Articles/megaposts by DaveT

[whitex]

(from my weekly newsletter):

Tesla's Pace of Innovation
I've had my Model S (P85) for over 3 1/2 years now, and I still marvel at what an amazing car it is. However, even more impressive is how fast Tesla has innovated to make my car relatively obsolete. Sure, my P85 is still a great car but it doesn't have Autopilot 2.0 or AWD. And while it was the fastest Model S available when I got it, now even Tesla's base model S is almost as quick (0-60 mph).

Having owned a 2013, 2015 and a 2017 I must tell you, your view of the pace of innovation you speak of may be somewhat skewed because you see the hype. Here is my take:

1. Interior - since 2013 we got a center console, couple of different seats using different materials, and some more sound insulation. That's it. Still using the same central screen which actually seems to have gotten slower. Oh, lost the alcantara dash.
2. Exterior - lost the nosecone, got LED headlight lights IMO (and according to insurance industry testing) actually worse than the old ones. Lost color solid white option.
3. Batteries - went from 60/85 to 75/100, so 15KWh improvement across the board. Also, newer batteries can provide more current therefore more power.
4. Drivetrain - got AWD and "P-AWD" - very nice.
5. AutoPilot - this is very debatable but while it may look very desirable if you don't have one, it's not all that it's hyped up to be. I have AP1 and it's pretty much mostly useful for stop-and-go-highway-only traffic. Any other time, it's an accident waiting to happen (hence the Tesla warnings to make sure you are ready to take over any time if autopilot does something wrong). AP2 is same or worse as I understand it (I didn't purchase it for the 2017 car so basing my opinion on what I read here). I personally agree with Google/Waymo that there is no way to safely do Level 3 autonomy (more info here), though I kind of came to the same conclusion while using AP1 myself, before I found out Google reached the same conclusion..

So don't feel bad about your car being obsolete, it really isn't. Yes the new cars can be faster a have longer range, but you would expect such progress in 5 years from any car manufacturer. Personally AWD was the biggest improvement for me, all the other stuff is still unrealized hype (I'll be the first to praise Tesla and write them a check to enable FSD for my AP2 car, if the car will be able to drop me off at the airport, go park at home and come pick me up when I come back from the trip).

 

[TMSE]

Having owned a 2013, 2015 and a 2017 I must tell you, your view of the pace of innovation you speak of may be somewhat skewed because you see the hype. Here is my take:

1. Interior - since 2013 we got a center console, couple of different seats using different materials, and some more sound insulation. That's it. Still using the same central screen which actually seems to have gotten slower. Oh, lost the alcantara dash.
2. Exterior - lost the nosecone, got LED headlight lights IMO (and according to insurance industry testing) actually worse than the old ones. Lost color solid white option.
3. Batteries - went from 60/85 to 75/100, so 15KWh improvement across the board. Also, newer batteries can provide more current therefore more power.
4. Drivetrain - got AWD and "P-AWD" - very nice.
5. AutoPilot - this is very debatable but while it may look very desirable if you don't have one, it's not all that it's hyped up to be. I have AP1 and it's pretty much mostly useful for stop-and-go-highway-only traffic. Any other time, it's an accident waiting to happen (hence the Tesla warnings to make sure you are ready to take over any time if autopilot does something wrong). AP2 is same or worse as I understand it (I didn't purchase it for the 2017 car so basing my opinion on what I read here). I personally agree with Google/Waymo that there is no way to safely do Level 3 autonomy (more info here), though I kind of came to the same conclusion while using AP1 myself, before I found out Google reached the same conclusion..

So don't feel bad about your car being obsolete, it really isn't. Yes the new cars can be faster a have longer range, but you would expect such progress in 5 years from any car manufacturer. Personally AWD was the biggest improvement for me, all the other stuff is still unrealized hype (I'll be the first to praise Tesla and write them a check to enable FSD for my AP2 car, if the car will be able to drop me off at the airport, go park at home and come pick me up when I come back from the trip).

I am curious why you even bothered to get 2017 model, instead of just keeping 2015, when you didn't get AP2 enabled (No FSD or EAP?). what other features did you find in 2017 model compelling enough to upgrade?

 

[whitex]

I am curious why you even bothered to get 2017 model, instead of just keeping 2015, when you didn't get AP2 enabled (No FSD or EAP?). what other features did you find in 2017 model compelling enough to upgrade?

