An Idea for fixed battery replacement cost - Tesla please read this

[Uncle Paul]

My understanding is that the intent is to offer a refresh for tired battery packs. Since there are lots of independent cells, they could just replace the fatigued ones with new, and the pack would then have a much longer extension on life.

No reason to replace all the ones that are still good.

 

[int32_t]

I have zero concerns about the battery lasting 15+ years. Battery degradation is slower than a snail's pace, and the battery won't ever completely fail -- it will just gradually lose its ability to store energy. This rate appears to be well under 3% per year, perhaps even 1% per year. Unlike your phone's battery, Tesla batteries are cared for very well by dedicated computers in the battery unit.

 

[wdolson]

I would have to disagree about modern ICE cars being long-lived and trouble free. Yes you can get 100k from any manufacture, but going to 200k in anything that isn't a toyota or honda requires a fair amount of maintenance including timing belts/ chains, valve adjustments, alternators, water pumps, cooling systems, catalytic convertors and exhaust systems. No way 200k from any performance / luxury brand (maybe lexus) is going to be without at least $5k maintenance on the drivetrain. God help you if serious engine or transmission occurs above 100k miles. .

I disagree. I have a 24 year old Buick. It only has about 150K on the odometer (I've been working at home for the last decade so I haven't been running up the miles commuting), but the car still has it's original starter, original water pump. The alternator went out at 7 years, before the original battery. The A/C was only converted from freon to the newer refrigerant about 8 years ago, even though freon became unavailable around 2000. The engine is sound but has a small manifold leak that has been there for about 5 years. It hasn't gotten any worse. The last time I had the transmission serviced the mechanic said it still looked new inside.

My mechanic said he'd buy it from me when if I ever sold it, but unfortunately he died of a heart attack last year.

The car easily has another 50K left in it before it will require any major work.

For those concerned about the long term life of the battery I do strongly recommend doing some searching for Tesla battery life surveys. There have been a number of them and I recall only seeing one car below 90% capacity. Some cars had over 100K miles and were still over 90% capacity.

Another thing to keep in mind is to condition the battery from time to time. The computer that manages the battery can get a setting that is artificially low because of the way it manages the batteries. If you charge the battery up to 100% once in a while (and then immediately drive the car), the conditioning algoritm can bring back some range that was artificially lost.

 

[JeffK]

Tesla batteries are cared for very well by dedicated computers in the battery unit.

I wish this were truly the case but people have had battery issues and batteries replaced (and I'm talking drive batteries not just the 12v problems). You could still suffer a coolant problem which would cause the battery to overheat as well. There are situations that could result in the battery going belly up all of a sudden,

 

[HanSolo]

The batteries on the Model 3 better damn well have a usable life that matches and exceeds the life of a regular car. if not, Tesla is going to have problems with the general public. Most manufactures these days engineer their cars to last about 150k miles or so. Your mileage may vary. The thing to remember Is that within the technology world, 8 years is an eternity and there are bound to be significant changes. I tend to buy a new car every 3 or so years because of the miles I drive, but having an 8 year unlimited mile warranty from Tesla might be sufficient enough for my needs. I drive about 30-40k miles a year and spread that between my Toyota and Ford(which has 150k miles right now). However this needs to be sufficient for your average person who may keep their car far in excess of 8 years because they do not drive enough miles to seriously wear down their car.

 

[JeffK]

The batteries on the Model 3 better damn well have a usable life that matches and exceeds the life of a regular car. if not, Tesla is going to have problems with the general public. Most manufactures these days engineer their cars to last about 150k miles or so. Your mileage may vary. The thing to remember Is that within the technology world, 8 years is an eternity and there are bound to be significant changes. I tend to buy a new car every 3 or so years because of the miles I drive, but having an 8 year unlimited mile warranty from Tesla might be sufficient enough for my needs. I drive about 30-40k miles a year and spread that between my Toyota and Ford(which has 150k miles right now). However this needs to be sufficient for your average person who may keep their car far in excess of 8 years because they do not drive enough miles to seriously wear down their car.

Supposedly lithium batteries have the potential to store a lot more energy than they do today... as soon as we can figure out how to stop them from falling apart from the volume change.

 

[wdolson]

Supposedly lithium batteries have the potential to store a lot more energy than they do today... as soon as we can figure out how to stop them from falling apart from the volume change.

I believe the theoretical upper limit is about 4X current energy density. Silicon in the anode is what is being used to boost capacity now and it does have a problem with swelling as it absorbs energy. Graphene is being discussed as the next frontier beyond silicon and it shows promise, but the material is currently too difficult to make in quantities larger than laboratory samples.

Using calcium instead of lithium may be another battery tech on the horizon.

With everything we know about today as possible materials, it currently looks like the limit for batteries is about 4X today's density.

EVs are far more energy efficient though, which means they don't have to get to the same energy density as gasoline before have ranges up there with the best ranged ICEs.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

I've heard that the battery pack has an afterlife. Once it no longer serves in a driving mode, it can be utilized as a powerwall (same features, just less range anxiety). It can be disassembled and the bad cells removed. When fully junk, it can be recycled.

 

[Tiberius]

Resale price on 5 year old mustangs is garbage (with good reason) but they're flying out of the showroom. Not sure if resale price is that big of a factor.

Also, I doubt we're going to be coming up with a pricing/sales/support strategy that Tesla hasn't already thought of.

