April 30th Event SPECULATION: 100kWh Battery + 2.8s 0-60 Model S to be announced?

[stevej119]

Frankly, the 70D is a very minor update compared to what a 100-105kWH would be. They were updating the low end of the line. Let me put it a different way: what benefit does Tesla get going to 100 soon? More demand? They can't meet what they have. Better manufacturing synergy? Nope, they just have to use more cells per car now and maybe cells that are in shorter supply due to new chemistry.

So please explain the sense of this. The 70D adds a few cells, perhaps settles the line on a single cell type and simplifies the line by making most cars AWD.

It all depends upon your definition of "soon." To me, "soon" is whenever the Model X hits the design studio. At that point, S orders will come to a grinding halt if S has a smaller battery than X. That is the "sense" of introducing a larger battery "soon." And that's why, after selling my five month old 85S a few days ago, I'm sitting tight for now.

My definition of "soon" is any time in the next 90 days. I'm sure a lot of others here at TMC are thinking 1-10 days when they read soon. It's all a matter of perspective.

 

[krisg81]

Design studio will look like this very soon, IMO:


MODEL S

70D
85D (no more single motor config)
P100D (want the longer 300ish EPA range + better performance? Step up to the P100D)


MODEL X

85D (240ish EPA range)
P100D (275ish EPA range)

 

[Andyw2100]

To me, "soon" is whenever the Model X hits the design studio. At that point, S orders will come to a grinding halt if S has a smaller battery than X.

I disagree about S orders grinding to a halt if X has a bigger battery.

The S and X are very different vehicles. As a recent S purchaser, I wouldn't consider the X. I don't want or need an SUV, and I greatly prefer the styling of the S over what I've seen of the X. I think the falcon wing doors are one of those things that you either love or hate. I think there are plenty of people who, like me, would not consider an X over an S.

 

[krisg81]

I disagree about S orders grinding to a halt if X has a bigger battery.

The S and X are very different vehicles. As a recent S purchaser, I wouldn't consider the X. I don't want or need an SUV, and I greatly prefer the styling of the S over what I've seen of the X. I think the falcon wing doors are one of those things that you either love or hate. I think there are plenty of people who, like me, would not consider an X over an S.

I agree with this. The Model S has just as much, if not more storage/cargo space than many SUV's on the market now, excluding the large ones. The Model X is literally a taller version of the Model S with more ground clearance and gimmicky falcon doors. Since the Model S has AWD, performs better, and will get better range/efficiency with the same battery size - it would be tough to justify getting a Model X over an S. I think many people are going to be surprised when they can't even open the rear doors in their garage. I still think those doors will come back to bite them..

 

[gregincal]

I disagree about S orders grinding to a halt if X has a bigger battery.

The S and X are very different vehicles. As a recent S purchaser, I wouldn't consider the X. I don't want or need an SUV, and I greatly prefer the styling of the S over what I've seen of the X. I think the falcon wing doors are one of those things that you either love or hate. I think there are plenty of people who, like me, would not consider an X over an S.

Sure, but if they have a larger battery for the X you know absolutely that they can do the same for the S and will sooner or later, so why would you buy one instead of wait for them to announce the larger battery?

 

[stevej119]

Design studio will look like this very soon, IMO:


MODEL S

70D
85D (no more single motor config)
P100D (want the longer 300ish EPA range + better performance? Step up to the P100D)


MODEL X

85D (240ish EPA range)
P100D (275ish EPA range)

I suppose that's possible, but I'd personally be shocked if you couldn't buy a Model X with over 240 mile range for less than $120k. It seems lost on a lot of folks here that the P85D or XP85D is not going to be the bulk of the sales volume. If you take away your proposed P100D X model at $120K+, you're left with an $90k+ SUV with only 240 mile range. I just don't see that being a successful product lineup.

 

[Stoneymonster]

Most ICE SUV/Crossovers have bigger tanks than sedans do, because they must to match range. They also take a performance penalty based on weight for that. Would it be so crazy for Tesla to do the same? Frankly, I've always thought the battery size as the model number was dumb and would get them in this sort of trouble eventually. I'd rather they stuck to what the car can do (range, performance) and HIDE the battery spec. Seriously, I'd prefer this. Come at me.

EDIT: In fact, I'd go so far as to say in the future, they won't tell you the battery capacity. I think that's an artifact of how electric cars are currently perceived and how charging works. Once things are more ubiquitous and commonplace, it won't matter as much and they can drop it. How many ICE cars have their tank capacity as the top line spec?

 

[stevej119]

Sure, but if they have a larger battery for the X you know absolutely that they can do the same for the S and will sooner or later, so why would you buy one instead of wait for them to announce the larger battery?

Exactly. That is why I expect the Model S will have a larger battery the moment the Model X hits the design studio.

- - - Updated - - -

We should really have a separate thread for this battery size discussion. Any moment now someone is going to jump in, AGAIN, with "I think they're going to talk about a stationary battery."

 

[krisg81]

Most ICE SUV/Crossovers have bigger tanks than sedans do, because they must to match range. They also take a performance penalty based on weight for that. Would it be so crazy for Tesla to do the same? Frankly, I've always thought the battery size as the model number was dumb and would get them in this sort of trouble eventually. I'd rather they stuck to what the car can do (range, performance) and HIDE the battery spec. Seriously, I'd prefer this. Come at me.

