Autonomous Car Progress

[loquitur]

Selling something you don't have is sleazy at best, and dishonest at worst.

You mean like "dollar stores", which sell very few things for a dollar? Yup.

Keep working on FSD, and sell it when it actually exists. Until then, sell what you actually have, without the empty promises.

They actually are selling what they have, a driver-assist system. It's just the marketing name that
is misleading, and reportedly the marketing has been dialed-back in Germany where they tend
to be more literal.

I'm recycling the "dollar store" analogy made from elsewhere. Further, it reminds me of a song called
"Shirt" from the Bonzo Dog Doo Dah Band, where a character got irked after taking
his laundry into a place called "59 Minute Cleaners". You can imagine the ensuing complaints,
but "it's just the name of the shop, dearie". I have paid thousands for "FSD" and enjoy
it very much, but you're saying I am not as gullible as I'm supposed to be?

 

[JHCCAZ]

You mean like "dollar stores", which sell very few things for a dollar? Yup.

Haha, when I was a kid we had a few " dime stores" in town. McCrory's, Woolworth's and one or two smaller local chains. You could buy many items for under a dollar, bur very few for a dime. Still no one said they were liars. I think in the prior generation they were often called "five and dime".

I'd get my allowance, and when I got a raise from 15 cents to a quarter I felt like the boss down there. Still there might be some sheet-metal friction-drive car or spaceship toy costing more, and It was hard to save another week or two to afford it.

 

[daniel]

You mean like "dollar stores", which sell very few things for a dollar? Yup.

They actually are selling what they have, a driver-assist system. It's just the marketing name that
is misleading, and reportedly the marketing has been dialed-back in Germany where they tend
to be more literal.

I'm recycling the "dollar store" analogy made from elsewhere. Further, it reminds me of a song called
"Shirt" from the Bonzo Dog Doo Dah Band, where a character got irked after taking
his laundry into a place called "59 Minute Cleaners". You can imagine the ensuing complaints,
but "it's just the name of the shop, dearie". I have paid thousands for "FSD" and enjoy
it very much, but you're saying I am not as gullible as I'm supposed to be?

Dollar Store might get you into the door with a misleading name, but they only sold what was on the shelf. Tesla promised many, many buyers of "FSD" that their car would drive itself, by itself, with nobody in it. Perhaps you bought "FSD" knowing what you were actually getting, but a lot of people assume that "Full Self-Driving" means that the car is actually fully self-driving, and Elon continues to promise that "very soon" FSD will actually be able to drive itself, by itself, across the country.

When I bought my Model 3, Tesla told me that if I paid for "FSD" my car would become fully autonomous, and I'd better buy it now because if I wait the price will go up. I didn't fall for the flim flam, but a lot of folks did. When you have the best car on the road, why do you have to promise that for an extra ten grand it will become a space ship "real soon"?

Oh, and the last time I was in a dollar store, everything was a dollar. But that was a long time ago so maybe that's no longer the case.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Speaking for myself, I don't want to stop Tesla. I own TSLA stock, I drive a Tesla car, I have Tesla Powerwalls and Tesla control electronics in my solar set-up that provides all my electricity.

I just want Tesla to stop selling something that does not yet exist. Tesla has the best driver-assist system a consumer can buy, in the best cars consumers can buy. Tesla does not need to sell promises of a future technology that does not exist and that in spite of Musk's constant promises of full autonomy "real soon now," is probably years away. Selling something you don't have is sleazy at best, and dishonest at worst.

Keep working on FSD, and sell it when it actually exists. Until then, sell what you actually have, without the empty promises.

They stopped selling it for a while in the last quarter of 2018. Then there was Autonomy day in 2019, and since around then the order page had removed the promises that suggested L4+ when you order FSD. That doesn't free them however of promises from the buyers before then. Elon seemed to think end-to-end L2 would have been achieved by end of 2019 (which obviously didn't happen). And he continues to believe that the improvement from end-to-end L2 would be exponential once there is wide release and that they can reach L4 or L5 levels relatively quickly. From the delays we have seen so far, doesn't seem likely IMO, but I guess we'll see what happens.

 

[daniel]

Some people make a big deal about the fact that the order page no longer promises L5, but Musk's pronouncements sure seem to be saying that, and as CEO he's the chief voice of the company. And it's not necessary: When you have the best cars on the road you don't need to make impossible promises.

 

[loquitur]

I agree with what skeptics of Musk-the-markateer says, short of what complete troglodytic anti-EV types put forth.
Elon Musk exaggerates -- and even Steve Jobs didn't do that, because he didn't promote anything until it was released.