Ability for two people to drive simultaneously in independent locations. We wanted a second Tesla. Still have both the 2015 and 2017.

 

[Electroman]

I have AP1 and it's pretty much mostly useful for stop-and-go-highway-only traffic. Any other time, it's an accident waiting to happen (hence the Tesla warnings to make sure you are ready to take over any time if autopilot does something wrong).

Utter nonsense. AP1 works like magic and is THE greatest stress reliever innovation in the auto industry in many decades. I can't stand here and listen to the bull sh-it that AP is only useful in stop and go highway traffic.

Those comments are an insult and slap on the face for people like me who use it in every situation possible. Almost 80% of my driving is in AP1, and I feel more safer than ever. Before AP, driving an ICE was so annoying because I miss the smooth EV drivetrain. Now after started using AP1, I absolutely hate driving any other car.

 

[X Fan]

^^^^
Agree wholeheartedly that AP1 is lights out good.

Over 35k miles traveling up and down east coast though country roads, highway, cities....just a superb product.

Just tonight, completed a 4 hr trip from Charlotte to beach that was achieved with little stress.

 

[wdolson]

Earthquake in Bay Area is my concern. The next auto factory must be elsewhere--maybe along with a battery one in China after New Years.

How much damage an earthquake does is very dependent on building codes as well as how the waves travel in the rock around the fault. Earthquake waves travel less in California's rocks than just about anywhere in the world. The Fremont factory did survive the Loma Prieta quake with little damage.

California has a rep for severe earthquakes, but the New Madrid fault in Missouri can produce much more severe earthquakes. Subduction zones produce much more severe earthquakes than the mostly side slip faults in California. Japan, Sumatra , the Philippines, and the Aleutians all have very active subduction zones. There is one off Washington and Oregon, but it is less active than many. The earthquake in Mexico today might have been due to the subduction zone off the coast of Mexico.

Basically if you want to situation a factory to be safe from damage from natural disasters, California isn't all that bad a place to be. It's a very expensive place to put a factory, but if the buildings are built properly, the chances of severe damage from a quake is relatively low. The building will likely ride out some quakes during it's time, but there is little worry that production is going to be shuttered for long periods.

All the car factories in Japan are at higher risk from earthquake damage. Japan's subduction zone can produce some massive earthquakes and they are relatively frequent. Japan has had more severe earthquakes and more damage from each of those quakes in the last century than California has had in the last century.

 

[whitex]

Utter nonsense. AP1 works like magic and is THE greatest stress reliever innovation in the auto industry in many decades. I can't stand here and listen to the bull sh-it that AP is only useful in stop and go highway traffic.

Those comments are an insult and slap on the face for people like me who use it in every situation possible. Almost 80% of my driving is in AP1, and I feel more safer than ever.

Please don't take it personally. It sounds like you didn't read the article I linked, so let me give you the gist of it. Any autonomous driving system that requires the user to continuously supervise and take over in a matter of seconds in the event of the system mistake becomes more dangerous the better the system becomes at driving. It may seem counter-intuitive, why more dangerous the better it becomes? Think about this: If AP became so amazingly good that it only required a human intervention once every 10,000 miles of driving? Do you think most people would be ready to take over if that situation only occurred once or twice a year of their everyday driving. The answer is no. Joshua Brown didn't pay attention for a crucial 10 seconds and paid for it with his life. Lookup Google's/Waymo's research on this topic.

Before AP, driving an ICE was so annoying because I miss the smooth EV drivetrain. Now after started using AP1, I absolutely hate driving any other car.

I absolutely agree about loving driving the EV over ice, we don't have ICE cars anymore. However, why did you say "before AP"? What does AP have to do with the EV drive-train? 2013 Tesla, which did not have any AP, drove just as smooth.

 

[BozieBeMe2]

(from my weekly newsletter):

Tesla's Pace of Innovation
I've had my Model S (P85) for over 3 1/2 years now, and I still marvel at what an amazing car it is. However, even more impressive is how fast Tesla has innovated to make my car relatively obsolete. Sure, my P85 is still a great car but it doesn't have Autopilot 2.0 or AWD. And while it was the fastest Model S available when I got it, now even Tesla's base model S is almost as quick (0-60 mph).