Finally, tesla has their own forum. If you want to get a message to them you would have better luck there.

 

[ohmman]

mod note: Thread renamed for more clarity per request.

 

[int32_t]

I wish this were truly the case but people have had battery issues and batteries replaced (and I'm talking drive batteries not just the 12v problems). You could still suffer a coolant problem which would cause the battery to overheat as well. There are situations that could result in the battery going belly up all of a sudden,

Meh. If there's a coolant issue the car will complain before it's a big problem. Also, those "battery issues" which required the replacement of the pack actually had nothing to do with the battery ... just the HV contactors inside the pack which keep the HV inside in case of, um, emergency. If a Service Centre was ambitious they could have just removed the pack, replaced the contactors, and re-inserted the pack.

I'm still not concerned about battery longevity.

 

[CarlitoDoc]

I doubt that my Touareg will make it to 50K miles without any major "issues" (I know, they're crap). Modern ICE cars -for the most part- aren't that great, they almost feel disposable. After reading most of the posts I agree that a loss in battery capacity of 5-10% after 8-10 years seems reasonable. I can live with that.

 

[JeffK]

just the HV contactors inside the pack which keep the HV inside in case of, um, emergency

See, this is what leads me to believe that in order to prevent more warranty work they will start placing the newer inconel connectors for ludicrous mode in all battery packs regardless if the car has ludicrous or not.

 

[int32_t]

See, this is what leads me to believe that in order to prevent more warranty work they will start placing the newer inconel connectors for ludicrous mode in all battery packs regardless if the car has ludicrous or not.

I could be wrong but I think this was an issue with just A-packs or B-packs (or maybe even a subset of one). The issue, as far as I know, doesn't exist anymore even on packs without Inconel.

 

[Zythryn]

Actually this is exactly my point. There will be people (for whatever reason) who will want to keep their car for 10 years or more. Then there is the whole used car market where people get 4 or 5 year old used cars and keep it for another 5 or 6 years. Tesla will have to have an answer for these use-cases in order to go mainstream.

It is fine for a Tesla S owner to say I will get a 100k car brand new and will replace it with another new one regardless of residual value and before warranty expires but the mainstream car market / demographic that Model 3 targets will want to consider several other factors including residual value.

Your point is unanswerable.
I challenge you to estimate what the cost of a 70kWh batter will cost in ten years.

As previously pointed out, Tesla did offer this idea when the Model S went on sale. My guess is they stopped because no one took them up on the price point.

Battery capabilities are growing quickly as prices are decreasing. It is difficult to guess what prices will be in three years, ten is simply to far out.

 

[gene]

I'm seeing that those people who do not own Tesla's are the ones doing all the worrying about battery life. Those with personal experience through ownership are not worrying. In the case of the video on page one, that fellow's calculation of 72% range after 150,000 miles was with 100% range charge every day. Nobody does that, almost everyone is fine with 80% or less daily charge. His example of 72% after 150,000 miles with a 100% charge every day was to show worst case scenario.

In my case, I have 3.5 years, 70,000 miles and I still charge to 97% range. This is more the rule than the exception with the Model S.

I drive a lot of multi-hundred mile road trips. Rarely, if ever, do I go more than 200 miles without stopping at a supercharger. I expect my battery will easily go over 200 miles even after 200,000 or many more miles on the car. It really simply is not an issue.

 

[Gremlin]

When I bought the car I had 208 miles. 42k miles later see for yourself.

What is the battery replacement cost?

23,500k for the 90 D if I remember the email correctly from Tesla that I wasn't suppose to see (six months ago)

 

[HanSolo]

I'm seeing that those people who do not own Tesla's are the ones doing all the worrying about battery life. Those with personal experience through ownership are not worrying. In the case of the video on page one, that fellow's calculation of 72% range after 150,000 miles was with 100% range charge every day. Nobody does that, almost everyone is fine with 80% or less daily charge. His example of 72% after 150,000 miles with a 100% charge every day was to show worst case scenario.

In my case, I have 3.5 years, 70,000 miles and I still charge to 97% range. This is more the rule than the exception with the Model S.

I drive a lot of multi-hundred mile road trips. Rarely, if ever, do I go more than 200 miles without stopping at a supercharger. I expect my battery will easily go over 200 miles even after 200,000 or many more miles on the car. It really simply is not an issue.

Probably because at this lower price point, it brings in a different group of folks from a whole new income bracket. We tend to be more sensitive to such potential costs down the road. YouTube is filled with videos that do not help us set aside our fears.

 

[gene]

Probably because at this lower price point, it brings in a different group of folks from a whole new income bracket. We tend to be more sensitive to such potential costs down the road. YouTube is filled with videos that do not help us set aside our fears.

Hello Hans, The point I was trying to make is that aside from income brackets, where I can see that the lower income means you have to be more careful about possible costs, it is those of us who have actual Model S experience with how the battery is lasting a very long time. I'd like to assure those nervous about the Model 3 battery life, that this is a non-issue. Nissan Leaf's have had problems that has become a disservice to the adoption of EV's. The Model 3 battery may be even better at long life than the Model S battery which already has a very long life. Leave your worries behind on this issue, no more sleepless nights, simply enjoy your wait for the Model 3.

 

[jsanford]

I hope they will be able to replace some of the batteries in the pack if they go bad before others.

My Insight battery pack had to be completely replaced after *one* cell went below tolerance, which seemed excessive.