into account anything *but* the full post-incentive price. Nobody buys something saying "yeah but if this cost twice as much I won't buy it, so I'm not going to buy it," they buy it at the cost it's currently at. Further, if you're going to discount the efficacy of solar due to incentives, then you should also discount the efficacy of fossil fuels due to their incentives. Fossil fuels have a MASSIVE incentive, much greater than the amount solar gets, in the form of unrecognized externalities. They are subsidized much more, even on a per-kWh basis, than clean energy is. And these subsidies have been in place for over a century, so of course they will have reached a dominant position with that kind of support. Obviously, we need to end these subsidies now - and if we do, and end clean energy subsidies at the same time (which we shouldn't, we should keep them around since they provide other social benefits and to make up for the century head start dirty energy has had), clean energy will be even more competitive, not less.

Fossil fuels are way more expensive than you think | Dana Nuccitelli

Act Local, Solve Global: The $5.3 Trillion Energy Subsidy Problem

 

[TheTalkingMule]

What I want is full-fleet EVs to act as battery buffers to help offset the peak demand - that is a far better use of batteries once millions of EVs are on the road. Arrive at work - charge it fully in the morning, make the car "available" for 1KW output in the afternoon if the grid demands it.

Places with decent solar penetration are finding out the need will be just the opposite. Go to work with a half full battery and suck up the excess power at peak to bring home and augment your night usage. Once solar has even a moderate footprint you won't be able to give away electricity at peak. Even in cloudy Germany wholesale electricity prices actually go negative on sunny Sundays when peak demand is low and all their panels are still kicking out full blast. And that's with solar at just 6% of total supply.

 

[bonaire]

When comparing costs, particularly for residential (end-user) projects, it is ridiculous to take into account anything *but* the full post-incentive price. Nobody buys something saying "yeah but if this cost twice as much I won't buy it, so I'm not going to buy it," they buy it at the cost it's currently at. Further, if you're going to discount the efficacy of solar due to incentives, then you should also discount the efficacy of fossil fuels due to their incentives. Fossil fuels have a MASSIVE incentive, much greater than the amount solar gets, in the form of unrecognized externalities. They are subsidized much more, even on a per-kWh basis, than clean energy is. And these subsidies have been in place for over a century, so of course they will have reached a dominant position with that kind of support. Obviously, we need to end these subsidies now - and if we do, and end clean energy subsidies at the same time (which we shouldn't, we should keep them around since they provide other social benefits and to make up for the century head start dirty energy has had), clean energy will be even more competitive, not less.

Fossil fuels are way more expensive than you think | Dana Nuccitelli

Act Local, Solve Global: The $5.3 Trillion Energy Subsidy Problem

Absolutely - remove all fuels incentives (and exploration tax credits) - by doing so, the true value of fuel sources becomes the market price. If fuels really cost that much (without incentives) we probably shouldn't be using them - or as Bush said "we are addicted to oil". Oil has allowed us to grow from 1 billion people to 7 billion people with a possible fuel "cliff" ahead in 30-50 years. This was not good governing on the part of anyone with a long-view.

 

[bonaire]

Places with decent solar penetration are finding out the need will be just the opposite. Go to work with a half full battery and suck up the excess power at peak to bring home and augment your night usage. Once solar has even a moderate footprint you won't be able to give away electricity at peak. Even in cloudy Germany wholesale electricity prices actually go negative on sunny Sundays when peak demand is low and all their panels are still kicking out full blast. And that's with solar at just 6% of total supply.

I prefer to fully charge at night with grid lull. Then, drive to work. You use <n%> of your battery. Then, soak up solar from 9am to 1 or 2pm. Then you are fully charged. You can dump to the grid from 2-5pm at some 1 or 2 KW rate to "help peak load, if necessary". If not necessary, keep the car fully charged and that's it - commute home. Once home, you could participate in peak-load shaving with the car from 6pm-9pm (which is the true peak in California). At midnight, start the charge cycle again.

V2G is the true future solution for mass adoption of EVs and load shaving with an intelligent driving fleet. The real leader of the EV future landscape may be companies like ABB in combination with GE and other grid system controllers who can help build the sweeping technical solutions that make this happen. Buying an EV, buying a business battery, buying grid-connected batteries and buying more batteries for the home is not efficient and is capital and resource intensive. However, it does have one advantage - it keeps people and hands out of the way. Stationary systems in buildings, homes and grid depots are going to be there 99%+ of the time. Cars and people may or may not be there and cannot be assured as a consistent connection. With millions in the fleet roaming about, it will become more plausible. But sure, it's a good "theory" - but can it be realized? I wish Musk was thinking this way. It's the right way to blanket the land with a new energy landscape. We cannot afford not to do this in the long-run. Business parking garages should be mandated with solar roofs, lots of 2-way plugs and grid-interconnect control software. That would be a start. And then one day, you will find all Walmart, Target, malls and so on with solar roofs and similar power management for parkers. It is a matter of getting the automotive manufacturers on board and enough advocates of V2G to make sure that we all understand the general good of doing it. This may only happen once Li-Ion batteries (or similar solid state stuff) becomes 10,000-20,000 or more cycles without energy loss. Maybe Dyson and his engineers do it, who knows. My bet is it comes out of Germany where they are very much deeply integrated with Solar. Now, they have started government incentive programs for EVs. Next, I think they will do V2G as the right way to balance the grid.

