Articles/megaposts by DaveT

[hpartsch]

It's funny a couple days ago I spent my entire Sunday afternoon writing the next two posts in the series and then my TextEdit program crashed. Usually I just open it back up and everything's restored to where it was. But this time, it was all gone. And I couldn't find a way to recover it. So, I gave up and told my wife in exasperation that I should just stop writing these posts (since who reads these posts anyways, right?). Then, my wife was like "No, we've got to find a way to recover that file." I told her, "Forget it. It's gone. Maybe this is a sign I should take a break from writing on TMC." But she wouldn't give up and eventually we found a way to restore the file via Time Machine. And that's the story how my wife saved this series.

Dave, I just want to chime in and say Thanks for all your hard work/knowledge. Although I had not posted before on TMC -- I am on the site multiple times a week. I feel as though there are many individuals like myself.

Due to your posts, I timed my most substantial investment in Tesla perfectly (and as a result have made even more money).

Thanks again!

 

[Cattledog]

This allows engineers the freedom to innovate and iterate on solutions, then for service centers to try those solutions out, and if the solution work then for production to immediately incorporate the changes into the production line. The key to all of this is the speed at which a company can address a quality control issue. By bringing in key cross-functional personnel under the direction of the CEO, Tesla is able to quickly address issues that crop up. The result is the car gets better and better at a faster rate than any other car on the market.

I'm not sure many people really appreciate this aspect (especially dealers, who are dependent on old-line automakers creating cars that need servicing). And I don't think this is priced into the stock. In a few years, when we have seen a couple cycles of Model S, X and maybe the first round of Model 3, I think this will be more evident.

 

[ggr]

(since who reads these posts anyways, right?)

Yeah, I don't read them.

 

[kalikgod]

(since who reads these posts anyways)

Add me to the list of readers who don't post on here very often. I have been long TSLA since 2011 and reading your material has saved me from taking any profits along the way.

I also went back and watched the google hangout reflection of the Q2 results. If you plan to do it again, I'll try to join in.

 

[chickensevil]

It's funny a couple days ago I spent my entire Sunday afternoon writing the next two posts in the series and then my TextEdit program crashed. Usually I just open it back up and everything's restored to where it was. But this time, it was all gone. And I couldn't find a way to recover it. So, I gave up and told my wife in exasperation that I should just stop writing these posts (since who reads these posts anyways, right?). Then, my wife was like "No, we've got to find a way to recover that file." I told her, "Forget it. It's gone. Maybe this is a sign I should take a break from writing on TMC." But she wouldn't give up and eventually we found a way to restore the file via Time Machine. And that's the story how my wife saved this series.

I have been reading every one of them, I am just waiting for you to finally circle back around to Tesla 3.0... because, unless I missed something, you haven't gotten back to that subject yet... and the build up is killing me.

The other great benefit to this series is helping people play catch up, if they have only just discovered the stock. Because it really explains a lot about that company that so many people seem to get wrong.

So please keep them coming, at least until you finally show us Tesla 3.0 and the case for the stock going into the thousands

Seriously though, you have some of the most sensible statements about the potential of this company and in a realistic scope. I can usually rely on you to have some conservative estimates that are well grounded vs others who state that the stock will be 1,000 by X date, without giving any kind of grounded statement on it... they just "feel it".

 

[The Blue Owl]

The other great benefit to this series is helping people play catch up, if they have only just discovered the stock. Because it really explains a lot about that company that so many people seem to get wrong. [...] Seriously though, you have some of the most sensible statements about the potential of this company and in a realistic scope. I can usually rely on you to have some conservative estimates that are well grounded vs others who state that the stock will be 1,000 by X date, without giving any kind of grounded statement on it... they just "feel it".

This is an excellent point. I forwarded this thread to friends who wanted to know more about the stock and the company, because I think it is the best one-stop source of information on the subject available anywhere.

 

[c041v]

(since who reads these posts anyways, right?)

Unless you've visited this thread 75,000 times, I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with you.

 

[adiggs]

Unless you've visited this thread 75,000 times, I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with you.

++1

 

[FluxCap]

It's funny a couple days ago I spent my entire Sunday afternoon writing the next two posts in the series and then my TextEdit program crashed. Usually I just open it back up and everything's restored to where it was. But this time, it was all gone. And I couldn't find a way to recover it. So, I gave up and told my wife in exasperation that I should just stop writing these posts (since who reads these posts anyways, right?). Then, my wife was like "No, we've got to find a way to recover that file." I told her, "Forget it. It's gone. Maybe this is a sign I should take a break from writing on TMC." But she wouldn't give up and eventually we found a way to restore the file via Time Machine. And that's the story how my wife saved this series.

I owe your wife a ridiculously expensive beverage, ironically which will be bought for her on the tropical island you will own someday, that I will visit.

 

[chickensevil]

Unless you've visited this thread 75,000 times, I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with you.

