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Articles/megaposts by sleepyhead
- Thread starter sleepyhead
- Start date
The R&D increase will come from Model X and Model S improvements; Gen3 will not have any material impact for a while.
ModelS8794
Member
Sleepy, is your $101k ASP pure car, or does it include either of GHG and/or ZEV credit revenue?
I think low ASP is what's got the street most off base this qtr, but I have a hard time getting to $101k ex-all credits.
Street is at $3.1 billion sales in 2014 - i dunno if that's GAAP or lease adjusted, but if it is the latter then I think it's off by about 50%. I dunno if this quarter will be the time or not, but getting 45k+ units and 99k+ ASPs into consensus is IMO what will have the most impact on TSLA over the next year.
I think low ASP is what's got the street most off base this qtr, but I have a hard time getting to $101k ex-all credits.
Street is at $3.1 billion sales in 2014 - i dunno if that's GAAP or lease adjusted, but if it is the latter then I think it's off by about 50%. I dunno if this quarter will be the time or not, but getting 45k+ units and 99k+ ASPs into consensus is IMO what will have the most impact on TSLA over the next year.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Thanks for the post sleepy. I've had trouble sleeping last few days. ER anticipation. It certainly won't be boring. Nice to see TSLA pop back to $170 today.
$101.5k is pure auto. I think the risk might be to the upside though, since Elon said they factored in a 3% price increase for international sales for forex movements. Since the USD weakened in Q3, this will provide an even bigger boost.
Remember no more 40 kWh sales in Q3, lower mix of 60s. Full quarter of P+ sales. Signature deliveries in EU, and a couple of weeks of higher options pricing for Model S orders.
So I think that the risk is definitely to the upside.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
With regard to the fire Elon mentioned in the german interview (it was really a huge source of intel) that initially when the fire happened they saw a slowdown of orders, but when they posted the explanation to what had happened they actually regained those very fast and continued at a higher order pace. People loved the fact that it's such a safe car. So this is to answer about the Q4 impact from fires.
In regards to 2nd fire:
There is suspicion that the driver was drunk and speeding. Crashed into a wall and catapulted into a tree, but the driver managed to walk out of the car without any hints of the slightest injury.
Sounds like a pretty safe car to me.
After these two fire incidents, I am considering buying a Model X for my wife and kids for the sole reason to protect them in case of an accident.
And the guy was begging for faster delivery of his next Model S. Sounds like he just can't tolerate driving any other car anymore..
Musk said in an interview in Germany that sales went down after the first fire, but they went up after the blog post - higher than previous high. Looks like people are pretty convinced that it is a very safe car.
One thing that has gone completely unnoticed is that Tesla said in Q2 shareholder letter that EPS will be positive excl. ZEV.
Since It looks like they will beat delivery guidance by 10%, there is a floor of $0.10 EPS. Each $10 million of ZEV should raise EPS by another $0.07.
I think it is safe to say that TSLA will beat non-GAAP EPS consensus by a good amount.
Since It looks like they will beat delivery guidance by 10%, there is a floor of $0.10 EPS. Each $10 million of ZEV should raise EPS by another $0.07.
I think it is safe to say that TSLA will beat non-GAAP EPS consensus by a good amount.
ModelS8794
Member
There were on the order of 500 or 750 40kwh produced right? So maybe that adds $5-8 million over 5150 cars = 1-1.5k to the $93 ASP for an adj. Q2 base of $94k. off the 94k base, shall we assume 25% of production headed to Europe this quarter? 500 European Sigs at, what, $120k? and 900 more at $103k sound good?
That would leave 3600 US sales. To get a $101.5k ASP you'd need those cars selling at $99k, a 5-5.5% increase from the Q2 adj. ASP. I guess that's doable if the P85+ is a huge hit; I don't really recall the timing of the introduction nor have a good sense for how much uptake it got.
