Autonomous Car Progress

[stopcrazypp]

I disagree. Press releases are official corporate statements that are vetted by legal and public relations of all companies involved. They usually involve a major announcement like a business deal, expansion, new product etc... They actually carry a lot of weight since there can be legal consequences if the press release makes false statements. Elon's tweets are public statements by the CEO. They are definitely not vetted by legal or public relations. They are usually just his personal musings.

Actually since the SEC settlement, Elon has been required to have his tweets reviewed by legal. Although he is fighting that requirement, he lost in court about it.
Elon Musk loses bid to end SEC 'muzzle' over tweets

On the other hand, although press releases carry potential liability for publicly traded companies, they generally are not legally required to be reviewed by a legal department (although it may make sense to do so). In fact, ironically, many social media accounts of large companies are managed by a relatively low level employee or contractor and sometimes they go rogue, but there's not the same legal consequences given they don't have an agreement with SEC that tweets must be reviewed by legal.

 

[EVNow]

An unedited video is more trustworthy than an edited video.

Which would you trust more and why ?

or

 

[ThomasD]

Why does the system work good for this person but not for others?

 

[stopcrazypp]

Why does the system work good for this person but not for others?

If you are referring to the Tesla system, it was essentially primarily trained in the most populated areas of California (like Bay Area and LA area) and well tuned to that environment. Tesla even dabbled in some HD map gathering in the past there, and likely still uses that data. Also Tesla has a disproportionate market share in those areas of California vs other states or even other areas in CA (so any data gathered for training the NN would skew heavily to CA sourced data). As such, even for AP, the people most likely to have a positive experience are in those areas of California (for me personally, I have a great experience with radar AP, while others have much worse experience, which I suspect largely has to do with this).

Another factor in particular is Whole Mars Catalog is a well known member of the Beta Early Access Program, which means he has higher priority than others to getting the most recent version. However, this can be a mixed blessing, given sometimes the software regresses.

The cynic will say the reason is he picks the most successful trips to showcase. This may very well be the case, but it requires the car to still be good enough to perform for that long in the first place. A year or two ago, it would have been impossible. I'm sure also on the flip side, you can choose some route in the US the system is less well tuned for and it'll still be impossible even today for that route.

 

[EVNow]

Why does the system work good for this person but not for others?

Wrong thread - but I think there is a steep learning curve with FSD. You need to know when to intervene and when to let it go. It takes a lot of time (and nerve) to figure this out.

 

[drtimhill]

Yes, I know I am sharing a promo video. I know it is cherry picked. I am not claiming that it proves that it works every time. That is the whole reason why I put a disclaimer before the video!

Now, if your point is that we should not share cherry picked promo videos period. Well, like I said, I thought a cherry picked promo video would still be interesting to share since I put a disclaimer first.

No, my point is that many who are critical of Tesla's approach chastise them for being overly optimistic (well, Elon) about FSD, but seem to lower the bar when it comes to the competition. I detect a hint of conformation bias in some of the positions in this thread.

 

[diplomat33]

Which would you trust more and why ?

or

They are both promo videos, just one is official and the other isn't. The Pony video is an official company promo video. The Whole Mars video is an unaffiliated promo video by a Tesla shill and a TSLA Bull who is invested in making FSD beta look good to make the stock go up. Whole Mars only picks easy routes as we see in the video to only only showcase the good and avoid the bad. The Pony video is also just showcasing the good and hiding the bad. Neither video is proof of reliability everywhere. They are both cherry picked videos since they only show what the author of the video wants us to see and don't show us the whole picture. Cherry picked videos cannot prove reliability everywhere.

 

[Madmolecule]

don't know what all the concern is about. It works amazing, just check out this video from 2016. Just a few corner cases and tweaking the model. Elon should stop sandbagging by calling a finished product, beta, and call FSD finished and wonderful. The continued beta is keeping the stock down and prohibiting me from starting my robotaxi business.

 

[EVNow]

They are both promo videos, just one is official and the other isn't. The Pony video is an official company promo video. The Whole Mars video is an unaffiliated promo video by a Tesla shill and a TSLA Bull who is invested in making FSD beta look good to make the stock go up. Whole Mars only picks easy routes as we see in the video to only only showcase the good and avoid the bad. The Pony video is also just showcasing the good and hiding the bad. Neither video is proof of reliability everywhere. They are both cherry picked videos since they only show what the author of the video wants us to see and don't show us the whole picture. Cherry picked videos cannot prove reliability everywhere.