Musk is mostly a puppy dog (regarding basics) who most engineers can see through, though he is a hard-driving
CEO who is molded in the Silicon Valley way.

Having said that, I respect the hell out of what Tesla AI propeller-heads, programmers, and mechanical/electrical
engineers have actually accomplished. I differentiate between what Musk teases on Twitter, and what rubber meets
the road when one buys a Tesla car, plus the amazing functional improvements received thereafter.

Aside: for years computer chess (& game of go) programming progress had to run with with whatever brute force
could accomplish, until the basic algorithms, aided by neural networks, could obtain. A similar staccato progress
is perhaps what is happening here. It may be that we have incredible accomplishments arriving (w/SpaceX too!)
despite (not because) of what the original P. T. Barnum has promoted.

 

[daniel]

I agree with what skeptics of Musk-the-markateer says, short of what complete troglodytic anti-EV types put forth.
Elon Musk exaggerates -- and even Steve Jobs didn't do that, because he didn't promote anything until it was released.

Exactly! Promote (and sell) what you have, not what you hope, or even believe you will have in the future.

Musk is mostly a puppy dog (regarding basics) who most engineers can see through, though he is a hard-driving
CEO who is molded in the Silicon Valley way.

Having said that, I respect the hell out of what Tesla AI propeller-heads, programmers, and mechanical/electrical
engineers have actually accomplished. I differentiate between what Musk teases on Twitter, and what rubber meets
the road when one buys a Tesla car, plus the amazing functional improvements received thereafter.

Yes! While I have no experience of the so-called "FSD" package, the EAP in my car is a truly amazing system that makes driving safer (when used as intended) and more relaxing. What Tesla has accomplished is mind-boggling: the engineers for what they have built, and Musk for pushing it into the mainstream. Not so long ago "electric car" was synonymous with "golf cart" in the public's mind. Now "electric car" means power and torque in the public mind, and this is pretty much entirely due to Tesla.

Sell what you have. No need to promise the moon. Keep advancing, keep innovating, keep working on FSD, but don't sell it until you have it. Until then, just call it what it is: Not "Full Self-Driving," but Advanced Driver Assist.

 

[hgmichna]

Sell what you have. No need to promise the moon. Keep advancing, keep innovating, keep working on FSD, but don't sell it until you have it. Until then, just call it what it is: Not "Full Self-Driving," but Advanced Driver Assist.

How about Supervised Self-Driving? At least on a multi-lane highway I typically do less than 1% of the physical driving tasks like steering, accelerating and braking. Legally I am the driver, but what I actually do 99% of the time and distance is nothing but watching, i.e. supervising.

Subjectively it feels to me like FSD is doing the driving and I am assisting with some edge cases. It feels similar to a driving teacher with a student driver who is able to do 99% of the driving already on his own, so for the remaining 1% the teacher interferes and takes over.

 

[mark95476]

Tesla is doing fine and don't want or need your help. Tesla the most valuable automobile company in the world right now if you haven't noticed.
Elon is doing fine and doesn't want or need your help. Elon's the richest or second richest person in the world right now if you haven't noticed.

Why are there so many anonymous nicks giving Tesla and Elon advice or telling him what to do? Do you believe that Tesla and Elon view you as a role model and strives to achieve all that you have?

Just a few more days until the end of this quarter. Get in your TSLAQ prayer circle, beg and plead to your idols, and maybe --just maybe-- Tesla will finally go bankwupt as prophesized years ago.

Speaking for myself, I don't want to stop Tesla. I own TSLA stock, I drive a Tesla car, I have Tesla Powerwalls and Tesla control electronics in my solar set-up that provides all my electricity.

I just want Tesla to stop selling something that does not yet exist. Tesla has the best driver-assist system a consumer can buy, in the best cars consumers can buy. Tesla does not need to sell promises of a future technology that does not exist and that in spite of Musk's constant promises of full autonomy "real soon now," is probably years away. Selling something you don't have is sleazy at best, and dishonest at worst.

Keep working on FSD, and sell it when it actually exists. Until then, sell what you actually have, without the empty promises.

 

[daniel]

How about Supervised Self-Driving? At least on a multi-lane highway I typically do less than 1% of the physical driving tasks like steering, accelerating and braking. Legally I am the driver, but what I actually do 99% of the time and distance is nothing but watching, i.e. supervising.

