WhiteStar
Member
Australia is potentially a big growth market. From zero to potentially thousand(s) in a year or 2, if main route Superchargers are in place. You're right about us getting a much faster rollout than Texas regardless, 16 planned within 2 years. Seems to be the same chicken/egg scenario here as there though.
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Interesting reading, even though it was written in 2013 with only the US market in mind, many of the assumptions would remain much the same for Australia and the rest of the world, for Tesla to become the dominant global player in fast charging. Also interesting are the cost estimates for each Supercharger station and the breakdown of those costs.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1300141-supercharging-tesla
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The rapid-recharging business offers at least as great an opportunity for Tesla as the electric car business. While Tesla's advanced electric car technology and IP gives them competitive advantage in the car business, Tesla would need to raise vast amounts of capital and displace powerful, established incumbents before reaping the benefits of industry dominance building cars. By building only enough cars to demonstrate the superiority and lower costs of their technology, licensing partners, then taking on the rapid-recharging business, Tesla can grow dramatically without having to compete against existing car companies and without needing to raise outsized amounts of new capital.
Pursuing the SuperCharger business, leveraged by their electric car expertise, IP, large car maker partners, and innovative 'free' pricing, positions Tesla to dominate the rapid-recharging business and profit from disruption as electric motors and batteries replace ICEs and gas tanks. While their partners and licensees drive disruption of the car business, Tesla can make a bundle for their shareholders by dominating the rapid-recharging business that enables electric car road trips.
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The capital cost for one 'nominal' SuperCharger station is estimated at just under $1.2 million.
For Australia, assume these costs are considerably higher without the availability of State and Federal government incentives and credits, around 35% higher plus inflation and currency conversion. That's approaching $2 million per station with 6 chargers and 12 slots. Some Australian routes, at least initially, could be serviced by stations with 3 chargers and 6 slots, reducing startup costs significantly. With plans for around 16 Superchargers to link the east coast cities by the end of 2016, cost would not seem to be the limiting factor.
If this study is accurate, the costs aren't trivial but are still insignificant when you contemplate the vision of building the global electric intercity network on all 6 continents and the potential for large income streams into the future. With more manufacturers joining the partnership, there's plentiful upside from increasing volumes. With the introduction of battery storage into Superchargers, the equation becomes even more favourable. Since Tesla have announced they’re looking to power the network in Australia with solar energy, batteries make even more sense here.
Fundamental is the idea that, in an otherwise slow take-up market, fast implementation of charging infrastructure will drive uptake of EV’s in general and Tesla & partner manufacturers in particular. In the absence of government support that exists in every other market, in the short term here in Australia, it’s up to Tesla to be the catalyst for change until governments catch up.
