An Update to our Supercharging Program

[stopcrazypp]

While I appreciate that Tesla is doing something to limit SC abuse, their plan is incredibly crude and/or disingenuous for a technology company. The whole point of the SC network is to enable long distance trips. 400kW of SC charging is not much long distance travel in a year.

400kWh a year represents about 1300 miles, which is pretty much right at 10% of annual travel of your typical American. This works out also be around how much long distance trips your average American makes per year, and also the number Tesla uses for their gas savings calculator.

Tesla knows where the cars live, either honestly by how we are registered, or via the log data by where we charge 90% of the time. They could have implemented a 100kW budget within 50 miles of home, and unlimited for when we are away from home. That would curb abuse and continue with the original spirit of the network.

Some kind of "home" based scheme had been suggested by lots of people, but given how Tesla screwed up the local supercharging letters, this will probably lead to more complaining, complexity, and a poor customer experience. The current method is straightforward and "fair" to everyone, even though it abandons the original spirit (arguably they already done that starting with introducing "local" supercharger stations somewhere in 2014/2015).

My personal suggestion is for Tesla to install paid urban stations and keep all the other stations free, but it doesn't seem Tesla will do that (although it's still possible, if they whitelist certain stations).

Instead, the next step we will see, probably in Q2 2017, will be going back to the old system of selling unlimited SC use as a purchase option "because our customers requested it". Take it away, then give it back for a price. This is basically just a poorly hidden price increase beginning 2017; more clumsy Tesla marketing.

Maybe SC network will not be a profit center, but Tesla has de facto implemented an approach that will at least make them self funding. Not a bad idea as it is their only strategic competitive advantage, but very disingenuous.

I don't see them going back to the old system. The old system was contingent on Tesla being Nostradamus in terms of predicting demand, which I think they failed to do in the first go around, which is why they introduced this system. I agree with the others, that most likely there will be discounted blocks of kWh for large volume users (cheaper if you prepay for more).

 

[jerry33]

400kWh a year represents about 1300 miles, which is pretty much right at 10% of annual travel of your typical American. This works out also be around how much long distance trips your average American makes per year, and also the number Tesla uses for their gas savings calculator.

I'd suggest that the average Tesla owner drives much further on long distance trips than that. Speaking for myself, 78K miles in 3.75 years with about half the miles for long distance equals about 10K miles per year of long distance travel. And there are many that drive far more than I do.

I am very suspicious of any "average American" number when it comes to car traveling distance because that includes people who have older cars that just barely make it to work and back. Also some of these numbers come from a few years back when high gas prices limited the amount of long distance driving.

 

[MP3Mike]

While I appreciate that Tesla is doing something to limit SC abuse, their plan is incredibly crude and/or disingenuous for a technology company. The whole point of the SC network is to enable long distance trips. 400kW of SC charging is not much long distance travel in a year.

And how does this change make it so that the SC network doesn't enable long distance trips? You can still do them, they just won't all be free.

The SC network is still there doing exactly what it should be doing. Making it so you can drive your Tesla to almost anywhere without having to wait overnight to recharge every ~200 miles.

 

[brianman]

Speaking for myself, 78K miles in 3.75 years with about half the miles for long distance equals about 10K miles per year of long distance travel.

Just another data point...

TesS is around 46k miles. Delivered Nov 2012.
Mercury is around 37k miles. Delivered Apr 2015.

Single driver, so effectively 83k "Model S" miles in 4 years as of mid-next week.


For me the big question is what they plan to charge. Does the pricing vary by location, i.e. do I 'buy' California kWh blocks at a different rate than Washington? Is it different by continent? Likely "flat pricing" will be the model for simplicity, which means expensive -- if you're comparing to the < 12c / kWh that I pay in WA for power at home.

