An Idea for fixed battery replacement cost - Tesla please read this

[AZ Desert Driver]

I agree that Tesla sells new cars and the used market is none of their business. But, as an owner, I MUST factor in residual value to get ownership cost. On a lease, there is a quoted value, implying there is a resale value to a purchase. I know about the huge recycle value to the battery pack - but can't put a price on it. I appreciate the uncertainty of future value on battery packs. Easy to follow the creation and reuse of the components, but the price is foggy. Hence "wildcard".
So, Tesla could set prices...or KBB could set prices. Which would be better at it for the industry?

 

[Johan]

Has there been widespread reports of the Model S losing a large part of it's capacity in the 4 years it has been out?

No. The short answer to this is that battery capacity is holding up better than most had dared hope.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

With the cost per kWh expected to plummet in the next 3-5 years alone, I'd be skeptical of pre-paying, unless the cost of the pre-pay was extrapolated out to the expected future cost.

If not, I'll take my chances.

 

[garsh]

By the way I was wrong. It's about 10 years and still has about 72% of its available charge

I'm at 4 years with my Leaf and already down to 75% of my battery. I can't wait to replace it with a 3.

 

[Mark C]

Great informative video about battery degredation. About the 12 minute mark he talks about long term life. By the way I was wrong. It's about 10 years and still has about 72% of its available charge.

Dan

And this is why I plan to buy a $35k {Base price} Model 3 and not a $30k Nissan Leaf. The Leaf looks to hit around 70% of capacity in 5 or 6 years {unless it's real hot where you live}. 70% of their 24kWh, 85 mile range makes the car unable to be used for my commute in the winter months, and the 30 kWh, 110 mile version would be getting a bit close for comfort. With 215 miles opening range and @ 10 years still having about 150 miles range means I just keep on riding and smiling. 99.5% of my trips are substantially less than 150 miles.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

No. The short answer to this is that battery capacity is holding up better than most had dared hope.

johan - I just got your signature - Bears blood type are to be negative on TESLA- Cute. I like puns.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

There is a thread "battery table" that seems to deep-explore the actual life of many Tesla battery packs. Those guys are smarter than me, but if I can summarize --- old packs were good, but some had flaws; newer packs are very good and are getting better, but still have occasional failures. packs are getting bigger and price per kw is dropping. Tesla packs are better than "the other guys" .

You smart guys - did I get the message right?

 

[Johan]

There is a thread "battery table" that seems to deep-explore the actual life of many Tesla battery packs. Those guys are smarter than me, but if I can summarize --- old packs were good, but some had flaws; newer packs are very good and are getting better, but still have occasional failures. packs are getting bigger and price per kw is dropping. Tesla packs are better than "the other guys" .

You smart guys - did I get the message right?

Obviously you weren't talking to me but I'll answer anyway: Yes, in essence. This likely has to do with Tesla's cooling, the size of the pack which means it can for a very large part of the time operate within a very comfortable (non degradation causing) current span and the infrequent need for complete discharge and 100% charges. In addition the individual cells are very high quality with very low variability in capacity and the Battery Management of the pack makes for very very even balancing and thus wear when comparing individual cells.

 

[JeffK]

The battery is one of the most expensive things in the car so free battery replacements outside the warranty seem unreasonable.

Plus Elon did say you could potentially purchase different batteries for your cars in the future. If manufacturing costs go down on the battery pack per kW and capacity goes up then in the future you're potentially getting either a better battery, or maybe they'll be able to have a cheap replacement for legacy vehicles. I'd also imagine there'd be a market for used batteries or from crashed vehicles.

The price of a new battery is probably going to be 6000 - 12000. The only time you'd NEED a new battery is if it either fails or the range becomes unreasonably low at which point you might want a new, more advanced, battery instead of a straight replacement.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

If it is that much of a concern then I would set aside $100/month for the time you own the car. At the point where the battery would no longer be under warrantee you would have $9600 saved to replace it...although it would still have about 80% of its capacity available.

Dan

 

[ecarfan]

Has there been widespread reports of the Model S losing a large part of it's capacity in the 4 years it has been out?

No, there have not.

After 2 1/2 years and 44K miles, my S85 charges to 256 Ideal Miles. When new it charged to 265. That is about a 3% capacity loss. It is an established fact that on average, the highest percentage annual loss is in the initial year and after that the loss is typically 1% or less per year (see the Plugin America study). That's trivial. After a decade, a Tesla will still have a very usable battery.

I do not think it is necessary for Tesla to do what the OP describes. EV skeptics will gradually be won over by the steadily increasing adoption of EVs over time, by Tesla producing and selling more and more cars every year and continuously expanding the Supercharger network, and by satisfied EV owners talking about their cars.

 

[Menifeer]

Has there been widespread reports of the Model S losing a large part of it's capacity in the 4 years it has been out?

That's my concern. If the battery is still officially "good" (i.e., not eligible for warranty replacement), but can't provide the range we want after a few years, we'll be very disappointed.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

That's my concern. If the battery is still officially "good" (i.e., not eligible for warranty replacement), but can't provide the range we want after a few years, we'll be very disappointed.