There is one BIG difference you can't apparently figure out - which shows your blindside.

Omar doesn't have hundreds of people working for him. He can't run dozens of times and put out one perfect video. That makes his videos more trustworthy - or less untrustworthy - than Pony's. Ofcourse, if things had gone wrong, Omar may not have published the video. I don't know whether the route is easy or not (unless you know LA very well, you are just speculating there but presenting as the "truth").

Let us think about this logically - let us assume FSD is actually very good. How would Omar's video be different ? How would someone who is not a "shill" produce a video that is different ?

ps : This is all academic - since we all have FSD and can experience it ourselfs. Those who put in enough time behind the wheel can easily get many no-disengagement trips. I think about 50% of my trips are zero disengagement.

 

[diplomat33]

There is one BIG difference you can't apparently figure out - which shows your blindside.

Omar doesn't have hundreds of people working for him. He can't run dozens of times and put out one perfect video. That makes his videos more trustworthy - or less untrustworthy - than Pony's. Ofcourse, if things had gone wrong, Omar may not have published the video.

Omar has a clear financial agenda since he is a TSLA Bull and investor. Heck, his Twitter page reads like an ad page for Tesla. He literally has tweets like "Tesla is the only car that will drive you to the airport with no interventions, buy a Tesla today". He is literally advertising for Tesla! How can you not see that he has an interest in only showing the good and hiding the bad? And yes, he absolutely can do a drive dozens of times and only put out one perfect video. He does it all the time. And if he has a bad drive and does not publish it, that by definition, means that he is cherry picking, since he is deliberately only selecting good drives to post. The fact that you can't see that Omar is not objective, shows your bias and your blind side.

I don't know whether the route is easy or not (unless you know LA very well, you are just speculating there but presenting as the "truth").

I don't need to speculate about the route or know LA. I watched the video. You can simply watch the video and judge for yourself if the route was challenging or not. There was a lot of going straight through controlled intersections, lots of highway driving, some lane changes to follow routes, no a lot of traffic. It was not a difficult route.

 

[EVNow]

Omar has a clear financial agenda since he is a TSLA Bull and investor.

So are most of the people here (including me - see my sig). Duh.

So what ? Pony PR gets paid directly by Pony ! Pony has absolute control over what Pony PR publishes !!

So according to you anyone who is smart enough to have invested in TSLA is a "shill". That is stupid.

But according to you - people who work for Tesla competitors are "experts" who should be believed. By the same token anyone who has GOOG (or any competitor) shares should declare their clear financial motivation to disparage Tesla. Tell us about your investments. Since you always write pro-Waymo and anti-Tesla posts, clearly you are a Waymo shill.

 

[diplomat33]

So are most of the people here (including me - see my sig).

Yes and as a TSLA investor, that means you have pro-Tesla financial interests. Nothing wrong with investing in Tesla but explains why you are so biased against Tesla's competition and try to "cancel" any news about Tesla's competition in this thread.

And for the record, I own a Tesla Model 3 but I have no stock at all. No TSLA stock, no Mobileye stock, no Google stock, nothing. So I have no investments in Tesla or any Tesla competitors.

So according to you anyone who is smart enough to have invested in TSLA is a "shill". That is stupid.

No. Don't put words in my mouth. Being a TSLA investor does not make you a shill. I am not saying Omar is a shill because he is a TSLA investor, I am saying he is a shill because he actively shills on Twitter.

 

[EVNow]

No. Don't put words in my mouth. Being a TSLA investor does not make you a shill.

So, what makes him a "shill" ? BTW, you can't make up your own meaning. Just like I can't call you a "fraud" with a meaning different from the actual English language meaning.

Explain to me why Omar is a shill. Prove it.

No being a "fan" of Tesla doesn't make someone a shill nor does investing in Tesla.

 

[Dewg]

I've got it!! Everyone arguing on this thread has to go buy Waymo, Cruise, MobilEye, and Zoox stock in addition to the Tesla they already own. Then everyone will be equally invested in everyone succeeding! Problem solved - you're welcome.

 

[diplomat33]

But according to you - people who work for Tesla competitors are "experts" who should be believed.

They are not experts because they work for Tesla competitors, they are experts because they have lots of experience in their respective fields. Karpathy worked for Tesla but I consider him an expert in his field. Anguelov has decades of experience in ML so yes, I consider him an expert in ML because of his experience, not because he works for Waymo.

