So Waymo is just as a disterous money put as Cruise
View attachment 902784
While his numbers may be factually correct, I think his conclusions are wrong:
1) Hotz is making a very simplistic argument. Many big companies lost billions before they became giants. By his argument, we would not have Apple, Tesla or Amazon since they all lost billions before they became giants. Companies often have to lose money in the beginning in order to make money later. He is not taking into account the future potential or how all the money Waymo is losing now is a necessary investment in order to scale later. And if Waymo is losing so much money it is because they are "going big". Their goal is actual driverless cars that can scale everywhere. Bigger moonshots require bigger investments!
2) Waymo and Argo are not the same. Argo did not have any driverless services. Waymo does. Waymo has proven they can deploy a real driverless robotaxi service. Argo did not.
3) He says AVs are a "research problem". Well yeah at first. We had to solve difficult perception, prediction and planning problems. We had to solve ML problems. We had to invent new ML techniques. But Waymo has done tremendous ML work and has much more reliable autonomous driving now than that they had before. I am not saying there isn't more research to be done, there always is, but Waymo has legit driverless that is deployed NOW. Waymo's problem is becoming more of a logistics problem than a research problem.
4) Waymo is the clear AV leader with now provable driverless tech. It would make no sense to shut them down but not shut down Cruise or Zoox or Motional who have lesser tech. It would make more sense to shut down Comma. They are a tiny company. They don't have the resources to solve L4 or L5. All Comma can do is basic L2. They don't have the resources to compete with GM, Mobileye or Tesla for the ADAS/AV consumer car market. Comma's entire business model is to fill the void of older cars that don't have L2. Inevitably, carmakers will start deploying L4 on their vehicles and then Comma will just be a small niche. Waymo has real L4 and has potential to scale. To keep a tiny company that can only do basic L2 and can't survive the coming L4 on consumer cars but shut down the leader with provable driverless tech that is actually starting to scale legit robotaxis, is backwards.
5) Lastly, We should point out his clear agenda. He just wants to promote his company. And he just wants to shut down Waymo because they are the leader in AVs so that his little company will have an easier time. He thinks if Waymo goes away, he can get investors to invest in his company. So he has a clear bias and interest to stop Waymo.