 

[Dutchie]

New update from Focus Fusion. One shot last week with fusion, next milestone is 10J energy output. Hopefully achieved in seven weeks

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/focus-fusion-empowertheworld--3#/updates

 

[bonaire]

Another good use of V2G. Airports. You show up on Monday - plugin. Then what, return Friday? Set the car up for "next use" of Friday and then participate in daily "breathing" of electricity from night-charge to peak load output. Airports are adding Solar PV as well, so if your car hears that the grid doesn't need all that power, then charge it up mid-day. If it is hot and cloudy, the car can dump power. On Friday, the Thursday night re-charge will have it ready for you. Simple algorithms that today's computer science students learn in their first and second year of college or in progressive STEP high schools. The problem with much of this implementation today is, regrettably is politics and political-led regulations.

 

[GSP]

New update from Focus Fusion. One shot last week with fusion, next milestone is 10J energy output. Hopefully achieved in seven weeks

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/focus-fusion-empowertheworld--3#/updates

10 Joules. Fantastic if they can produce so much energy, 10 complete Watt-seconds, or 0.0000028 kWh!

GSP

 

[Perfectlogic]

The problem with V2G as you also briefly mention yourself bonaire is that it will shorten the lifespan of the battery very significantly, at least with the current car battery tech. I'm not sure if it will ever make sense to do V2G as the car batteries would have to be engineered towards this goal. What I think makes more sense is that car batteries are engineered towards car use with a more limited cycle requirement and higher KW output. And then build some grid batteries more suited for that purpose, probably 2 types, some suited for daily cycling and a buffer type only meant to be tapped once a week or once a month. Perhaps a type that will store energy from one season to another if that is what we need, doesn't have to be a battery.

 

[bonaire]

The problem with V2G as you also briefly mention yourself bonaire is that it will shorten the lifespan of the battery very significantly, at least with the current car battery tech. I'm not sure if it will ever make sense to do V2G as the car batteries would have to be engineered towards this goal. What I think makes more sense is that car batteries are engineered towards car use with a more limited cycle requirement and higher KW output. And then build some grid batteries more suited for that purpose, probably 2 types, some suited for daily cycling and a buffer type only meant to be tapped once a week or once a month. Perhaps a type that will store energy from one season to another if that is what we need, doesn't have to be a battery.

And, then there is progress. Li-Ion used to be a 1500-cycle type of battery. Now 5000-8000+ cycles in some chemistries.

The point is - there WILL be a breakthrough allowing for lifespan of batteries to go 20,000 to ?? cycles. Do not downplay V2G because today's batteries have lithium plating problems. And then, can you see the huge implications of using the enormous car batteries in EVs for everything from grid stabilization to home backup power and solar pv storage?

Cars hardly "demand" high KW output. Driving a Tesla can be a 2-3 hour affair. That is 1/2 to 1/3 C discharge rates. That is nothing. The only time you need high KW is red light/green light acceleration. The same batteries can be used everywhere. Except the drag strip. Get high dump high power batteries for that. You want 10C discharge rates or higher for everything from the RC world (drones, cars and boats) to drag racing 1:1 scale cars and motorcycles. A car used in V2G will not dump at the same rate it uses for driving. It would be more limited - such as 1/10C where tens of thousands of cars participate but do not leave drivers stranded. By doing so, the equitable nature of dispursion works. Ever watch a bee-hive work? Thousands of bees bringing back micrograms of pollen to be combined into a vibrant, energy-rich collective. We need to work like nature and we'll end up using less resources - like nature. Nikola Tesla tapped one of the biggest liquid batteries in nature - the Great Lakes ecosystem. It still is dwarfed by the wind and solar resources out there. Ocean + Sun + Wind = rain = great lakes. And that system doesn't produce that much power. 4.8GW at niagara falls (both sides) to the up-lake dams and down river dams of the St. Lawrence totaling about 6GW of constant power. That's not much. We have to lower our resources, increase efficiency and start acting more like bees and less like elephants.