When I think about what's driving this aggressive pace of innovation, I find myself attributing much of the source to Tesla's management. Elon and his team are pushing the envelope on innovation, and are constantly challenging the status quo and what people think is not possible. There are definitely certain risks in pushing the envelope too fast, but so far Tesla has navigating that balancing act rather well.

When compared to the competition, Tesla is in a pack by itself. There is no other auto maker that I'm aware of that's innovating as fast as Tesla or pushing the envelope as aggressively. Sure there are startups that are innovating quickly, but once a company starts delivering cars at scale most companies tend to err on being overly conservative. But in Tesla's case, even with thousands and thousands of cars delivered, they keep iterating and keep pushing out better technology.

This is the reason why I think that Tesla's biggest risks are not competition from existing auto makers. Rather, the biggest risks to Tesla lie in their own execution and supply chain. What if a major supplier has a plant burn down and it delays critical parts for 6 months? Or what if there's a major earthquake that hits Tesla's Fremont factory and Tesla is unable to produce cars for 3 months? Tesla still has bills to pay and it could cause a cash crisis.

Overall, I think Tesla can and will overcome the challenges ahead. And I don't think the future of Tesla has ever looked brighter. Just reflect on the pace of innovation... and enjoy the ride as Tesla releases more and more amazing products that delight their customers.

My only concerns are, while Tesla seems to have our back in keeping our cars updated and on the road, most of the news suggest that the population in general, does not.
The Nay Sayers are constantly trying to tear down, while Elon and his team keep on building.
My faith and money 'Will Be On Tesla!'

 

[Puddles]

The next auto factory must be elsewhere--maybe along with a battery one in China after New Years.

If my vote counts for anything, I would not like to see any sourcing from China.

 

[dmckinstry]

If my vote counts for anything, I would not like to see any sourcing from China.

But, I would hope that sourcing "from" China would be for cars made and sold in China. There would be no need for extensive shipping costs.

 

[Fallenone]

If my vote counts for anything, I would not like to see any sourcing from China.

Not possible. Model 3 uses PM motors and China supplies 90% of the world's rare earth.

 

[bdy0627]

Utter nonsense. AP1 works like magic and is THE greatest stress reliever innovation in the auto industry in many decades. I can't stand here and listen to the bull sh-it that AP is only useful in stop and go highway traffic.

Those comments are an insult and slap on the face for people like me who use it in every situation possible. Almost 80% of my driving is in AP1, and I feel more safer than ever. Before AP, driving an ICE was so annoying because I miss the smooth EV drivetrain. Now after started using AP1, I absolutely hate driving any other car.

I agree about AP1 being very helpful and definitely not just for stop and go traffic on the highway. I use it every chance I get on the highway and I am also ready to take over as needed. I find it pretty relaxing compared with when it is off.

 

[RCardona68]

(from my weekly newsletter):

Tesla's Pace of Innovation
I've had my Model S (P85) for over 3 1/2 years now, and I still marvel at what an amazing car it is. However, even more impressive is how fast Tesla has innovated to make my car relatively obsolete. Sure, my P85 is still a great car but it doesn't have Autopilot 2.0 or AWD. And while it was the fastest Model S available when I got it, now even Tesla's base model S is almost as quick (0-60 mph).

When I think about what's driving this aggressive pace of innovation, I find myself attributing much of the source to Tesla's management. Elon and his team are pushing the envelope on innovation, and are constantly challenging the status quo and what people think is not possible. There are definitely certain risks in pushing the envelope too fast, but so far Tesla has navigating that balancing act rather well.

When compared to the competition, Tesla is in a pack by itself. There is no other auto maker that I'm aware of that's innovating as fast as Tesla or pushing the envelope as aggressively. Sure there are startups that are innovating quickly, but once a company starts delivering cars at scale most companies tend to err on being overly conservative. But in Tesla's case, even with thousands and thousands of cars delivered, they keep iterating and keep pushing out better technology.

This is the reason why I think that Tesla's biggest risks are not competition from existing auto makers. Rather, the biggest risks to Tesla lie in their own execution and supply chain. What if a major supplier has a plant burn down and it delays critical parts for 6 months? Or what if there's a major earthquake that hits Tesla's Fremont factory and Tesla is unable to produce cars for 3 months? Tesla still has bills to pay and it could cause a cash crisis.

Overall, I think Tesla can and will overcome the challenges ahead. And I don't think the future of Tesla has ever looked brighter. Just reflect on the pace of innovation... and enjoy the ride as Tesla releases more and more amazing products that delight their customers.