Tell us about your investments.

I have no investments at all. I closed my investment account.

 

[EVNow]

They are not experts because they work for Tesla competitors, they are experts because they have lots of experience in their respective fields. Karpathy worked for Tesla but I consider him an expert in his field. Anguelov has decades of experience in ML so yes, I consider him an expert in ML because of his experience, not because he works for Waymo.

But - because he works for Waymo he is going to toe the company line and that makes him suspect. Just like what Ashok says. You have to be skeptical.

I have no investments at all. I closed my investment account.

So may be you are jealous of people with TSLA investments who are doing well

Nothing wrong with investing in Tesla but explains why you are so biased against Tesla's competition and try to "cancel" any news about Tesla's competition in this thread.

What - you are going to start using ultra-rightwing language ?

"Be skeptical - don't be gullible" <> "cancelling".

 

[diplomat33]

So, what makes him a "shill" ? BTW, you can't make up your own meaning. Just like I can't call you a "fraud" with a meaning different from the actual English language meaning.

Explain to me why Omar is a shill. Prove it.

shill
[SHil]

NOUN

1. an accomplice of a hawker, gambler, or swindler who acts as an enthusiastic customer to entice or encourage others:

Omar is a Tesla shill because he fits the definition. He actively encourages and entices others to support and buy Tesla. He also goes out of his way to disparage Tesla's competition.

 

[EVNow]

shill
[SHil]

NOUN

1. an accomplice of a hawker, gambler, or swindler who acts as an enthusiastic customer to entice or encourage others:

Omar is a Tesla shill because he fits the definition. He actively encourages and entices others to support and buy Tesla. He also goes out of his way to disparage Tesla's competition.

The key word is "act".

Is Omar acting or is he genuinely a fan of Tesla ?

Prove that he is acting and not being a genuine fan.

ps : I tell people to buy Tesla cars all the time - and EVs from over a decade. I'm not "acting". I think that is good for the environment and I'm an "activist" in that sense. That doesn't make me a "shill" for EVs.

 

[diplomat33]

But - because he works for Waymo he is going to toe the company line and that makes him suspect. Just like what Ashok says. You have to be skeptical.

I think you should be a bit more open minded to other experts. People who have lots of experience in their field might just have something valuable to say. You should not dismiss experts just because they don't work for Tesla. I listen to experts from all areas because I value their experience, especially since I am not an expert in ML. I want to learn from people who are experts in ML.

So may be you are jealous of people with TSLA investments who are doing well

Not at all. If your TSLA account is up. I am happy for you.

ps : I tell people to buy Tesla cars all the time - and EVs from over a decade. I'm not "acting". I think that is good for the environment and I'm an "activist" in that sense. That doesn't make me a "shill" for EVs.

And by the way, if you talked to my friends, they would probably call me a Tesla shill since I was constantly talking about how much I love my Model 3 (I do it less now because my friends were getting annoyed). Heck, I talked so much about Tesla and my Tesla Model 3 that my best friend got me a Tesla jacket, a Tesla hoodie sweatshirt, SpaceX tshirt, the Tesla ball cap and the Elon biography as Christmas and birthday gifts a few years ago. I frequently wear my Tesla jacket when it is cold and/or my Tesla ball cap almost every day. So it is quite ironic that you accuse me of being a Waymo shill. The fact is that I am big fan of Tesla vehicles who just happens to also like Waymo's tech because I like driverless cars. And people on this forum know I used to be a huge FSD fan, constantly defending Elon's FSD claims, but I got burned when Elon missed one too many FSD deadlines. So I soured on FSD but I still like Tesla cars.

 

[Doggydogworld]

So, what makes him a "shill" ?

Years ago I'd watch Omar's videos. I stopped after I saw him intervene multiple times on sped-up "no intervention" rides. He was a virtuoso -- could take over and get the car back into FSD so fast I couldn't tell what happened unless I slowed YouTube down to 0.25x. He'd also post lots of videos that started or ended in random spots -- gee, wonder what happened right before/after that?

I don't mind a little bias, but I'm not going to sit there and be lied to. There were enough honest FSD testers to watch like Chuck Cook, AIDRIVER, Kim Pacquette, the guy in Chicago whose name I forget that I simply lost interest in Omar.

FSD has improved enough that his early ham-handed techniques are no longer necessary. But Omar is still a shill.