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Autonomous Car Progress

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You can now order Polestar 3 with Luminair Iris Lidar and NVIDIA DRIVE Orin.



Option price?
 
You can now order Polestar 3 with Luminair Iris Lidar and NVIDIA DRIVE Orin.



But what automated driving will it support?
 
Saw this on reddit. It has some highlights from the GM earnings call on Cruise's progress:
  • Cruise currently has approximately 300 AVs across all their operating cities.
  • They have run/operated 130 AVs simultaneously. That's 30% increase from their previous milestone of 100 simultaneous AVs.
  • They are closing on 1,000,000 driverless miles. Most recent 100,000 driverless miles came 8 times faster than the first 100,000 driverless miles.
  • Origin vehicle production will start this year, more likely towards the end of the year.
  • They will expand to more cities in 2023, but unfortunately NO specific names were mentioned. Also, Kyle mentioned that higher priority is expanding the current geofences and operating hours (including daytimes) in SF, Austin, and Phoenix. So, the main focus for now seems to be cleaning and expanding operations in these three cities.
  • Most importantly, GM had a strong 2022 financial year generating $10.5B in free cash flow, so they can continue to fund Cruise operations at least for 2023.
  • Cruise spent approximately $1.9 Billion in 2022 and that number is supposed to increase this year as they scale.

Source:
So Waymo is just as a disterous money put as Cruise

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So Waymo is just as a disterous money put as Cruise

View attachment 902784

While his numbers may be factually correct, I think his conclusions are wrong:

1) Hotz is making a very simplistic argument. Many big companies lost billions before they became giants. By his argument, we would not have Apple, Tesla or Amazon since they all lost billions before they became giants. Companies often have to lose money in the beginning in order to make money later. He is not taking into account the future potential or how all the money Waymo is losing now is a necessary investment in order to scale later. And if Waymo is losing so much money it is because they are "going big". Their goal is actual driverless cars that can scale everywhere. Bigger moonshots require bigger investments!

2) Waymo and Argo are not the same. Argo did not have any driverless services. Waymo does. Waymo has proven they can deploy a real driverless robotaxi service. Argo did not.

3) He says AVs are a "research problem". Well yeah at first. We had to solve difficult perception, prediction and planning problems. We had to solve ML problems. We had to invent new ML techniques. But Waymo has done tremendous ML work and has much more reliable autonomous driving now than that they had before. I am not saying there isn't more research to be done, there always is, but Waymo has legit driverless that is deployed NOW. Waymo's problem is becoming more of a logistics problem than a research problem.

4) Waymo is the clear AV leader with now provable driverless tech. It would make no sense to shut them down but not shut down Cruise or Zoox or Motional who have lesser tech. It would make more sense to shut down Comma. They are a tiny company. They don't have the resources to solve L4 or L5. All Comma can do is basic L2. They don't have the resources to compete with GM, Mobileye or Tesla for the ADAS/AV consumer car market. Comma's entire business model is to fill the void of older cars that don't have L2. Inevitably, carmakers will start deploying L4 on their vehicles and then Comma will just be a small niche. Waymo has real L4 and has potential to scale. To keep a tiny company that can only do basic L2 and can't survive the coming L4 on consumer cars but shut down the leader with provable driverless tech that is actually starting to scale legit robotaxis, is backwards.

5) Lastly, We should point out his clear agenda. He just wants to promote his company. And he just wants to shut down Waymo because they are the leader in AVs so that his little company will have an easier time. He thinks if Waymo goes away, he can get investors to invest in his company. So he has a clear bias and interest to stop Waymo.
 
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Waymo reaches 1M driverless miles! And Dolgov says that a good chunk of those driverless miles come from 24/7 operations in difficult parts of SF and downtown Phoenix.

Driverless miles include:
1M+ left turns
1.5M unprotected intersections
2.3M traffic lights
33% of driverless miles were on roads between 36-45 mph

 
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Waymo reaches 1M driverless miles! And Dolgov says that a good chunk of those driverless miles come from 24/7 operations in difficult parts of SF and downtown Phoenix.

Driverless miles include:
1M+ left turns
1.5M unprotected intersections
2.3M traffic lights
33% of driverless miles were on roads between 36-45 mph

A guess at how this breaks down. Waymo One in Chandler went driverless in October 2020. A Waymo study quoted 65k-ish driverless miles during a period (6-12 months??) before that. I'm going to call it 100k total miles before they went driverless for public riders.

Statements they made led me to guess ~50 trips per day in Chandler, or 500 miles/day including deadhead. That's ~15k miles/month or ~420k in the 28 months since going driverless. I'll arbitrarily round that up to 500k.

Downtown Phoenix went driverless for Trusted Testers last August and for the public in November. Say 500 miles/day for TTs and 2000/day (4x Chandler) since opening to the public. So ~40k + ~180k for 220k total. SF went driverless for Trusted Testers in November. They averaged 250-ish miles/day in late November but apparently ramped a lot in December. Call it 1000 miles/day for 70k total.

They did driverless employee rides before Trusted Testers in downtown Phoenix and SF. Maybe 10k miles each? That gets me to 910k mile total. Where am I too low -- Chandler, downtown Phoenix or San Francisco?
 
Where am I too low -- Chandler, downtown Phoenix or San Francisco?

Probably downtown Phoenix or SF since those are the two areas they seemed to be really focused on recently. Maybe the recent airport run they added to Phoenix? Or maybe employees doing more driverless testing in the Business District of SF? There was anecdotal evidence of Waymo adding a bunch new people on their waitlist for SF so that could maybe explain the extra driverless miles?
 
I had a thought. I think Waymo could do a tier pricing system based on vehicle type and number of occupants. I think Uber and Lyft do this where you can pay more to ride in a nicer car. The Waymo I-Paces are more expensive and more luxurious cars. So they could be a higher tier pricing. And when Waymo does start deploying the Geely robotaxi, that is a cheaper, more basic vehicle, it could be a lower tier pricing. Also, you could pay more to get a vehicle all by yourself or pay a cheaper rate if you are willing to share the ride with strangers. This would give customers some pricing options based on what type of ride they want and help Waymo make more money. Also, making rides more expensive if you ride alone or cheaper if you ride with other people, would encourage ride sharing which could help reduce number of vehicles on the road and help with congestion.