It's actually not that easy to get those low prices at market open. I was looking at the 160's and right at open it already had some orders fulfilled around .83 and the ask was around 1.20 or so. And a pretty big bid/ask spread. I'm guessing people that got those low prices maybe had a buy at market order or it was bots? But it was interesting looking at how those weeklies traded on Wed and today.
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Articles/megaposts by sleepyhead
- Thread starter sleepyhead
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It's actually not that easy to get those low prices at market open. I was looking at the 160's and right at open it already had some orders fulfilled around .83 and the ask was around 1.20 or so. And a pretty big bid/ask spread. I'm guessing people that got those low prices maybe had a buy at market order or it was bots? But it was interesting looking at how those weeklies traded on Wed and today.
That is a good point. It is important to note that you will never hit the peaks and troughs perfectly, and you really don't have to come close to make easy money. Going back to my example of an opening low at 0.60 and then 2.70 an hour or so later: Realistically, you could have bought around $1 and sold around $2 for a quick double.
I just shorted TWTR again today using $68 Dec 27 puts. I bought them for 0.45 (almost got struck for more at $0.30) after the stock rebounded a little above $71 and I quickly sold all of them within 10 min for 0.55 - 0.75 for a quick 50% profit. I am now basically back to even on my TWTR trading this week. Stock behavior was very predictable to me this morning and it behaved exactly as I though it would:
The stock opened down around 4% right around $70 (pre-market showed this would happen) followed by a quick, albeit short-lived, rally above $71, and then the stock resumed its downtrend. I used that 1 minute rally to buy my puts cheap. I sold them really quickly because they are deep OTM and expire today. I have a feeling they might even finish ITM today, but no point in getting greedy and losing the easy gains.
The other two bets I wanted to make at market open was to buy some JKS Jan calls $31 due to great news coming out today and market not pricing it in properly. Problem with that bet is that the bid/ask is too wide and hard to make money that way. I also wanted to buy a bunch of TSLA puts at market open and that would have turned out to be the best bet had I done it. But I decided on TWTR because it seemed more of a sure thing due to analyst downgrade than TSLA, which was a gut feeling.
Good play on twtr. I was wondering if you were to jump back in due to missed timing you reported earlier. I did good with aapl by getting $565 puts. Couldn't time the low this morning, but knew there is going to be manipulation to drop it to $560 to make 13k calls worthless. I'm currently holding $69 Jan 3 puts for twtr and they're finally in the money. I wonder, what made you choose $68 puts? Looks like you called it: twtr is heading towards $68. My guess is that it'll hit $67 to make some more calls expire worthless. I thought I was doomed to buy $69 puts realizing that the big options were hovering around $70 that expires today.
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Posted the good news from Jinko on the Alternate Energy thread. Between Solar, TWTR, and TSLA, 2014 is looking to be a great year, as long as the market stays stable and no major global disruptions ( between China and Japan for example) break out. Now patiently waiting for MU's earnings next week.
The reason I bought the $68's was because the stock was around $71 and I thought it had a reasonable chance of falling below $68 today, therefore I bought those. But it really would not have mattered which options I bought, since my plan was to sell them within the hour anyway. I would have done just as well with the $66 or $70, give or take.
When you make quick trades like this one, the import part is to get the direction and severity of the move of the stock price correctly. You can then make similar gains with a whole gamut of options.
Hi Sleepy -- thanks as always for your excellent insights. I'm holding CSIQ right now for the medium to long term and it's been great to watch and learn more.
Just saw this news tidbit and wondered -- do you think this has affected or will affect Chinese solars significantly?
US solar panel manufacturers get a gift from the US military | Public Radio International
Cheers,
Flux
Just saw this news tidbit and wondered -- do you think this has affected or will affect Chinese solars significantly?
US solar panel manufacturers get a gift from the US military | Public Radio International
Cheers,
Flux
I like CSIQ the most out of all of the Chinese solar companies. JKS is a good one too. My underdog pick is JASO.