So if my ICE no longer has the performance or gets the same mpg it got when new should I be disappointed? ALL cars lose a little with age. The only question you have to answer is, if say 250 rather than 270 miles of range, after 8 years or so is reasonable. I think most people are going to find that reasonable.

Dan

 

[Menifeer]

So if my ICE no longer has the performance or gets the same mpg it got when new should I be disappointed? ALL cars lose a little with age. The only question you have to answer is, if say 250 rather than 270 miles of range, after 8 years or so is reasonable. I think most people are going to find that reasonable.

A negligible reduction in range from 270 to 250 would likely not concern anyone, but until we have data on lots of cars at the 8-yar point, we don't know what reduction to expect.

Complicated as they are, modern ICE cars are surprisingly long-lived and trouble-free. When I review the topic that says what cars we're coming from, many people mention 10-20 year old cars that still run fine with routine maintenance. I've owned many cars from different manufacturers and, except for a '71 VW Bus that swallowed its #3 valve, have never had a drivetrain issue (engine, transmission, axle). Several of those cars were past 100K when I sold them. I never had the sense that performance deteriorated (hard to recognize gradual change, of course) and that was never the reason for selling.

I don't mean to come off as being anti-EV. I have been a strong supporter for longer than most and intend to be an owner, but I'm keeping my eyes open in the process.

 

[Johan]

Look, the simple reason why Tesla aren't talking about this issued and never did offer the pre-paid battery replacement deal after all is:

1. They have the 8 year unlimited miles warranty on the drive train instead (which doesn't cover "normal degradation", I know)
2. They don't want unnecessary focus on the issue of degradation because it scares people off sometimes.
3. They know that by the time degradation really starts to become an issue (likely after either 10+ years or earlier if say 200000 miles or more are driven) the battery technology and pricing will have progressed more than most people can fathom.
4. An "85 kWh" battery has far from 85 kWh usable energy. What's to say that if range drops too low die to degradation they won't "unlock" that last capacity (allow slightly higher max voltage and deeper discharges) this prolonging the useful life of the pack even more?

 

[Chopr147]

So if my ICE no longer has the performance or gets the same mpg it got when new should I be disappointed? ALL cars lose a little with age. The only question you have to answer is, if say 250 rather than 270 miles of range, after 8 years or so is reasonable. I think most people are going to find that reasonable.

Dan

Good point! ANY car you buy will have some form of wear. Some loss of HP,MPG etc... But for myself the unknowns of battery degradation long term (has shown signs battery will be good down the road) and also future R & D = improvements etc... have me thinking lease. I have had 2 cars in 20 years and planned on buying and keeping the 3 but the tech advances have me a bit undecided. I have 18 months to make up my mind

 

[Craig9080]

They just hired a new battery engineer...they are trying to get away from batter swaps.

 

[30seconds]

A negligible reduction in range from 270 to 250 would likely not concern anyone, but until we have data on lots of cars at the 8-yar point, we don't know what reduction to expect.

Complicated as they are, modern ICE cars are surprisingly long-lived and trouble-free. When I review the topic that says what cars we're coming from, many people mention 10-20 year old cars that still run fine with routine maintenance. I've owned many cars from different manufacturers and, except for a '71 VW Bus that swallowed its #3 valve, have never had a drivetrain issue (engine, transmission, axle). Several of those cars were past 100K when I sold them. I never had the sense that performance deteriorated (hard to recognize gradual change, of course) and that was never the reason for selling.

I don't mean to come off as being anti-EV. I have been a strong supporter for longer than most and intend to be an owner, but I'm keeping my eyes open in the process.

I would have to disagree about modern ICE cars being long-lived and trouble free. Yes you can get 100k from any manufacture, but going to 200k in anything that isn't a toyota or honda requires a fair amount of maintenance including timing belts/ chains, valve adjustments, alternators, water pumps, cooling systems, catalytic convertors and exhaust systems. No way 200k from any performance / luxury brand (maybe lexus) is going to be without at least $5k maintenance on the drivetrain. God help you if serious engine or transmission occurs above 100k miles. .

 

[csphili]

Because they expect the cost of batteries to fall significantly but they aren't sure precisely how much, a reasonable "guarantee" price quoted today would have to be higher than the price they expect to offer at some point in the future. This could make them look bad without providing any tangible benefit.

And since the mission statement is to "Accelerate the advent of sustainable transport", they probably don't want to waste battery manufacturing capability on replacing old batteries that still have 80% range. It will be better to put that battery into a new car for the foreseeable future.

 

[gigglehertz]

I think it would be a great idea for Tesla to continue to make batteries of the same form factor and allow owners to purchase a new battery and have it installed in their (for example) 15 year old car. Imagine what sort of capacity would be standard in 15 years - 200 kWh would not be out of the question!

I said the same thing several months ago on here and got reamed for being stupid. I'll say it again though: Elon should promise to sell replacement battery packs for the 3 forever. Not give them away, not sell them at cost, but sell them. Sure other cars wear out, but that's the point, is that EV's should be superior. With a new pack every 10-15 years the car should last a lifetime. Elon said their goal was a million mile drive train. That's going to need a new battery eventually.