If you consider 20k miles / yr and "400 kWh gets you 1300 miles"... that maps to 6154 kWh. That's roughly $738 / yr of electricity at the 12c rate. I'm confident Tesla will use a higher rate, so it's likely double or triple that. So $1500 to $2000 / yr on supercharging if you do it exclusively. That's a decent chunk of change... maybe worth it to pick up an unlimited (AP2, 100kWh) replacement for Mercury before the bell tolls.

 

[MP3Mike]

Likely "flat pricing" will be the model for simplicity, which means expensive

They have already said it would vary by region: "prices may fluctuate over time and vary regionally based on the cost of electricity".

But I guess we will know more in the next month or so. (Since the details will need to be released before January.)

 

[jerry33]

If you consider 20k miles / yr and "400 kWh gets you 1300 miles"... that maps to 6154 kWh. That's roughly $738 / yr of electricity at the 12c rate. I'm confident Tesla will use a higher rate, so it's likely double or triple that. So $1500 to $2000 / yr on supercharging if you do it exclusively.

You could cut that down some by doing a full range charge at home before you leave and at every destination opportunity when on a trip. I guess they will have to revise the "gas savings" in the Design Studio to almost zero.

 

[brianman]

You could cut that down some by doing a full range charge at home before you leave and at every destination opportunity when on a trip. I guess they will have to revise the "gas savings" in the Design Studio to almost zero.

For a roundtrip from Seattle to silicon valley (which I make 2-3 times a year), leaving with a full range charge doesn't mean much in the overall tally.

Such trips already take about 50% longer in a Model S than they did in my ICE. Growing the travel cost is rubbing salt in a bit.

 

[brkaus]

You could cut that down some by doing a full range charge at home before you leave and at every destination opportunity when on a trip. I guess they will have to revise the "gas savings" in the Design Studio to almost zero.

Not really. The calc assumed 10% of the 10-15k miles are on super chargers. So just a minor revision.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I'd suggest that the average Tesla owner drives much further on long distance trips than that. Speaking for myself, 78K miles in 3.75 years with about half the miles for long distance equals about 10K miles per year of long distance travel. And there are many that drive far more than I do.

That's anecdotal, which is not what Tesla cares about. What they care about would be what the whole fleet is doing. There's definitely a feedback loop where the free charging encourages people to take longer trips, but supercharger usage was also around that number (5.5% in mid-2014, 8.6% in mid-2015), which is likely why Tesla modeled their gas savings calculator at the same 10%.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1428093/

Basically if superchargers are used only for longer trips, then the number should approach the 10% mark, but not reach past that (non-USA vehicles will bring average down worldwide). As I noted in my post linked, the introduction of the idea of local city superchargers pretty much threw a monkey wrench into this assumption, and I think this move addresses that.

I am very suspicious of any "average American" number when it comes to car traveling distance because that includes people who have older cars that just barely make it to work and back. Also some of these numbers come from a few years back when high gas prices limited the amount of long distance driving.

Yes, that statistic would include older cars, which exactly matches what Tesla has to predict. Their cost model must account for the entire lifetime of the vehicle (including when the car is old).

The number I referenced in that post (15.9% of miles being trips 100 miles or longer) is from the 2009 survey, when there were historically low gas prices. The speculation that long distance miles (for supercharger-worthy trips closer to 200 miles or longer) is closer to 10% is my own, but I feel it's a good guess.

You can also look at the other years and it was not much different:
Percent of vehicle trips 100+ miles:
1995: 14.67%
2001: 15.27%
2009: 15.92%
NHTS Data Extraction Tool

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Looking through this thread it is interesting to observe that the current owners of car / charging privileges do not seem to mind the least that others will not be allowed to benefit in similar ways. The argument brought forward that this is a good development for the company/world/sc line management.

So it would be even better if those electrically privileged current oh so supportive Tesla owners would follow their views and give up their free charging spots and started to pay in favor of Tesla or someone in need of free SC charging. Doesn't this otherwise come across as rather self serving?
Any volunteers?