Subjectively it feels to me like FSD is doing the driving and I am assisting with some edge cases. It feels similar to a driving teacher with a student driver who is able to do 99% of the driving already on his own, so for the remaining 1% the teacher interferes and takes over.

Agree entirely. "Supervised Self-Driving" is a better description than "Full Self-Driving."

Tesla is doing fine and don't want or need your help. Tesla the most valuable automobile company in the world right now if you haven't noticed.
Elon is doing fine and doesn't want or need your help. Elon's the richest or second richest person in the world right now if you haven't noticed.

Why are there so many anonymous nicks giving Tesla and Elon advice or telling him what to do? Do you believe that Tesla and Elon view you as a role model and strives to achieve all that you have?

Just a few more days until the end of this quarter. Get in your TSLAQ prayer circle, beg and plead to your idols, and maybe --just maybe-- Tesla will finally go bankwupt as prophesized years ago.

Where the flipping floop did that come from? I'm the biggest Tesla fanboy there is. I drive a Tesla and I own TSLA stock and solar bonds (the bonds originally issued by Solar City and now serviced by Tesla). Why in the name of the FSM would you think I want Tesla to fail?

I just want them to be honest and stop making promises they can't keep.

 

[diplomat33]

Big news! CA DMV authorizes both Cruise and Waymo for commercial autonomous ride-hailing in SF. Both companies can now charge a fee for their autonomous ride-hailing.

The California Department of Motor Vehicles today issued autonomous vehicle deployment permits to Cruise LLC and Waymo LLC, allowing the companies to charge a fee and receive compensation for autonomous services offered to the public.

ODD for Cruise:

The deployment authorization grants Cruise permission to use a fleet of light-duty autonomous vehicles for commercial services on surface streets within designated parts of San Francisco. The vehicles are approved to operate on public roads between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m. at a maximum speed limit of 30 miles per hour and can operate in light rain and light fog.

ODD for Waymo:

Waymo is authorized to use a fleet of light-duty autonomous vehicles for commercial services within parts of San Francisco and San Mateo counties. The vehicles are approved to operate on public roads with a speed limit of no more than 65 mph and can also operate in rain and light fog.

DMV Approves Cruise and Waymo to Use Autonomous Vehicles for Commercial Service in Designated Parts of Bay Area - California DMV

Contact: Office of Public Affairs2415 First Avenue Sacramento, CA 95818(916) 657–6437 | [email protected] FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASESeptember 30, 2021 Sacramento – The California Department of Motor Vehicles today issued autonomous vehicle deployment permits to Cruise LLC and Waymo LLC...

www.dmv.ca.gov

Worth noting that there are now no regulatory roadblocks to Waymo opening their early rider program in SF up to everybody!

 

[EVNow]

Worth noting that there are now no regulatory roadblocks to Waymo opening their early rider program in SF up to everybody!

So, if they don't do it - clearly its because they are not confident in the capabilities of their "driver".

 

[diplomat33]

So, if they don't do it - clearly its because they are not confident in the capabilities of their "driver".

They will do it. It is only a question of when.

PS: there is no need to put driver in quotes. Waymo Driver is an autonomous driver.

 

[EVNow]

They will do it. It is only a question of when.

PS: there is no need to put driver in quotes. Waymo Driver is an autonomous driver.

If they don't do it soon - that means they are confident now.

The quote is for their specific use of the term - which is not the way it is generally used.

 

[rxlawdude]

They will do it. It is only a question of when.

PS: there is no need to put driver in quotes. Waymo Driver is an autonomous driver.

With all-too-human backup. Remote or roving.

 

[Bitdepth]

With all-too-human backup. Remote or roving.

That's an issue because?

 

[rxlawdude]

That's an issue because?

Not totally autonomous. By history.

 

[Bitdepth]

Not totally autonomous. By history.

What history? And what does not totally autonomous mean? Is anyone controlling the car physically, remotely or otherwise?

 

[rxlawdude]

What history? And what does not totally autonomous mean? Is anyone controlling the car physically, remotely or otherwise?

Check out the experience in AZ. The traffic cone debacle illustrated both remote and roving support driver needed to free it. Not autonomous.

 

[Bitdepth]

Check out the experience in AZ. The traffic cone debacle illustrated both remote and roving support driver needed to free it. Not autonomous.

Again still not answering the question. What does not autonomous mean? Is anyone physically, remotely or otherwise controlling the car when it is in autonomous mode?

The traffic cone incident illustrates that autonomous vehicles in its current state can still fail and in so doing a robotaxi company need remote assistance systems and physical assistance in severe cases.