Anyone waiting for tonight's financials before pulling the trigger?

[rdcisneros3]

Information is old (2019), so dont know if its still on track, but I havent seen anything that says otherwise. https://electrek.co/2019/04/23/tesla-battery-million-miles-elon-musk/

In regards to summer timeframe, I think there was a more recent article that I read that in, Ill try and look for it. But there will be more news on it soon - Here's how the million-mile battery could lead to Teslas lasting a lifetime

Yeah, it would be pretty big news if they give a start date for new builds getting the new battery tech.

 

[dmurphy]

Model 3 will still sell as fast as it comes off the line. Maybe, but thats a huge assumption to make.

Even the Q4 earnings release mentioned that they expect to produce more in 2020 than they deliver. So that's already been priced into their plan for 2020. Contrary to what it appears, that's a GOOD thing - frankly 11 days' worth of inventory is ABSURDLY low.

Traditional automakers carry somewhere around 60 days of inventory. Even if Tesla had 3x the amount of cars sitting in inventory, they'd still be half the industry benchmark.

Unconcerned, and don't see a firesale on Model 3 anytime soon. Sorry.

 

[anon125110]

Even the Q4 earnings release mentioned that they expect to produce more in 2020 than they deliver. So that's already been priced into their plan for 2020. Contrary to what it appears, that's a GOOD thing - frankly 11 days' worth of inventory is ABSURDLY low.

Traditional automakers carry somewhere around 60 days of inventory. Even if Tesla had 3x the amount of cars sitting in inventory, they'd still be half the industry benchmark.

Unconcerned, and don't see a firesale on Model 3 anytime soon. Sorry.

I think there is some misunderstanding going on. I am sure Model 3 (and Tesla overall) will remain extremely popular for years to come. All I was saying is that I am willing to bet (and am betting, by holding off my purchase) that by the end of 2020 I will be able to buy it for cheaper (either actually cash value or it will have more/better features), than if I bought it today. Its a bet. Thats all it is. There is a 50/50 chance I am completely wrong. But this thread was asking if anyone is waiting to pull the trigger. So I just said that I am, and gave my reasons.

Historically prices on Teslas have been dropping year over year. Why would that change now? Can it change now? Sure... but I think there is plenty of reasons to think that further drops may happen. Again.. its a bet I am making... Im not guaranteeing anything. Vegas baby.

 

[brkaus]

Of course the cars will continue to improve at a similar cost. It’s in the new technology stage.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Order fee for Y now $100 with 19” Gemini’s now standard. No more RWD option for time being.

 

[Booma]

I think there is some misunderstanding going on. I am sure Model 3 (and Tesla overall) will remain extremely popular for years to come. All I was saying is that I am willing to bet (and am betting, by holding off my purchase) that by the end of 2020 I will be able to buy it for cheaper (either actually cash value or it will have more/better features), than if I bought it today. Its a bet. Thats all it is. There is a 50/50 chance I am completely wrong. But this thread was asking if anyone is waiting to pull the trigger. So I just said that I am, and gave my reasons.

Historically prices on Teslas have been dropping year over year. Why would that change now? Can it change now? Sure... but I think there is plenty of reasons to think that further drops may happen. Again.. its a bet I am making... Im not guaranteeing anything. Vegas baby.

I think there will be upgrades in 2020 but I'm sick of getting 60 miles a charge on the leaf so I'll take the risk now. If I had to bet I would expect pricing to stay more or less flat in 2020 (+/- 5%), but I'm sure new tech will be introduced.

As you said, I asked if anyone was holding back to see what Tesla offers on the earnings call. I hope you're right and they are able to continue to offer more for less because I love what Tesla is about and want it to improve. I won't be upset if they release upgraded batteries and drop prices because I made the conscious choice to place my order today.

My biggest concern from the call is the loss of stealth behind the scenes. I was really hoping to pick up a stealth model but that seems to be out the window now.

 

[Federico]

That’s pretty optimistic. Maybe I should...if nothing else then I can say I’m a shareholder once again.

As it is I already have two standing orders SR3 Base White/White and LYD Blue/White.

It was a good ER, my monthly Feb call doubled their price, my weekly (2/7) triple the price (per my calculation based on the actual $645 price).

 

[Booma]

It was a good ER, my monthly Feb call doubled their price, my weekly (2/7) triple the price (per my calculation based on the actual $645 price).

Looks like you had the best idea of all. I should have listened!

 

[jpfive]

Even the Q4 earnings release mentioned that they expect to produce more in 2020 than they deliver. So that's already been priced into their plan for 2020. Contrary to what it appears, that's a GOOD thing - frankly 11 days' worth of inventory is ABSURDLY low.

Traditional automakers carry somewhere around 60 days of inventory. Even if Tesla had 3x the amount of cars sitting in inventory, they'd still be half the industry benchmark.

Unconcerned, and don't see a firesale on Model 3 anytime soon. Sorry.

When comparing these days of supply numbers against traditional manufacturers, please consider that those cars are sitting on dealer's lots, not at the factories. It will be tougher for Tesla to stockpile 60 days of supply than for GM or Ford. That said, some excess of cars is a good thing.

 

[dmurphy]

When comparing these days of supply numbers against traditional manufacturers, please consider that those cars are sitting on dealer's lots, not at the factories. It will be tougher for Tesla to stockpile 60 days of supply than for GM or Ford. That said, some excess of cars is a good thing.

Absolutely agree - 60 days is too much for Tesla, but I think 11 days is too little. We don't necessarily want huge lots of Teslae all over teh place, but having a handful for immediate delivery at the showroom locations isn't a bad thing either. Would like to see them get back to about a 2 week wait time for vehicle delivery. The current situation at the start of Q1 is a little dry (ok, way dry). I feel bad for anyone ordering in January that won't see a car until March.

It's not necessarily impatience, but you can very well lose sales that way when you have someone, say, with an expiring lease or replacing a total loss or some such.

I can tell you - we came close to a total loss on our Enclave in October, and if it really was a 10-week delay for a Tesla, that would've probably removed it from contention. Waiting 2+ months would certainly tilt the tables when I can have another vehicle within days, when I'm in dire need of a car.

So yes - I agree; we don't necessarily want 60+ days' worth of inventory lying around out there, but 3x current would be about a months' worth, and that seems reasonable to my naive not-in-the-car-industry-so-I'm-just-armchair-quarterbacking brain ...