Best get your reservation in now. Better yet, you'll want to have the fam driving safe ASAP, so a Sig reservation seems most appropriate. This recommendation has nothing to do with my desire to see Tesla's balance sheet look as good as possible. :tongue:
Absolutely agree. I think we're now into a 4th category of Tesla buyers (after treehuggers and performance freaks and early adopter techies) -- that being those that years ago would have bought a Volvo for its safety. Just looking at all the crash pics in this forum and how well the car survives puts me into the same mindset as Sleepyhead as well...and I think long term this is an extremely important selling feature.
I think that second-fire driver, redefined himself as a tree-hugger category
First, excellent article. Thanks for writing it up, referring back to Q2 shareholder letter and for posting the excel docs.
Just curious do you remember when/where you heard Elon saying 2015 will be the year for high EPS?
StapleGun
Member
~735 40kWh cars were delivered, basically all in Q2. The average 40kWh car probably had an ASP of around $65-70k ($57.4k base and most likely much less equipped than the average car). These 735 cars from Q2 are being replaced by US deliveries with an average ASP of around $95-100k, so we're looking at about $30k*735 difference or about $22 million net difference.
Your EU numbers (1400) look about right, but there's no difference in signature/non-signature pricing. The key is standard v. performance v. performance plus. My EU data about configurations comes from this spreadsheet. Compiling that data gives me these approximations...
| Config | Percentage | Est. ASP* | |
| P85+ | 25.5% | $118,000 | |
| P85 | 38% | $107,000 | |
| 85 | 34% | $96,000 | |
| 60 | 3.5% | $84,000 | |
This gives a total EU ASP of $106,330.
The number of US deliveries doesn't have a huge effect on ASP in these calculations so lets guess 4300. So to get to sleepy's ASP we would need a $99.9k ASP for US deliveries.
I posted this image in the Q3 predictions thread, but it's relevant here as well. The numbers show the configuration types and base ASP (sans options) per 1000 VINs for US deliveries only. Q2 is roughly 7500-14k and Q3 is roughly VIN 14k-22k. Q3 looks like the base ASP will be about $3k higher, but this graph does not include the $2500 price increase that was not a major part of Q2 but will be in effect for most of Q3. Also, Performance plus will give a bit of a boost. So I'll say US delivery ASP will go up about $5.5k from Q2 or around $98-99k.
There's a lot of assumptions here, but I'm pretty confident in a 100k-102k ASP for Q3.
RationalOptimist
Member
Thanks for all your hard work, Sleepy, and others. It seems to me that a lot of the recent volatility in stock price has been driven by growing investor awareness of -- and puzzlement in -- the VIN data. At one point it appeared to be surging like crazy, and I truly believe that helped fuel the rise to $190+, boosted by numerous Internet claims that 6-7k+ cars would be delivered in Q3. Then, as VIN trends tailed off, and Q3 estimates came back down to the 5500-ish level, confidence of the biggest bulls ebbed a little and the stock became vulnerable. Today a Seeking Alpha article uses the recent fall to claim both that Q3 will be beat and that US sales are plummeting. I hope Elon and team will take the opportunity tonight to clarify how the VIN system works (eg, what is the range of timings between issuance of VIN and a car entering production, and are there sometimes gaps in the numerical sequence?) and/or introduce some other sales tracker. The current situation seems to me to create risks of people getting hurt.
One other note: Elon opened the last shareholders letter by reminding people that maximizing profit is NOT the company's goal any time soon. I personally am not that concerned whether EPS hit, smashed or missed. Much more relevant to me is whether they communicate that demand is rising fast and that all the pieces are in place for a 2x production ramp-up for 2014. If they say that clearly, Wednesday will be bright green.
One other note: Elon opened the last shareholders letter by reminding people that maximizing profit is NOT the company's goal any time soon. I personally am not that concerned whether EPS hit, smashed or missed. Much more relevant to me is whether they communicate that demand is rising fast and that all the pieces are in place for a 2x production ramp-up for 2014. If they say that clearly, Wednesday will be bright green.
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