Indeed, this thread has the 7th most number of posts in it of the investor threads, and 7th most number of page views... Which is all contesting with massive threads like "Gigafactory Investor Thread" and "Alternative Energy Investor Discussions" (although in fairness I am not counting the "stickied" threads... but those aren't fair to judge because they are always prominent on the page.)

I would almost suggest this thread should be stickied in it's own right

 

[Ryo]

Add me to the list of readers who don't post on here very often. I have been long TSLA since 2011 and reading your material has saved me from taking any profits along the way.

I also went back and watched the google hangout reflection of the Q2 results. If you plan to do it again, I'll try to join in.

I fall in this camp as well. I imagine there are a ton of readers who simply don't post much. If all the readers posted replies there'd be way too much reading, and way too much nonsense to surf through.

Many Thanks Dave.

 

[kenliles]

It's funny a couple days ago I spent my entire Sunday afternoon writing the next two posts in the series and then my TextEdit program crashed. Usually I just open it back up and everything's restored to where it was. But this time, it was all gone. And I couldn't find a way to recover it. So, I gave up and told my wife in exasperation that I should just stop writing these posts (since who reads these posts anyways, right?). Then, my wife was like "No, we've got to find a way to recover that file." I told her, "Forget it. It's gone. Maybe this is a sign I should take a break from writing on TMC." But she wouldn't give up and eventually we found a way to restore the file via Time Machine. And that's the story how my wife saved this series.

good gawd- DaveT; do not EVER assume those posts aren't valuable to the forum and readers. I haven't posted nearly as much due to many time pressures, but read everything- and those are prime.
Don't even frickin' think about whether it's of value- It's not a question you should even be asking-
you quit on those now and I'm sending goons
and thank goodness you married that woman- give her a big thanks from TMC members !

remember - reading does NOT equal posting for many.

and because it probably isn't said enough- thank you, thank you, thank you...

 

[pGo]

+1 Dave. I have been a strong follower of yours. You are an SME here and you help me digest what's to come or expect while being a long time investor. Finding Tesla in 2012 (which I did in 2009) is one thing but sit on that investment and grow it wisely is completely different. I thank you for making me a better investor.

 

[DaveT]

Thanks everyone. It's been good to get some feedback after the first 10 posts in this series. As I've dived into this series, I'm realizing that what I'm trying to do is quite ambitious since I'm not just laying down the case for TSLA as a company/stock but I'm also trying to lay out an investment model/system to forecast where the stock is going and why, and not just over the next year but over the next 10+ years. After I finish with Tesla's competitive advantages, I'll dive into Tesla 3.0, and then I'll start expanding on the various TSLA 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0 scenarios and their effects on the stock price over time. And then I plan to go into laying the model to forecast the super-low, low-mid, mid-high, and super-high ranges for TSLA over the next several years. I think that's why I was discouraged when I thought I lost the drafts I was working on, because I'm realizing I still have lot more to write in this series and it's going to take a lot of time/energy. But anyway, thanks everyone for sharing encouragement and feedback.

 

[chickensevil]

Well your time and energy is certainly appreciated! I am excited for your perspective on Tesla 3.0!

 

[Robert.Boston]

And this is why the internet is such a great thing. Even a decade ago, DaveT might have written a book about this, but by the time it was for sale it would be out of date. Or he'd be working at a bank/broker, which he probably doesn't want to do and even then his employer might not want him spending this time on Tesla instead of a "real" company like Ford. Today, we can all benefit from Dave's thinking and, hopefully, help him refine his thinking and modeling to our mutual benefit.
:smile:

 

[farzyness]

Just wanted to throw my 2 cents in.

DaveT - your posts have reassured a fairly large amount of people - including myself - to hold steady and true with a company like Tesla. They have influenced me greatly in investing in Tesla, and because of this, I was able to buy my first ever home from the winnings I earned in the stock. It would have otherwise taken me years to save up enough money to do so.

So a sincere THANK YOU to you and your phenomenal posts.

 

[CaptainKirk]

Just wanted to throw my 2 cents in.

DaveT - your posts have reassured a fairly large amount of people - including myself - to hold steady and true with a company like Tesla. They have influenced me greatly in investing in Tesla, and because of this, I was able to buy my first ever home from the winnings I earned in the stock. It would have otherwise taken me years to save up enough money to do so.

So a sincere THANK YOU to you and your phenomenal posts.

I also wish to share the same sentiment. Thank you DaveT for your analyses because it helps keep the emotional part of me in check. I was late to the party (early 2014) but I like to think I'm a better invester overall from learning how to look beyond the main headlines and learning to think critically.

 

[clmason]

Keep them coming DaveT!

I think that as we approach ATH's your posts are a panacea for weak longs to get off the fence. At least those who read here...
The more people who hold, the faster TSLA climbs.

 

[Johann Koeber]

thank you, DaveT.

Your posts are very much appreciated.