 

[RCardona68]

Well said. I have to agree and still my financial advisors, as many have said since the stick was sub $100, do not recommend Tesla stock. Talk about an outlier company that sets its own rules! At a recent EV meet one person brought a Roadster upgraded in battery and interior. Sharp looking. Then he show photos of his garage. The Roadster on a lift, an S under and an X for the Mrs! That is the success of Tesla! Thanks

 

[Ryo]

Anyone get this week's edition of Tesla Weekly?

 

[GoTslaGo]

Anyone get this week's edition of Tesla Weekly?

He'll skip every once in a while

 

[DaveT]

He'll skip every once in a while

Yep, I'll skip once in a while. Mostly if there isn't a lot news or for personal reasons.

On another note, here's an interesting blog post on diversification.
Diversification (aka How To Survive A Crash) – AVC

I think Fred Wilson has some good points on diversification and worth reading.

I think diversification is a complicated issue and one's approach to diversification depends on a lot of factors.

For example, if you're young you can probably afford more risk and thus less diversification. Also, if you're ok with living in a modest manner (ie., low living expenses), then you can probably be more risk prone as well. But it depends on a lot of other factors as well. If you have a high-paying job that's relatively secure, then you can be more risk prone as well since if your investment(s) fail then you can build up savings or money to invest rather quickly. Also, if you're a proven entrepreneur and have the confidence that you can make money even if you don't have any money, then you can be more risk prone as well. But sometimes, the people who take what seems to be risky moves aren't really taking that much risk because either they know they can quickly earn the money back (or at least some of it) with a high salary or a new business, or they are confident in their investing skills and know how to manage their investments (ie., knowing when to get out before it gets too ugly).

However, for others they really could be taking on too much risk. Maybe they just don't have world-class investment skills or a high paying job or entrepreneurial skills. And maybe too much of their money is in one stock. In that case, I think it's wise to diversify more. I've seen too many people get swept away with enthusiasm and exuberance over an investment... only later for that investment to crater and their money to be gone. Now, it's one thing for the money to be gone but it's another thing for what that means in their lives... ie., added stress, relational damage, etc.

On another note, I think a lot of people here on TMC overestimate their investing skills. I wouldn't trust them with my money to find the next big thing. Too many people following the crowd and getting caught up with group think. Lots of cheerleading. Lots of emotionalism. Not enough critical thinking. Not enough accurate and deep thinking from a breadth of business knowledge and insight.

 

[bdy0627]

Yep, I'll skip once in a while. Mostly if there isn't a lot news or for personal reasons.

On another note, I think a lot of people here on TMC overestimate their investing skills. I wouldn't trust them with my money to find the next big thing. Too many people following the crowd and getting caught up with group think. Lots of cheerleading. Lots of emotionalism. Not enough critical thinking. Not enough accurate and deep thinking from a breadth of business knowledge and insight.

Guilty as charged! And the market has let me know this numerous times.

 

[Matias]

I think this fast pace if innovation is also risk in some sense. For example now AEB is disabled in AP 2.5 cars, because Tesla pushed the hardware before the software was ready.

 

[tlo]

On another note, I think a lot of people here on TMC overestimate their investing skills. I wouldn't trust them with my money to find the next big thing. Too many people following the crowd and getting caught up with group think. Lots of cheerleading. Lots of emotionalism. Not enough critical thinking. Not enough accurate and deep thinking from a breadth of business knowledge and insight.

True, but I have a different perspective. This "crowd of cheerleaders", by stumbling onto TSLA as an investment whether by luck or by intellect, is already exclusive amongst investors in being able see through the noise and recognize TSLA as the opportunity that it is. Anyone who buys-and-holds will in all likelihood outperform the broader market in the next 10 years. The problem only arises when one takes on more risk by trying to play for larger gains. Making money investing and "finding the next big thing" is not really as hard as some make it to be. AAPL, FB, AMZN made money for a lot of people and it wasn't hard to spot them - we could all see them turning into giants in slow motion. I believe history will look kindly on these "cheerleading" "permabulls" on this forum, albeit some will have lost some money due to shorter term volatility.

On another note, what forum of any kind can you find "accurate and deep thinking from a breadth of business knowledge and insight"? All investment/industry related forums I have come across are littered with junk and noise. Certainly I have never come across another forum where there is a diverse group of millionaires who freely share their private insights.