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People buying JASO Dec $18 options for example. The stock would have to double in 2 months just to make money. Extremely low probability play. Many other examples if you read back a couple of pages.

And then they say that they are "overpaying" just to get them...

Where as chances of it doubling in the next 6 months (March-June time frame...) are quite a bit higher? (though still low of course) I just wanted to make sure the options I bought weren't ridiculous because I used the phrase "overpaid" and wanted to make sure you weren't talking about me. I think it's extremely risky, but I didn't think it was ridiculous ;) It won't hurt my feelings if it was, I just want the truth!

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Very strange day of trading for CSIQ.....

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http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingma...ply-may-go-away-in-a-year-says-credit-suisse/

Analysts from Credit Suisse are amongst the few I will at least consider. Any comments on this article?

"Demand may approach tier I supply by late 2014 or 2015." I think that is an example of someone "starting to get it"
 
But to be fair, you can technically make money on something that far OTM even if the share price only goes up a couple dollars before expiration. May not be a best option choice in the world but its still viable for profits.

Exactly. There is still money to be made without it having to go up that much.

But that is a good reminder from @sleepy, thanks. It's easy to get carried away with solar b/c of the crazy growth it's having.

I understand this, but there is still no benefit in buying the Dec $18 call option, unless you know that the stock will be above $23 at expiration. In order to justify buying the $18's to sell for a quick profit, you will probably need the stock to move 40% by next week.

The $18's are out there only for the market makers to make money, they are a bad idea. In order to break even you will probably need the stock to go up 15%-20% by next week, 25% in 2 weeks, 30% in 3 weeks, 40% in 4 weeks, etc.

The potential reward for buying the $18's vs. $17's is miniscule, while the risk is significantly higher.

I am working on a website and would also like to cover options trading strategies and how I decide which options to buy.

Where as chances of it doubling in the next 6 months (March-June time frame...) are quite a bit higher? (though still low of course) I just wanted to make sure the options I bought weren't ridiculous because I used the phrase "overpaid" and wanted to make sure you weren't talking about me. I think it's extremely risky, but I didn't think it was ridiculous ;) It won't hurt my feelings if it was, I just want the truth!

Your June time frame is definitely correct, and March should have a chance as well. The problem is the price you paid for them, I got those same March calls at $0.50, while you paid $0.80. Even though I think they might finish in the money, at some point the price gets too steep that it is not worth the risk anymore. You could have gotten those same options at $0.65 later in the day; and that $0.15 will make a huge difference in return.

Right now the volatility is high on these options and they are not so great anymore. I bought mine two weeks ago during the weakness and consolidation period, when they were cheap. Right now I would be buying stock in JASO and not as many options. Buy and hold JASO is the best play, because it might take the market 6+ months before this stock goes up big. I know that it will, but don't know when. It is only a matter of time. It might happen over the next month or it might happen next summer.

Blah, and here I was sitting around hoping for a better entry point to load up on more of those $25 calls :)
When are the earnings, is 11/11 the official date?

This is not official and some websites lead you to believe that it is. We are also planning on having accurate earnings dates on our website. It is just so hard to get investment information on companies because everybody has outdated or incorrect data.
 
Your June time frame is definitely correct, and March should have a chance as well. The problem is the price you paid for them, I got those same March calls at $0.50, while you paid $0.80. Even though I think they might finish in the money, at some point the price gets too steep that it is not worth the risk anymore. You could have gotten those same options at $0.65 later in the day; and that $0.15 will make a huge difference in return.

Thanks for your advice, as always. Yeah, I was pretty bummed about the price difference just during that one day. I should've set a lower limit than I did and if it got away, it got away.
 
Thanks for your advice, as always. Yeah, I was pretty bummed about the price difference just during that one day. I should've set a lower limit than I did and if it got away, it got away.

Never set high options limit orders pre market, you will always get screwed. Same goes for selling.

Only time you want to do that is if their is a news story and you think that the market did not price in the story properly in pre-market. Otherwise, in case of JASO with no news and no big industry news, it is better to buy in the afternoon.

You may still do ok, but if I get a 10-bagger, you will only get a 6-bagger. I know that still sounds great, but I can strike out 5 times and still make 100% return. If you strike out 5 times before hitting the 6-bagger, you only broke even.

That is the key to playing options, every penny makes a huge difference.
 
Sleepy, what do you evaluate whether it's time to cash out options?

My gut feeling.

I am usually 100% invested at all times. So I just observe the market. When I feel that there is a great opportunity elsewhere, I sell one of my biggest winners (a portion of it) and then quickly turn around and buy the other opportunity. That is how I do things. But I have a very unique trading strategy that I developed on my own. I need some more time to see if it works, and then I will try to share everything I have learned about options. I am still in the learning stage, but have a lot of interesting stories/strategies to share.
 
I am still in the learning stage, but have a lot of interesting stories/strategies to share.
my (selfish) suggestion: go ahead and write some of these stories down while they are fresh in your memory. as many different trades that you make in the matter of a couple months, i'm guessing you may forget some stories many would find interesting and/or serve as good examples of the strategies you are planning on describing.

thanks in advance btw,
surfside
 
There really needs to a catalyst for SOL though. It's sad to see it getting beat up like this.
Yea, that'd be nice. It's been a mistake so far to double down when it's dipped. It's easily the worst performing stock in my portfolio. My Nov $6 are probably trash at this point, but the larger bulk is in Jan $5's, so those have a shot. Both seemed fairly safe bets at the time. Well, the 6's were a bit more of a gamble as the stock was at about 5.5 at the time.

Edit: Wow, most of the solars are over 7% down, brutal. Worst day of losses ever so far (not just solar). Yea, I said that a couple times already in the last week...very sadly it's been true each time. Been just a brutal month. Haven't felt like this since the 2008 crash.
 
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Wow.....big drops across the board. Feeling the hurt especially with CSIQ. I fortunately reduced my risk in solar a little in the last two days but this is a big move. Judgement day has come? Is there any new piece of news out there?

Well Asia is down, and a chinese mobile company(NQ) was just accused of being a fraud. However China is doing okey: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/24/us-china-economy-gdp-idUSBRE99N0BE20131024
And tho the growth is declining, I think its pretty obvious that solar will grow. If we keep doing 3-4% in the green every day, we can live with a red day in the week :)

I wish I had money to buy today, but I havent. REC Solar gave good results and rallyed 200% on the IPO. Sunpower will have earnings on Wednesday, hopefully this will be good. When institusions starts paying attention and pension funds starts buying there is no turning back.

Remember the apple-thread where almost all of them got wiped out. Do not lose money on Solar.
 
Days like this are needed, since these stocks can't go up every day. This is good for the buy and hold investor. Last time we had two days of heavy sell off like this, the stocks went up as much as 50% in a couple of weeks (CSIQ from early October low). Shake out the weak longs. Buy and hold will prevail, because there is too much volatility in the short run to try and time these stocks.