Autonomous Car Progress

[diplomat33]

hmm you can be sure that P2846 will be nicely in line with what MobileEye sees as their business advantage then. That's what standards like this are usually about (having been involved in several and watched the partisan bickering and jostling first hand)

There are over 30 members in the working group for IEEE P2836. So it's not like Mobileye is the only one drafting the standard just to promote their business model. But Mobileye chose to participate in drafting the standard. So they got to make a contribution that will favor their approach. That's just smart. You can't blame a company for joining a group where they get to contribute their approach. Tesla could have joined the working group too and added their input but chose not to.

 

[drtimhill]

There are over 30 members in the working group for IEEE P2836. So it's not like Mobileye is the only one drafting the standard just to promote their business model. But Mobileye chose to participate in drafting the standard. So they got to make a contribution that will favor their approach. That's just smart. You can't blame a company for joining a group where they get to contribute their approach. Tesla could have joined the working group too and added their input but chose not to.

I admire your confidence, though I do not share it

 

[EVNow]

There are over 30 members in the working group for IEEE P2836. So it's not like Mobileye is the only one drafting the standard just to promote their business model. But Mobileye chose to participate in drafting the standard. So they got to make a contribution that will favor their approach. That's just smart. You can't blame a company for joining a group where they get to contribute their approach. Tesla could have joined the working group too and added their input but chose not to.

LOL.

You are talking to people in Seattle area who may have first hand experience with standard setting process that Microsoft and Intel have used for decades.

 

[diplomat33]

LOL.

You are talking to people in Seattle area who may have first hand experience with standard setting process that Microsoft and Intel have used for decades.

Who are these people in Seattle area? And what does standards that Microsoft and Intel use have to do with anything? What are you trying to say? I'm confused.

 

[EVNow]

Who are these people in Seattle area? And what does standards that Microsoft and Intel use have to do with anything? What are you trying to say? I'm confused.

There are several of us from Seattle area, including the user you were replying to. Any / many of them could have participated in several standards organizations and represented companies like Intel. So they understand how this works in terms of trying to gain market advantage through use of standards. Obviously I can’t say more.

 

[diplomat33]

There are several of us from Seattle area, including the user you were replying to. Any / many of them could have participated in several standards organizations and represented companies like Intel. So they understand how this works in terms of trying to gain market advantage through use of standards. Obviously I can’t say more.

And? I am not denying that Mobileye may gain a market advantage from IEEE P2846. Like I said, they were smart enough to get involved and help shape the standard. I am just pointing out that there are lots of other companies involved in IEEE P2846 as well, it's not just Mobileye. And just because Mobileye or other companies may gain market advantage from the standard does not make the standard less legit, if that is what you are trying to imply. IMO, IEEE P2846 looks to be a very good standard that will set important assumptions for safe AVs. And Tesla can't cry if the standards don't work in their favor since they could have participated and chose not to.

 

[EVNow]

And? I am not denying that Mobileye may gain a market advantage from IEEE P2846. Like I said, they were smart enough to get involved and help shape the standard. I am just pointing out that there are lots of other companies involved in IEEE P2846 as well, it's not just Mobileye. And just because Mobileye or other companies may gain market advantage from the standard does not make the standard less legit, if that is what you are trying to imply. IMO, IEEE P2846 looks to be a very good standard that will set important assumptions for safe AVs. And Tesla can't cry if the standards don't work in their favor since they could have participated and chose not to.

When you know someone is likely to hack the process to circumvent “free market”, the correct thing to do is to refuse to participate and attack it from outside.

ps : It’s sad that you think of all the dirty politics as “smart”.

 

[diplomat33]

When you know someone is likely to hack the process to circumvent “free market”, the correct thing to do is to refuse to participate and attack it from outside.

Nobody is circumventing the free market. 30+ companies simply got together to create a standard that sets some assumptions for safe autonomous driving. Those assumptions will be true regardless of the free market. If an AV fails the standard, it will mean that the AV was unsafe, not that the free market was rigged.

 

[Bladerskb]

When you know someone is likely to hack the process to circumvent “free market”, the correct thing to do is to refuse to participate and attack it from outside.

ps : It’s sad that you think of all the dirty politics as “smart”.

The classic Tesla conspiracy theory and victim mentality never ceases to amaze me.

 

[diplomat33]

ps : It’s sad that you think of all the dirty politics as “smart”.

It is not "dirty politics". It's 30+ companies drafting a standard for safe AVs.

 

[Sporty]

And? I am not denying that Mobileye may gain a market advantage from IEEE P2846. Like I said, they were smart enough to get involved and help shape the standard. I am just pointing out that there are lots of other companies involved in IEEE P2846 as well, it's not just Mobileye. And just because Mobileye or other companies may gain market advantage from the standard does not make the standard less legit, if that is what you are trying to imply. IMO, IEEE P2846 looks to be a very good standard that will set important assumptions for safe AVs. And Tesla can't cry if the standards don't work in their favor since they could have participated and chose not to.