Not sure how you're getting that observation, but I'm currently a non-owner and would definitely be one of those people affected by this change, because I have a model 3 reservation. Yet I'm okay with this policy change. Maybe I'm just too observant and paid attention to the fact that free supercharger for life was never promised for model 3 owners? Or maybe, it was just too reasonable for Tesla to let future model S & X buyers know beforehand that there's a deadline for when the old policy would still apply to their purchase?

The only way you'd be miffed by this change is if you were depending on milking that free supercharger charge for all your driving needs. Access to the supercharger network is still there, it just won't be free energy for the model 3 owners. And if you want to talk about fairness, why is it fair that I have to budget about $600 annually for electricity for my model 3 (to charge @ home), while others expect the supercharger network to provide all the electricity for them? If paying for your energy use would tilt your decision away from getting a model 3, then perhaps that's not the right car for you anyway?

 

[zdre]

Will the older 60kWh and 40kWh cars that were not purchased with supercharging be able to charge for credits?

 

[Dcr26]

I think everyone knew this was coming for the M3, but so soon for the S/X is a bit startling. The S/X keep getting more and more expensive. Soon they (S/X) will only be for the well off to buy. Sad, sort of...

Soon? I always thought the s/x is for rich people

 

[Dcr26]

Hold On. Isn't there a rule that if you are not a utility or EV Charging company (aka Blink, Charge Point) you cannot charge for electricity?

If true tesla can create an ev charging co subsidiary.

 

[Dcr26]

Yes, nothing changes for current owners.

Unless you think they'll change that for current owners, which makes me laugh.

It's like Toyota selling you a car and promising free gasoline fill ups, then two years later they send you a letter telling you to go **** yourself, and in case you're not fluent in English, they will also include a photo of a hand giving you the middle finger.

In some other cultures that picture denotes "you are number 1!"

 

[Dcr26]

Good. This would be awesome if they also implement the "idle time" charge that was spotted in the website code a few months back. I really hope they also implement the idle time charge for even current owners. Grandfather in current owners (and new ones for the last couple of months of this year) for free supercharging, by all means, but charge for time they spend clogging superchargers, using them as their personal parking space after they've finished charging.

Totally agree with charging fines for hogging space and parking/not actively charging

 

[Dcr26]

Tesla never clearly communicated the policy before. A simple Elon statement was not clear, and then local representatives said different things.

I personally know a couple that cannot charge in their condo in San Francisco. It is a newer building with jammed parking garage and to install electricity in their spot would be ridiculously expensive - like $100K plus. Retrofitting is not an easy answer. Commercial public chargers are not free. They aren't inexpensive but not costly but not also located at every street corner either.

Luckily, they have another small home and charging at an office, so they aren't abusing superchargers that I know of.

Evs are still not for everybody

 

[Dcr26]

I was thinking that as well but Tesla would likely consider a new purchase

I think the fine print said order by 12/31 and take delivery by 4/1 to be grandfathered. That would include leases

 

[GTIceman]

I think the fine print said order by 12/31 and take delivery by 4/1 to be grandfathered. That would include leases

Another member contacted Tesla and they said buying out your lease at the end would be included as to Tesla Motors it is not a new purchase, you are buying from the financing company even if Tesla Lease Holdings

 

[Haskel]

This was needed, one question will unlimited go with the vehicle or the owner? Clearly it is setup based on vehicle order date and or delivery but for those of us who are here already I would very much like it if I replace the S in the future with a Tesla vehicle to be grandfathered in. We keep on being told how we are paying for all the model 3's, etc...

Does this mean Tesla will add more Superchargers?

 

[jgs]

But to continue to advocate nonsense like banning me from charging my car at all, using a service I did in fact pay for and do have a contract to use -- gee, thanks, gosh, that's helpful.

Why exactly do you care what schemes the bikeshed brigade concoct and advocate for? Clearly, cooler heads have prevailed in Fremont. That's all that really matters.

P.S.: "Fewer". And "arrant". I know, it's annoying, so sue me.