EDIT: In fact, I'd go so far as to say in the future, they won't tell you the battery capacity. I think that's an artifact of how electric cars are currently perceived and how charging works. Once things are more ubiquitous and commonplace, it won't matter as much and they can drop it. How many ICE cars have their tank capacity as the top line spec?

I never even thought it about that way man. You are totally right. Basing your model naming convention based on the gas tank/battery size is starting to look more and more stupid as time goes on, especially with the coming competition in the EV market in the next couple of years.

 

[dsm363]

It all depends upon your definition of "soon." To me, "soon" is whenever the Model X hits the design studio. At that point, S orders will come to a grinding halt if S has a smaller battery than X. That is the "sense" of introducing a larger battery "soon." And that's why, after selling my five month old 85S a few days ago, I'm sitting tight for now.

My definition of "soon" is any time in the next 90 days. I'm sure a lot of others here at TMC are thinking 1-10 days when they read soon. It's all a matter of perspective.

If the Model X has a 90kWh pack but gets the same range I doubt people who like sedans over SUVs will jump ship to the Model X for that reason. Even if it's a 100kWh it depends on how much of an increase in range the X has over the 85D.

 

[wk057]

More of these batteries will not fit into the battery case, so 85KWh is it, until new chemistry is debuted.

This is correct. I see no way to cram more cells into the 85kWh pack as it stands.

That will be debuted for the Model X.

Would love to know where you get this information, since I highly doubt it is true.

My money is still on no bigger battery pack/better chemistry until the gigafactory is operational. Would make little sense otherwise.

 

[Andyw2100]

Sure, but if they have a larger battery for the X you know absolutely that they can do the same for the S and will sooner or later, so why would you buy one instead of wait for them to announce the larger battery?

I'm sure some people would wait. I just don't think Model S sales would come to a complete stop. There are always going to be people who want the car now and don't want to wait, as well as those for whom the current battery offerings are sufficient. There are also likely to be purchasers who realize that the larger battery will come with an increased price, and since they'd be satisfied with the current battery size, they'll still buy now.

I agree that there will be some potential S purchasers that will choose to wait to make their purchase if the X is announced with a larger battery than an 85 kWh. I just don't think a complete standstill in S sales is likely.

 

[stevej119]

This is correct. I see no way to cram more cells into the 85kWh pack as it stands.


My money is still on no bigger battery pack/better chemistry until the gigafactory is operational. Would make little sense otherwise.

Whether it makes sense (aside from whether it's possible - I know, minor detail) depends upon what the range of Model X is with the 85kwh battery. Ultimately, that depends upon the relative aerodynamics and weight of the X vs. the S.

- - - Updated - - -

If the Model X has a 90kWh pack but gets the same range I doubt people who like sedans over SUVs will jump ship to the Model X for that reason. Even if it's a 100kWh it depends on how much of an increase in range the X has over the 85D.

I didn't mean to imply anyone would jump ship from the S to the X. That's not what I think will happen. What I do think is that people will potentially delay their purchase of an S if it does not immediately have the same battery option because they know it is coming soon.

 

[dsm363]

I didn't mean to imply anyone would jump ship from the S to the X. That's not what I think will happen. What I do think is that people will potentially delay their purchase of an S if it does not immediately have the same battery option because they know it is coming soon.

Ah, that makes sense. Misunderstood what you posted.

I agree that would happen. My guess is Tesla would make that gap very small by announcing the X then also the new battery pack for the Model S that would be available very soon.

 

[wk057]

Whether it makes sense (aside from whether it's possible - I know, minor detail) depends upon what the range of Model X is with the 85kwh battery. Ultimately, that depends upon the relative aerodynamics and weight of the X vs. the S.

Considering the X is basically a Model S with a slightly larger front profile and potentially a bit more weight, I suspect the 85kWh pack will be fine and that an Model X85D will clock in a few ticks below the S P85D range wise. I'm also suspecting that the Model X is not going to be available in RWD due to the efficiency gains.

So, unlikely a *need* to release a pack with more energy, IMO.

Speculation.

 

[brianman]

Considering the X is basically a Model S with a slightly larger front profile and potentially a bit more weight, I suspect the 85kWh pack will be fine and that an Model X85D will clock in a few ticks below the S P85D range wise. I'm also suspecting that the Model X is not going to be available in RWD due to the efficiency gains.

So, unlikely a *need* to release a pack with more energy, IMO.

Speculation.

Ok, while we're speculating....

For the moment, assume that swapping doesn't "really exist for customers" (ever). With that assumption, is it important to Tesla Motors that the S and X have the same battery pack volume or shape? I'm guessing not.

 

[tekstrand24]

Then you would know how us P85+ owners feel. P1XXD is inevitable....

Exactly!

 

[stevej119]

Ok, while we're speculating....

For the moment, assume that swapping doesn't "really exist for customers" (ever). With that assumption, is it important to Tesla Motors that the S and X have the same battery pack volume or shape? I'm guessing not.

For purposes of economy of scale, it is important that the shape/size is the same. Less expensive to make twice as many of one thing than half as many each of two.

 

[brianman]

For purposes of economy of scale, it is important that the shape/size is the same. Less expensive to make twice as many of one thing than half as many each of two.

I'm not getting the twice/half point. Elaborate?

 

[stevej119]

I'm not getting the twice/half point. Elaborate?[/QUOTE

the cost is lower to engineer and manufacture 20,000 of one battery shape than 10,000 each of two battery shapes.