.
They certainly can cry about it even if they didn’t participate. They’ll just have less opportunity to adjust the bits they don’t agree with.

Is this going to be a standard for testing of auto driving cars?

 

[diplomat33]

By the way, if Mobileye does gain a market advantage from IEEE P2846, it is only because Mobileye developed a good driving policy that makes their AVs safe. AVs that conform to safety standards will likely be safer and safer AVs tend to gain market advantage!

 

[diplomat33]

Is this going to be a standard for testing of auto driving cars?

At this point, I don't think IEEE P2846 is a requirement for testing. But it is possible that regulators could adopt it and make it a requirement.

 

[drtimhill]

Nobody is circumventing the free market. 30+ companies simply got together to create a standard that sets some assumptions for safe autonomous driving. Those assumptions will be true regardless of the free market. If an AV fails the standard, it will mean that the AV was unsafe, not that the free market was rigged.

Ideally yes. In reality? it's not so clear-cut. Generally speaking, you get stuff like "the car must be able to do XXX" where XXX turns out to be a function that vendor Y (on the committee) has locked up in a patent/IP. Sure, there is "fair use" for most standards that involve IP, but "fair use" doesnt mean "zero cost". One can argue for hours if such manipulation is "free market" or not (as you note, Tesla chose not to participate, so is that a free market choice? What if they were not invited?). But in reality many standards (e.g. almost all cell-phone standards) are crafted to favor one vendor over another, though you may have to read them very carefully to realize that. Go look at WiFi, or GSM, or LTE, or ...

 

[diplomat33]

Ideally yes. In reality? it's not so clear-cut. Generally speaking, you get stuff like "the car must be able to do XXX" where XXX turns out to be a function that vendor Y (on the committee) has locked up in a patent/IP. Sure, there is "fair use" for most standards that involve IP, but "fair use" doesnt mean "zero cost". One can argue for hours if such manipulation is "free market" or not (as you note, Tesla chose not to participate, so is that a free market choice? What if they were not invited?). But in reality many standards (e.g. almost all cell-phone standards) are crafted to favor one vendor over another, though you may have to read them very carefully to realize that. Go look at WiFi, or GSM, or LTE, or ...

From what I have seen of IEEE P2846, I don't see how it could favor one vendor over another. The standard is technologically agnostic. Also, the standard sets assumptions like "cars should maintain a safe distance from other vehicles" and provides an equation for determining a safe distance from other vehicles based on braking power, distance, velocity etc Not sure how an equation for determining safe distances would favor one vendor over another? Sure, it could favor Mobileye since they already have RSS that does that. But I would think every AV company would want their AV to keep a safe distance from other road users. And everybody can use that equation in their FSD stack. So a standard that says how to do that, would help everybody. The bottom line is that if the standard sets good assumptions that make AVs safer, that is a good thing in my view.

 

[Bladerskb]

Does anyone have more information on Zeekr 101 and Supervision ? What does it do now and is Mobileye and Geely promising in the future ? How much they are charging for the ADAS ?

I will respond to this even though i know you are only bringing this up to gain-say.
But the OTAs are not out yet, the first ADAS OTA is aimed at early Feb and there will be rapid updates after that according to reports. The complete system (e2e highway and city streets) should be out by the first half of 2022.

The price is:

- Lane keeping, ACC, Active Safety and Pro-active Safety Systems (Free)
- Full Scenario Highway Driving ($2,500)
- Door to Door City Driving ($5,000)

So less than half the price of FSD Beta ($12)

 

[Terminator857]

@Bladerskb ,
When we will see a similar Mobileye system in the U.S.? Will it cut FSD pricing drastically when it arrives?

 

[diplomat33]

WeRide hit a nice autonomous driving milestone:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1483089793177518081

 

[diplomat33]

Found this interesting infographic on self-driving cars:

INFOGRAPHIC – Reasons to favor and oppose self-driving cars

Autonomous cars news, technology, jobs, companies, community

www.selfdrivingcars360.com

I think the statistics against self-driving cars show that there is a lot of public hesitation about self-driving cars because it is a new technology. 84% say they would not be comfortable riding in a self-driving car that did not have the option to take over. 56% say they would decline to ride in a self-driving car if it was offered to them. 3 out of 4 US voters say that deployment of self-driving cars should be deferred until the technology is proven safe.

I think this is why making sure that self-driving cars are safe enough is so key. If we deploy self-driving cars too soon and there are too many accidents, the public will turn against them. But if we make sure the tech is safe enough, geofence if needed to make it safer, and the public has a good and safe experience, then the public will gradually trust the tech more. This is another reason why we need good safety standards that every AV has to comply with. 1) The safety standards will make AVs safer. 2) If the public knows that the AV is compliant with safety regulations and standards, they are more likely to trust the AV.

 

[EVNow]

3 out of 4 US voters say that deployment of self-driving cars should be deferred until the technology is proven safe.

Half the voters think Climate Change is a hoax, EVs are useless etc. We can’t live by what the lowest denominator demands.

BTW, these luddites will not use a newer technology until they see others use them.