As far as the article goes, it is just another piece to the puzzle. 1 GW's over 5 years out of 200 GW - 300 GW that will be installed globally is only a drop in the bucket. It might have some negative effect on SCTY, since they use Chinese panels and they have some kind of contract with the US military. It might help SPWR and FSLR though. It is really hard to tell, but it will not have any negative effect on Chinese solar companies though because the total is not that much.
I see it primarily as a political positive to solar as it eliminates some arguments of foes of govt subsidy to solar. Otherwise the size is too small to effect much as sleepy says. SCTY can and will source panels from other sources to supply to those customers so I disagree there will be any potential effect there.
Thanks for the insight. Since the end of market for Friday has passed by, what do you see happening with Twitter in the next couple of weeks? I know you went very short timing on Friday's puts trade and not be greedy. But it sure is a crappy feeling seeing that twtr falling below $64 at the end of the day. I admit that it fell more than what I thought in one day. I was expecting less than 10%. I wonder because Twitter is somewhat behaving like Tesla when it was going up like crazy, until an analyst slams with a downgrade. For some reason, yesterday's downgrade was more meaningful than other downgrades that twtr has received in the near past. I'm just scratching my head on twtr if it would behave like tsla right after a Goldman Sachs "upgrade", or just keep on tanking to maybe below $60. It appears you were right on buying puts for twtr, but you bought a day early, while I bought during mid trading day (I was focused on aapl and succeeded with puts). It shows that you are more experienced than I with options and expecting the timing of swings.
I really don't have any idea what TWTR will do over the next few days, weeks, months, or years. I only traded it as a very short-term, few hour trade. I went full circle today and bought some calls right after market open. I sold them for a 25% gain within 30 minutes. I tried this same strategy at market close on Friday and got burned. But today's TWTR trade got me exactly back to even on all of my TWTR trading over the past week.
I traded TWTR only to take advantage of some very short term price movements. I could not give you any advice on the stock though. I don't think anyone in the world knows which way TWTR will go from here. It will grow, but will it be fast enough for the market? It is definitely a gamble with this stock.
I see TSLA as a safer play than TWTR, and it is a company where you can at least come up with some reasonable estimates on what revenues and profits might be a few years out.
Gotcha, you're in and out quick. I agree that TSLA is much safer than TWTR and is proven to grow over the years.
I wrote an article on the recent Tesla related FUD:
Tesla, Fighting the Good Fight
I hope you all enjoy the read. Please let me know what you think.
Cheers,
sleepyhead
Tesla, Fighting the Good Fight
I hope you all enjoy the read. Please let me know what you think.
Cheers,
sleepyhead
I'll tell you what I think of it. Brilliant. And a great example of how individuals are superseding accuracy of publications and news orgs.
I especially like your point about the opportunity it creates for the small investor and I'll ditto that thought right here
Keep it up Bloomberg, CNN, CNBC, Forbes and others. All you're doing is trading your reputation for my opportunity. I make more dollars on these misinformed publications than I can count....
Well done sleepy
Paul8810
Longtime Member
Thanks a lot for the feedback and kind words everyone.
I am not a social media expert, but here is our Twitter account to which we posted the article:
Contrarian Investor (tcnvestor) on Twitter
Here is the tweet with the article:
Twitter / tcnvestor: @elonmusk #Tesla - Fighting ...
I guess you can always re-tweet it to your followers. I am not an expert on Twitter either, Norse does all of that good stuff.
Easiest way to spread an article would be to get Elon to re-tweet it I guess, haha.
I am not a social media expert, but here is our Twitter account to which we posted the article:
Contrarian Investor (tcnvestor) on Twitter
Here is the tweet with the article:
Twitter / tcnvestor: @elonmusk #Tesla - Fighting ...
I guess you can always re-tweet it to your followers. I am not an expert on Twitter either, Norse does all of that good stuff.
Easiest way to spread an article would be to get Elon to re-tweet it I guess, haha.
Permission to post it over on the TM forum? might catch TM interest over there.
edit: Oh, I forbid Twitter and facebook in our home. I have a teenage daughter...trying to keep her out of trouble :wink:
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